Archive for September 4th, 2010

The US Housing Bubble in Perspective

The US Housing Bubble in Perspective

| September 4, 2010

We often emphasize the importance of context when analyzing financial market and economic information. A given data point only has meaning when it is considered in terms of what has come before. Different time frames afford different perspectives, but, in general, it is best to view trends over weeks, months, years and even decades in [...]

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A Closer Look at the August Employment Report

A Closer Look at the August Employment Report

| September 4, 2010

The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that nonfarm payrolls decreased 54,000 in August. Census employment declined 114,000, so without the impact of census adjustments overall payrolls increased by 60,000, exceeding consensus expectations but remaining weak. The following graph from Calculated Risk displays percent job loss trends for every recession since World War II, and the [...]

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Intermediate-term Forecast for September 4, 2010

Intermediate-term Forecast for September 4, 2010

| September 4, 2010

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