Archive for July, 2011

A Historically Weak Economic Recovery

A Historically Weak Economic Recovery

| July 30, 2011

The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released its advanced estimate of second quarter growth, forecasting a real annualized growth rate of 1.3%, well below consensus expectations for growth of 1.9%. More significantly, major downside revisions to data for the past few years indicate that the last recession was much worse than originally reported. The following [...]

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Intermediate-term Forecast for July 30, 2011

Intermediate-term Forecast for July 30, 2011

| July 30, 2011

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Stock Market Approaches Important Short-term Low

Stock Market Approaches Important Short-term Low

| July 29, 2011

The S&P 500 index closed moderately lower today, moving further into the lower half of the distribution formation that has been developing since February. The stock market continues to track the bearish short-term cycle scenario that we outlined last week and today’s close below the beta low (BL) of the current cycle reconfirms that the [...]

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Short-term Forecast for July 29, 2011

Short-term Forecast for July 29, 2011

| July 29, 2011

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Federal Reserve Manufacturing Survey Data Indicate Slow Growth in July

Federal Reserve Manufacturing Survey Data Indicate Slow Growth in July

| July 28, 2011

The Kansas City Federal Reserve released its July manufacturing survey data today, noting the same slower pace of growth observed by most of the other regional surveys. This is the final Federal Reserve survey release before the ISM manufacturing index for July is reported. The following graph from Calculated Risk displays the ISM index along [...]

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Short-term Forecast for July 28, 2011

Short-term Forecast for July 28, 2011

| July 28, 2011

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Stocks Return to Middle of Distribution Formation

Stocks Return to Middle of Distribution Formation

| July 27, 2011

The S&P 500 index declined 2% today, returning to congestion support near the middle of the distribution formation that has been developing since February. The sharp decline today signals that the beta high (BH) likely occurred on July 22 and a subsequent close below current levels would reconfirm that the beta phase decline is in [...]

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Short-term Forecast for July 27, 2011

Short-term Forecast for July 27, 2011

| July 27, 2011

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Stock Market Forms Potential Beta High

Stock Market Forms Potential Beta High

| July 26, 2011

Stock Market Forms Potential beta high The S&P 500 index closed moderately lower again today, retreating further from recent short-term highs in the upper half of the consolidation formation that has been developing since February. Although a confirmed cycle high signal has yet to be generated, the weakness exhibited during the last two sessions indicates [...]

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Case-Shiller Home Price Indices Increase Slightly in May

Case-Shiller Home Price Indices Increase Slightly in May

| July 26, 2011

The Case-Shiller home price data for May were released today, with both composite indices showing slight increases from their April levels. Data through May 2011 showed a second consecutive month of increase in prices for the 10- and 20-City Composites. The 10- and 20-City Composites were up 1.1% and 1.0%, respectively, in May over April. [...]

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