Archive for April 7th, 2012

Stock Market Intermediate-term High Likely in Place

| April 7, 2012

The S&P 500 index ended the week near support at the lower boundary of the uptrend from October 2011. However, the March employment data was much worse than consensus expectations, causing a 15-point decline in S&P 500 futures on Friday. For several weeks, we have noted that the rally from October is extremely overbought and […]

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Confirmed Intermediate-term Signal: Gold Currency Index Technical Analysis

| April 7, 2012

The Gold Currency Index (GCI) closed moderately lower this week, breaking below support at the lower boundary of the cyclical uptrend from 2008. The breakdown constitutes a negative divergence with gold in US dollar terms and favors the development of an extended correction or period of consolidation.

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Confirmed Intermediate-term Signal: US Dollar Index Cycle Analysis

| April 7, 2012

A cycle low signal was generated this week, indicating that the half cycle low (HCL) of the current intermediate-term cycle may have already formed this week. It is also possible that the initial rally phase of the current cycle is still in progress. A move above the second half cycle high (HCH) of the previous […]

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Confirmed Intermediate-term Signal: 10-year Treasury Note Yield Cycle Analysis

| April 7, 2012

A cycle high signal was generated this week, confirming that the latest intermediate-term cycle high (ITCH) formed during the week ending March 16. Cycle translation remains in question and a shallow decline followed by a move well above the last ITCH would confirm a transition to right translation. Alternatively, an extended decline that moves below […]

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Intermediate-term Forecast for April 7, 2012

| April 7, 2012

Stock Market Intermediate-term High Likely in Place The S&P 500 index ended the week near support at the lower boundary of the uptrend from October 2011. However, the March employment data were much worse than consensus expectations, causing a 15-point decline in S&P 500 futures on Friday. For several weeks, we have noted that the […]

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