Archive for November, 2010

Baltic Dry Index Holds at Recent Lows

Baltic Dry Index Holds at Recent Lows

| November 30, 2010

The Baltic Dry Index has been confined to a trading range following the strong rebound in early 2009, and it has been trending lower since early September, approaching recent long-term lows. A return to the July low would be a bearish signal with regard to international commerce, so it will be important to monitor the [...]

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Home Prices Experience Broad-based Decline in Third Quarter

Home Prices Experience Broad-based Decline in Third Quarter

| November 30, 2010

Standard and Poor’s released home price data for the third quarter, noting “broad-based declines” across the country. Data through September 2010, released today by Standard & Poor’s for its S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices show that the U.S. National Home Price Index declined 2.0% in the third quarter of 2010, after having risen 4.7% in the [...]

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Short-term Forecast for November 30, 2010

Short-term Forecast for November 30, 2010

| November 30, 2010

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European Stocks Confirm Recent Breakdown

European Stocks Confirm Recent Breakdown

| November 29, 2010

We have been monitoring the development of a rising wedge on the European Top 100 index daily chart since October. This type of pattern is a bearish technical formation that is usually followed by a violent correction, and the break below wedge support on November 23 suggested that the anticipated downtrend had begun. Today, the [...]

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Short-term Forecast for November 29, 2010

Short-term Forecast for November 29, 2010

| November 29, 2010

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A Closer Look at the Housing Supply Data

A Closer Look at the Housing Supply Data

| November 27, 2010

Last week, Bill McBride of Calculated Risk posted an excellent discussion of the latest housing supply data and we have reprinted his analysis below. We are constantly bombarded with housing supply numbers: 3.86 million existing homes for sale, 10.5 month-of-supply, 2.1 million “pending sales”, 7 million mortgages delinquent. Recently NY Fed president William Dudley said [...]

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Intermediate-term Forecast for November 27, 2010

Intermediate-term Forecast for November 27, 2010

| November 27, 2010

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Latest Estimate of Third Quarter Real Economic Growth is 1.2%

Latest Estimate of Third Quarter Real Economic Growth is 1.2%

| November 26, 2010

The Bureau of Economic Analysis recently released their second estimate of third quarter GDP with the headline number indicating 2.5% growth. Although this reading itself does not suggest an environment of strong growth, a closer look at the numbers reveals an even weaker picture. The Consumer Metrics Institute dissected the GDP report data in a [...]

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Short-term Forecast for November 26, 2010

Short-term Forecast for November 26, 2010

| November 26, 2010

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Unemployment Claims Post Sharp Drop

Unemployment Claims Post Sharp Drop

| November 24, 2010

The Department of Labor reported that weekly unemployment claims decreased to 407,000 last week from 441,000 the week before. As a result of this sharp decline, the 4-week moving average has moved down to 436,000, which is the lowest level since 2008. The moving average had been confined to a relatively tight range at elevated [...]

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