Archive for May, 2012

Economic Data Continue to Weaken

| May 31, 2012

The pattern of consensus expectation misses and deterioration in economic data continued today with the release of the Chicago Institute for Supply Management Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for May. Consensus expectations were for the index to remain near unchanged at 56.1, but it dropped substantially for a second month in a row to 52.7. The […]

Continue Reading

Short-term Forecast for May 31, 2012

| May 31, 2012

S&P 500 Index Daily Chart Analyses The following technical and cycle analyses provide short-term forecasts for the S&P 500 index. For intermediate-term outlooks see the latest intermediate-term forecast and for long-term outlooks see the latest long-term forecast. Technical Analysis The index rebounded from large early losses to close slightly lower today, holding above recent lows […]

Continue Reading

Short-term Forecast for May 30, 2012

| May 30, 2012

Stocks Attempt to Form Early Alpha High The S&P 500 index closed sharply lower today, moving down toward the recent low of the violent correction from early April. Technical indicators are moderately bearish overall on the daily chart, favoring a continuation of the downtrend. The sharp decline today nearly resulted in the generation of a […]

Continue Reading

Confirmed Short-term Signal: Oil Market Cycle Analysis

| May 30, 2012

The sharp decline today generated a cycle high signal, confirming that the beta high (BH) of the current short-term cycle occurred yesterday. The move well below the beta low (BL) during the beta phase decline reconfirms left translation and favors additional short-term weakness.

Continue Reading

Confirmed Short-term Signal: 10-year Treasury Note Yield Cycle Analysis

| May 30, 2012

The sharp decline today generated a cycle high signal, confirming that the latest short-term cycle high (STCH) occurred on May 24. An extended corrective phase during the new cycle would reconfirm left translation and favor additional short-term weakness. Alternatively, a quick rebound a move above the last STCH would suggest that cycle translation is in […]

Continue Reading

Potential Short-term Signal: Stock Market Cycle Analysis

| May 30, 2012

The sharp decline today has nearly caused the generation of a cycle high signal, indicating that the alpha high (AH) of the current short-term cycle may have formed yesterday. A close well below 1,310 today would generate a cycle high signal, indicating that the alpha phase decline is likely in progress. An extended alpha phase […]

Continue Reading

Short-term Forecast for May 29, 2012

| May 29, 2012

S&P 500 Index Daily Chart Analyses The following technical and cycle analyses provide short-term forecasts for the S&P 500 index. For intermediate-term outlooks see the latest intermediate-term forecast and for long-term outlooks see the latest long-term forecast. Technical Analysis The index closed sharply higher today, reacting further off of recent lows of the downtrend from […]

Continue Reading

Potential Short-term Signal: Gold Market Cycle Analysis

| May 29, 2012

The move lower today has caused both cycle analysis price oscillators to experience bearish crossovers and a bearish engulf pattern has formed on the daily chart. A close below 1,555 would generate a cycle high signal, indicating that the beta high (BH) of the current short-term cycle likely formed today. A move below the last […]

Continue Reading

Likelihood of Global Synchronized Recession Continues to Increase

| May 28, 2012

For the past several months, the most historically reliable leading data have indicated that the development of a recession in the US is likely during 2012. Coincident data in Europe have already signaled a return to economic contraction throughout the euro zone and the trend has turned lower in the US, suggesting that the global […]

Continue Reading

Potential Long-term Signal: US Dollar Index Cycle Analysis

| May 28, 2012

As a result of the strong advance in May, both annual cycle price oscillators have experienced bullish crossovers and a bullish engulf pattern has formed on the monthly chart. A monthly close above 80.50 would generate a cycle low signal, indicating that the latest annual cycle low (ACL) likely formed in April. Additionally, the move […]

Continue Reading