Short-term Forecast for July 10, 2019

| July 10, 2019

Stock Market Commentary

We are 9 sessions into the beta phase rally of the short-term cycle that began in early June.

The move well above the alpha high (AH) of the current cycle during the beta phase rally signals the likely transition to a bullish trend and favors additional short-term strength.

S&P 500 Index Daily Chart Analyses

The following technical and cycle analyses provide short-term forecasts for the S&P 500 index. For intermediate-term outlooks, see the latest intermediate-term forecast.

Technical Analysis

The index closed moderately higher today, returning to previous highs of the uptrend from December. Technical indicators are bullish overall, strongly favoring a continuation of the advance.

Cycle Analysis

We are 9 sessions into the beta phase rally of the cycle following the short-term cycle low (STCL) on June 3. The move well above the last alpha high (AH) at 2,964 during the beta phase rally signals the likely transition to a bullish translation and favors additional short-term strength. The window during which the next STCL is likely to occur is from July 15 to August 2, with our best estimate being in the July 23 to July 29 range.

  • Last STCL: June 3, 2019
  • Cycle Duration: 26 sessions
  • Cycle Translation: Bullish
  • Next STCL Window: July 15 to August 2; best estimate in the July 23 to July 29 range.
  • Setup Status: No active setups.
  • Trigger Status: No pending triggers.
  • Signal Status: No active signals.
  • Stop Level: None active.

Short-term Outlook

  • Bullish Scenario: A close well above the recent short-term high at 2,996 would reconfirm the uptrend from December and forecast additional gains.
  • Bearish Scenario: A reversal and close below the middle of the Bollinger bands at 2,941 would predict a move down toward congestion support at the 2,800 level.

The bullish scenario is more likely (~70% probable).

Category: Forecasts, Short-term Forecasts


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