Short-term Forecast for June 21, 2019

| June 21, 2019

Stock Market Commentary

We are 14 sessions into the alpha phase rally of the short-term cycle that began in early June. The alpha high (AH) of the current short-term cycle will likely form sometime during the next 2 sessions.

Short-term direction is in question. A quick reversal followed by a move below the last short-term cycle low (STCL) at 2,728 would reconfirm the current bearish trend and forecast additional short-term weakness. Alternatively, an extended alpha phase rally that moves well above the last beta high (BH) at 2,952 would signal the likely transition to a bullish trend.

S&P 500 Index Daily Chart Analyses

The following technical and cycle analyses provide short-term forecasts for the S&P 500 index. For intermediate-term outlooks, see the latest intermediate-term forecast.

Technical Analysis

The index closed slightly lower today, holding near previous highs of the uptrend from December. Technical indicators are bullish overall, strongly favoring a continuation of the advance.

Cycle Analysis

We are 14 sessions into the alpha phase rally of the cycle following the short-term cycle low (STCL) on June 3. The alpha high (AH) will likely form sometime during the next 2 sessions. A quick reversal followed by a move below the last STCL at 2,728 would reconfirm the current bearish translation and forecast additional short-term weakness. Alternatively, an extended alpha phase rally that moves well above the last beta high (BH) at 2,952 would signal the likely transition to a bullish translation. The window during which the next STCL is likely to occur is from July 15 to August 2, with our best estimate being in the July 25 to July 31 range.

  • Last STCL: June 3, 2019
  • Cycle Duration: 14 sessions
  • Cycle Translation: Bearish
  • Next STCL Window: July 15 to August 2; best estimate in the July 25 to July 31 range.
  • Setup Status: No active setups.
  • Trigger Status: No pending triggers.
  • Signal Status: No active signals.
  • Stop Level: None active.

Short-term Outlook

  • Bullish Scenario: A close well above current levels would reconfirm the uptrend from December and forecast additional gains.
  • Bearish Scenario: A reversal and close below the middle of the Bollinger bands at 2,856 would predict a return to the previous short-term low at 2,744.

The bullish scenario is more likely (~70% probable).

Category: Forecasts, Short-term Forecasts


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