Archive for June, 2010

Stock Market Cyclical Rally Continues to Break Down

Stock Market Cyclical Rally Continues to Break Down

| June 30, 2010

The S&P 500 index closed moderately lower today, moving further below critical support at the February low of the cyclical uptrend from early 2009. If stocks end the week at current levels or lower, the cyclical breakdown will be confirmed as the index moves well below the neckline of the head and shoulders top formation [...]

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Short-term Forecast for June 30, 2010

Short-term Forecast for June 30, 2010

| June 30, 2010

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Consumer Confidence Plunges in June

Consumer Confidence Plunges in June

| June 29, 2010

The Conference Board reported that their Consumer Confidence index declined to 52.9 in June from 62.7 in May. Consensus expectations were for essentially no change, so this sharp drop was yet another one of those “unexpected” negative surprises that we have been forecasting since early this year. Lynn Franco, Director of the Conference Board Consumer [...]

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Case Shiller Home Price Index Increases in April

Case Shiller Home Price Index Increases in April

| June 29, 2010

The Case Shiller Home Price Index for April rose 0.4%, exceeding consensus expectations for a 0.1% decline. The following graph from Calculated Risk displays the 10-city and 20-city seasonal composite indices. Of course, the increase was fueled by the home buyer tax credit that expired at the end of the month, and now that the [...]

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Stocks Plunge Below Key Support Level

Stocks Plunge Below Key Support Level

| June 29, 2010

The S&P 500 index declined over 3% today, closing well below critical long-term congestion support in the 1,060 area. A weekly close at current levels or lower would constitute a breakdown of the head and shoulders top formation that has been developing since late 2009. If confirmed on Friday, this breakdown would be a major [...]

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Short-term Forecast for June 29, 2010

Short-term Forecast for June 29, 2010

| June 29, 2010

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Hussman Issues Recession Warning

Hussman Issues Recession Warning

| June 28, 2010

As long time readers know, John Hussman is one of the very few fund managers whom we hold in high regard. Like us, he uses statistical analysis to identify the most likely scenarios and then aligns his portfolios accordingly. He is usually very careful to acknowledge that anything is possible in the financial markets and [...]

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Treasury Yields Reconfirm Downtrends

Treasury Yields Reconfirm Downtrends

| June 28, 2010

This past weekend, we noted a breakdown on the weekly chart of the 10-year note yield, and today both the 10-year note and the 30-year bond yields closed at new long-term lows, reconfirming their respective downtrends from April. Stocks may be holding above critical support at the bottom of the developing head and shoulders top [...]

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Stocks Continue to Hold Above Critical Long-term Support

Stocks Continue to Hold Above Critical Long-term Support

| June 28, 2010

The S&P 500 index closed slightly lower today, holding above congestion support of the cyclical uptrend from early 2009 near 1,060. Our Cyclical Trend Score (CTS) generated a confirmed long-term sell signal last week, suggesting that a breakdown to new lows will likely occur at some point over the next two to four weeks. Until [...]

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Short-term Forecast for June 28, 2010

Short-term Forecast for June 28, 2010

| June 28, 2010

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