Archive for July 15th, 2010

Confirmed Dow Theory Sell Signal? Not So Fast…

Confirmed Dow Theory Sell Signal? Not So Fast…

| July 15, 2010

Dow Theory is concerned primarily with values and market behavior. It provides a useful framework for analyzing trends and forecasting likely developments moving forward. There is also something known as a classic Dow Theory sell signal, which often foretells a change in the primary (cyclical) trend of the stock market. The signal itself is relatively [...]

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The Case for Deflation Revisited

The Case for Deflation Revisited

| July 15, 2010

We have been avid readers of economists Van R. Hoisington and Lacy H. Hunt since being introduced to their research by the venerable John Mauldin, and their recent work has been decidedly in the deflation camp. Whether you agree or disagree with their assessment of the current macro environment, their analysis bears careful consideration, and [...]

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Weekly Unemployment Claims Decline But Remain Elevated

Weekly Unemployment Claims Decline But Remain Elevated

| July 15, 2010

The Department of Labor reported that initial unemployment claims fell to 429,000 last week from 458,000 the week before, but the four-week moving average continues to hold at unhealthy levels above 450,000. The four-week moving average has been holding at recent lows for about six months. At some point, it will start trending again, but [...]

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Manufacturing Data Continue to Weaken

Manufacturing Data Continue to Weaken

| July 15, 2010

Manufacturing data from both the New York and Philadelphia Federal Reserves suggest that the strength of the economic recovery is waning as we head into the second half of 2010. The New York Fed general business conditions index plunged to 5.1 in July from 19.6 in June, and the Philadelphia Fed diffusion index dropped to [...]

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Short-term Forecast for July 15, 2010

Short-term Forecast for July 15, 2010

| July 15, 2010

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