Short-term Forecast for June 13, 2019

| June 13, 2019

Stock Market Commentary

We are 8 sessions into the beta phase rally of the short-term cycle that began in May.

A quick reversal followed by a move below the last beta low (BL) at 2,728 would reconfirm the current bearish trend and forecast additional short-term weakness. Alternatively, an extended beta phase rally that moves well above the last alpha high (AH) at 2,876 would signal the likely transition to a bullish trend.

S&P 500 Index Daily Chart Analyses

The following technical and cycle analyses provide short-term forecasts for the S&P 500 index. For intermediate-term outlooks, see the latest intermediate-term forecast.

Technical Analysis

The index closed moderately higher today, returning to recent short-term highs below previous highs of the uptrend from December. Technical indicators are moderately bullish overall, favoring a return to previous highs of the advance.

Cycle Analysis

We are 8 sessions into the beta phase rally of the cycle following the short-term cycle low (STCL) on May 13. A quick reversal followed by a move below the last beta low (BL) at 2,728 would reconfirm the current bearish translation and forecast additional short-term weakness. Alternatively, an extended beta phase rally that moves well above the last alpha high (AH) at 2,876 would signal the likely transition to a bullish translation. The window during which the next STCL is likely to occur is from June 24 to July 15, with our best estimate being in the June 28 to July 5 range.

  • Last STCL: May 13, 2019
  • Cycle Duration: 22 sessions
  • Cycle Translation: Bearish
  • Next STCL Window: June 24 to July 15; best estimate in the June 28 to July 5 range.
  • Setup Status: No active setups.
  • Trigger Status: No pending triggers.
  • Signal Status: No active signals.
  • Stop Level: None active.

Short-term Outlook

  • Bullish Scenario: A close above the recent short-term high at 2,903 would predict a move up to the previous short-term high at 2,952.
  • Bearish Scenario: A reversal and close below the previous short-term low at 2,744 would reconfirm the downtrend from May and forecast additional losses.

The bullish scenario is more likely (~70% probable).

Category: Forecasts, Short-term Forecasts


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