Archive for July, 2010

Restaurant Performance Deteriorates Further in June

Restaurant Performance Deteriorates Further in June

| July 31, 2010

The National Restaurant Association reported that their Restaurant Performance Index (RPI) declined for a third straight month to 99.5 in June, moving further into negative territory as shown on the following graph from Calculated Risk. Any reading below 100 denotes contraction in the industry, and the index has been moving sharply lower after peaking in [...]

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Number of Problem Banks Doubles over the Past Year

Number of Problem Banks Doubles over the Past Year

| July 31, 2010

Bill McBride of Calculated Risk tracks an unofficial list of problem banks and has seen their number more than double over the past year from 389 (with $276 billion in assets) on August 7, 2009 to 808 (with $415 billion in assets) today. The official list maintained by the FDIC–which is not made public–uses the [...]

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Second Quarter GDP Estimated at 2.4%

Second Quarter GDP Estimated at 2.4%

| July 31, 2010

The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported that their initial estimate of second quarter GDP is 2.4%, a decline from the revised first quarter figure of 3.7%. The final phase of the inventory adjustment process contributed nearly half of the reported growth, with real growth coming in at about 1.3%. Real growth figures over the past [...]

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Intermediate-term Forecast for July 31, 2010

Intermediate-term Forecast for July 31, 2010

| July 31, 2010

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Stocks and Treasuries Continue to Disagree

Stocks and Treasuries Continue to Disagree

| July 30, 2010

We have been monitoring a negative divergence between stocks and treasury yields over the past month, and both markets are now forming bearish technical patterns, suggesting that they will likely move lower sometime over the next two weeks. The S&P 500 index has rallied 7% since bottoming at the beginning of the month, but the [...]

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Short-term Forecast for July 30, 2010

Short-term Forecast for July 30, 2010

| July 30, 2010

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The Stock Market Approaches an Important Inflection Point

The Stock Market Approaches an Important Inflection Point

| July 29, 2010

The initial estimate of second quarter GDP will be released tomorrow morning, just as stocks approach an important inflection point across multiple time frames. The topping formation that we have been monitoring for the past several months still favors an eventual breakdown and resumption of the secular bear market from 2000, but what happens over [...]

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Short-term Forecast for July 29, 2010

Short-term Forecast for July 29, 2010

| July 29, 2010

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Durable Goods Orders Unexpectedly Decline in June

Durable Goods Orders Unexpectedly Decline in June

| July 28, 2010

The Census Bureau reported that new orders for manufactured durable goods decreased 1.0% in June, whereas consensus expectations were for an increase of 1.0%. “New orders for manufactured durable goods in June decreased $2.0 billion or 1.0 percent to $190.5 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This was the second consecutive monthly decrease and [...]

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Markets Await Initial Estimate of Second Quarter GDP

Markets Await Initial Estimate of Second Quarter GDP

| July 28, 2010

The initial estimate of second quarter GDP will be released on Friday by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, and with consensus expectations for growth of 2.5%, we believe there is substantial risk of disappointment. Recall that of the reported 2.7% growth in the first quarter, all but 0.9% of it was a result of [...]

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