Archive for July, 2010

Short-term Forecast for July 28, 2010

Short-term Forecast for July 28, 2010

| July 28, 2010

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Local Government Job Cuts Projected to Reach 500,000 by 2012

Local Government Job Cuts Projected to Reach 500,000 by 2012

| July 27, 2010

A research report released by the National League of Cities indicates that local government job losses will total 500,000 by 2012 as cities and counties across the country are forced to make deep cuts in services. “In May and June of 2010 NLC, NACo and USCM conducted a survey of cities and counties across the [...]

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Regional Federal Reserve Reports Suggest Manufacturing Remains Weak

Regional Federal Reserve Reports Suggest Manufacturing Remains Weak

| July 27, 2010

Yesterday, the Dallas Federal Reserve reported that manufacturing remains “sluggish” in Texas with several leading indicators signaling a reduction in demand moving forward. “Several indexes for factory activity continued to fall in July. The new orders and growth rate of orders indexes pushed deeper into negative territory, indicating a further contraction of demand. The index [...]

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Short-term Forecast for July 27, 2010

Short-term Forecast for July 27, 2010

| July 27, 2010

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Treasuries Continue to Doubt the Stock Market Rally

Treasuries Continue to Doubt the Stock Market Rally

| July 26, 2010

The identification of divergences is an important part of market analysis. When two data trends that normally have a well-defined, logical relationship stop exhibiting the expected behavior, it is often an important warning sign, and we are seeing this type of divergence between stocks and treasuries since the beginning of the month. The S&P 500 [...]

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New Home Sales Bounce off of Historic Lows

New Home Sales Bounce off of Historic Lows

| July 26, 2010

Here is an actual headline from today’s news wire: “Stocks rise on surge in new home sales.” That sounds really good, doesn’t it? A “surge in new home sales” almost sounds like we’re talking about a recovery in the housing market. Indeed, the Census Bureau reported that new home sales rose to 330,000 in June [...]

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Short-term Forecast for July 26, 2010

Short-term Forecast for July 26, 2010

| July 26, 2010

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Review of the Secular and Cyclical Trends in Stocks

Review of the Secular and Cyclical Trends in Stocks

| July 24, 2010

The secular bear market in stocks is now ten years old, and indices like the S&P 500 have behaved exactly as expected during the past decade. Thus far, there have been two cyclical downtrends and two cyclical uptrends. Notice how volatility has increased over the past three years as the secular bear has matured. The [...]

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Intermediate-term Forecast for July 24, 2010

Intermediate-term Forecast for July 24, 2010

| July 24, 2010

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Stocks Enter Critical Time Period

Stocks Enter Critical Time Period

| July 23, 2010

The S&P 500 index closed moderately higher today, moving up to a new high for the short-term uptrend from early July and beginning a test of strong congestion resistance in the 1,104 to 1,110 range. We are now at a critical juncture and what happens over the next five weeks should tell us a great [...]

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