Archive for October, 2010

Residential Investment Remains Weak

Residential Investment Remains Weak

| October 30, 2010

The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported that residential investment (RI) declined to 2.2% of total GDP in their advance estimate of third quarter economic data. As shown on the following graph from Calculated Risk, RI has moved down to a new long-term low. This is the first time since the Great Depression that RI has [...]

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Intermediate-term Forecast for October 30, 2010

Intermediate-term Forecast for October 30, 2010

| October 30, 2010

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Stock Market Rally Exhibits Signs of Fatigue

Stock Market Rally Exhibits Signs of Fatigue

| October 29, 2010

The S&P 500 index closed near unchanged to end the week, continuing to hold at recent highs of the speculative rally from early September. The last seven sessions have created a series of hesitation candlesticks on the daily chart that indicate a reversal has become likely. Additionally, the increase in volume that occurred earlier this [...]

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Advance Estimate of Third Quarter GDP is 2.0%

Advance Estimate of Third Quarter GDP is 2.0%

| October 29, 2010

The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported their advance estimate of third quarter GDP, with the annualized growth rate coming in at 2.0%. The following graph from Calculated Risk displays quarterly GDP growth rates for the past 30 years. The 2.0% growth rate met consensus expectations, but a closer look at the numbers indicates underlying weakness. [...]

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Short-term Forecast for October 29, 2010

Short-term Forecast for October 29, 2010

| October 29, 2010

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Weekly Unemployment Claims Decrease But Remain at Elevated Level

Weekly Unemployment Claims Decrease But Remain at Elevated Level

| October 28, 2010

The Department of Labor reported that initial unemployment claims decreased to 434,000 last week from 455,000 during the previous week. The 4-week moving average decreased slightly to 453,250 and continues to hold at elevated levels as shown on the following graph from Calculated Risk. The 4-week moving average has remained in a relatively narrow range [...]

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Short-term Forecast for October 28, 2010

Short-term Forecast for October 28, 2010

| October 28, 2010

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Insider Selling Hits Record High

Insider Selling Hits Record High

| October 27, 2010

Alan Newman, editor of the Crosscurrents newsletter, reported that the volume of insider sell transactions relative to buy transactions is now at the highest level on record. Newman looked at insider trading activity amongst the top ten companies that make up the Nasdaq such as Apple, Google and Amazon. Then he analyzed the biggest members [...]

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Large Gap Remains Between Existing and New Home Sales

Large Gap Remains Between Existing and New Home Sales

| October 27, 2010

The Census Bureau reported that September new home sales were 307,000 units, increasing slightly from 288,000 in August. The record low was 282,000 earlier this year, so new home sales remain near historically low levels. Bill McBride of Calculated Risk has been monitoring the gap that developed between existing and new home sales following the [...]

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Short-term Forecast for October 27, 2010

Short-term Forecast for October 27, 2010

| October 27, 2010

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