Short-term Forecast for June 25, 2019

| June 25, 2019

Stock Market Commentary

A cycle high signal was nearly generated today, indicating that the alpha high (AH) of the short-term cycle from early June likely formed on June 21. We are 3 sessions into the alpha phase decline of the current cycle.

Short-term direction is in question. An extended alpha phase decline that moves below the last short-term cycle low (STCL) at 2,728 would reconfirm the current bearish trend and forecast additional short-term weakness. Alternatively, a quick rebound followed by an extended beta phase rally that moves well above the last AH at 2,964 would signal the likely transition to a bullish trend.

S&P 500 Index Daily Chart Analyses

The following technical and cycle analyses provide short-term forecasts for the S&P 500 index. For intermediate-term outlooks, see the latest intermediate-term forecast.

Technical Analysis

The index closed sharply lower today, retreating from previous highs of the uptrend from December. Technical indicators are moderately bullish overall, favoring a continuation of the advance.

Cycle Analysis

A cycle high signal was nearly generated today, indicating that the alpha high (AH) of the current cycle likely formed on June 21. We are 3 sessions into the alpha phase decline of the cycle following the short-term cycle low (STCL) on June 3. Cycle translation is in question. An extended alpha phase decline that moves below the last STCL at 2,728 would reconfirm the current bearish translation and favor additional short-term weakness. Alternatively, a quick rebound followed by an extended beta phase rally that moves well above the last AH at 2,964 would signal the likely transition to a bullish translation. The window during which the next STCL is likely to occur is from July 15 to August 2, with our best estimate being in the July 25 to July 31 range.

  • Last STCL: June 3, 2019
  • Cycle Duration: 16 sessions
  • Cycle Translation: Bearish
  • Next STCL Window: July 15 to August 2; best estimate in the July 25 to July 31 range.
  • Setup Status: Cycle high setup occurred today.
  • Trigger Status: Cycle high trigger is pending from today, requiring a close below current levels during the next session to generate a cycle high signal.
  • Signal Status: No active signals.
  • Stop Level: None active.

Short-term Outlook

  • Bullish Scenario: A rebound and close well above the previous short-term high at 2,954 would reconfirm the uptrend from December and forecast additional gains.
  • Bearish Scenario: A close below the middle of the Bollinger bands at 2,867 would predict a move down toward the previous short-term low at 2,744.

The bullish scenario is more likely (~70% probable).

Category: Forecasts, Short-term Forecasts


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