Archive for May, 2011

Federal Reserve Survey Data Signal Slowing Growth

Federal Reserve Survey Data Signal Slowing Growth

| May 31, 2011

The final regional Federal Reserve manufacturing survey data for May were released today and the cumulative view suggests that the pace of growth is decreasing as we move into the second half of the year. The following graph displays the average of all Federal Reserve survey data versus the ISM Purchasing Manager’s Index (PMI). These [...]

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Case-Shiller Home Prices Decline to new Post-bubble Low

Case-Shiller Home Prices Decline to new Post-bubble Low

| May 31, 2011

The Case-Shiller home price data for March were released today, with the 20-city composite index declining below the previous post-bubble low in April 2009. Data through March 2011 show that the U.S. National Home Price Index declined by 4.2% in the first quarter of 2011, after having fallen 3.6% in the fourth quarter of 2010. [...]

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Short-term Forecast for May 31, 2011

Short-term Forecast for May 31, 2011

| May 31, 2011

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US Dollar Oversold Reaction Faces First Test

US Dollar Oversold Reaction Faces First Test

| May 28, 2011

The US dollar index closed sharply lower this week, retreating from recent highs of the oversold reaction from early May. This is the third countertrend rally since the intermediate-term downtrend began in June 2010 and the magnitude of the decline this week suggests that the first high of the current cycle formed last week. However, [...]

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Intermediate-term Forecast for May 28, 2011

Intermediate-term Forecast for May 28, 2011

| May 28, 2011

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Chinese Stocks Confirm Intermediate-term Breakdown

Chinese Stocks Confirm Intermediate-term Breakdown

| May 27, 2011

The Shanghai composite index closed sharply lower this week, confirming the break below support at the lower boundary of the symmetrical triangle that we noted earlier this week. This breakdown on the weekly chart is a bearish intermediate-term development that suggests the cyclical downtrend from 2009 is attempting to reassert itself. A subsequent weekly close [...]

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US Dollar Retreats from Short-term Highs

US Dollar Retreats from Short-term Highs

| May 27, 2011

The US dollar index closed sharply lower today, retreating further from recent highs of the oversold reaction from early May and closing below the last beta low (BL). The alpha phase of the current short-term cycle had an extremely bullish translation as the sharp rebound from early May was followed by a brief decline into [...]

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Short-term Forecast for May 27, 2011

Short-term Forecast for May 27, 2011

| May 27, 2011

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Treasury Yields Close at New Low for the Year

Treasury Yields Close at New Low for the Year

| May 26, 2011

The 10-year Treasury note yield closed sharply lower today, breaking well below congestion support in the 3.10% area and reconfirming the downtrend from early February. With respect to cycle analysis, today’s move reconfirms the bearish translation of the current short-term cycle and forecasts additional losses as we approach the next alpha low (AL). In late [...]

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Short-term Forecast for May 26, 2011

Short-term Forecast for May 26, 2011

| May 26, 2011

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