Archive for July 14th, 2010

Is Bernanke Out of Ammunition?

Is Bernanke Out of Ammunition?

| July 14, 2010

Paul Krugman, an extremely gloomy bear who recently suggested that we are in the early stages of a third depression, wrote an interesting piece today regarding the liquidity trap facing Ben Bernanke and the US Federal Reserve. “The question is whether, at the zero bound, the Fed has the ability to increase aggregate demand — [...]

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Latest Inventory Data Continue to Suggest that Adjustment Period is Over

Latest Inventory Data Continue to Suggest that Adjustment Period is Over

| July 14, 2010

The Census Bureau reported that manufacturers’ and trade inventories were up slightly in May from the prior month, and the massive adjustment that produced the majority of the reported GDP growth in the last two quarters has very likely run its course. Reported GDP growth was 5.9% in the fourth quarter of 2009 and 2.7% [...]

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Mortgage Purchase Applications Trend Down to New Long-term Low

Mortgage Purchase Applications Trend Down to New Long-term Low

| July 14, 2010

The Mortgage Bankers Association reported that their Purchase Index decreased another 3.1% last week, moving down to the lowest level since late 1996. This persistent downtrend shows no sign of forming a meaningful bottom anytime soon, which is what we would expect as housing sector valuations are likely heading down to new long-term lows as [...]

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Retail Sales Decline More than Expected in June

Retail Sales Decline More than Expected in June

| July 14, 2010

The Census Bureau reported that retail sales declined 0.5% in June, whereas consensus expectations were for a drop of only 0.2%. Sales have now dropped for two months in a row, and the uptrend from early 2009 is in danger of rolling over as shown on the following graph from Calculated Risk. For now, the [...]

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Short-term Forecast for July 14, 2010

Short-term Forecast for July 14, 2010

| July 14, 2010

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