RSSCategory: Commentary

The Stock Market Bubble Bursts

The Stock Market Bubble Bursts

| August 24, 2015

Since early June, we have been monitoring developing weakness in the historic stock market bubble that suggested the bull market from 2009 was becoming susceptible to a long-term reversal. In early August, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) experienced a confirmed long-term breakdown when it moved below support at its 200-day moving average. Last week, [...]

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Dow Jones Industrial Average Confirms Long-term Breakdown

Dow Jones Industrial Average Confirms Long-term Breakdown

| August 7, 2015

For two months, we have been monitoring developing weakness in the historic stock market bubble that has suggested the bull market from 2009 is becoming susceptible to a long-term reversal. In late July, we noted the formation of negative divergences between the major stock market indices and this week the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) [...]

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Stock Market Indices Exhibit Divergent Behavior

Stock Market Indices Exhibit Divergent Behavior

| July 25, 2015

For two months, we have been monitoring developing weakness in the historic stock market bubble that has suggested the bull market from 2009 is becoming susceptible to a long-term reversal. The short-term breakdown in early June was followed by a quick move down to long-term support at the 200-day moving average in late June. That [...]

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Stock Market Cyclical Bull Rebounds off of Critical Long-term Support

Stock Market Cyclical Bull Rebounds off of Critical Long-term Support

| July 13, 2015

We have been monitoring developing weakness in the historic stock market bubble that has suggested the bull market from 2009 is becoming susceptible to a long-term reversal. The short-term breakdown in early June was followed by a quick move down to long-term support at the 200-day moving average in late June, and that critical support [...]

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Stock Market Closes Below Key Long-term Support Level

Stock Market Closes Below Key Long-term Support Level

| July 8, 2015

Since early June, we have been monitoring developing weakness in the historic stock market bubble that has suggested the bull market from 2009 was becoming susceptible to a long-term reversal. The confirmed breakdown of the bearish rising wedge formation on June 8 was followed by a quick move down to the 200-day moving average, and [...]

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Stock Market on Verge of Major Breakdown

Stock Market on Verge of Major Breakdown

| June 29, 2015

In early June, we noted that the historic stock market bubble had begun to exhibit early signs of weakness, suggesting that the bull market from 2009 was becoming susceptible to a long-term reversal. Two days later, the short-term uptrend experienced a meaningful breakdown when the S&P 500 index closed well below support at the lower [...]

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Stock Market Cyclical Bull Begins Important Test

Stock Market Cyclical Bull Begins Important Test

| June 21, 2015

In early June, we noted that the historic stock market bubble had begun to exhibit early signs of weakness. At the time, our computer model predicted the imminent formation of the latest short-term cycle low (STCL) and intermediate-term cycle low (ITCL). As expected, the STCL formed on June 9 and the ITCL formed during the [...]

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Excessive Debt Continues to Constrain Economic Growth

Excessive Debt Continues to Constrain Economic Growth

| June 19, 2015

The negative economic impact of excessive debt on the US economy has been carefully researched and studied for many years. In 2009, economists Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff published their seminal analysis of the excessive debt phenomenon, This Time is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly, demonstrating clearly that, once the excessive threshold is exceeded, [...]

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Stock Market Secular Bear Remains in Control

Stock Market Secular Bear Remains in Control

| June 15, 2015

The secular bear market in stocks that began in 2000 has now been in progress for 15 years. Our Secular Trend Score (STS), which analyzes a large basket of fundamental, internal, technical and sentiment data, issued a long-term sell signal in December 1999. At the time, our computer models predicted that stocks would enter a [...]

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Stock Market Experiences Meaningful Short-term Breakdown

Stock Market Experiences Meaningful Short-term Breakdown

| June 8, 2015

The S&P 500 index closed moderately lower today, moving further below support at the lower boundary of the uptrend from 2014. Additionally, a bearish rising wedge formation had been developing since late 2014 and the close well below formation support is a meaningful technical breakdown from a short-term perspective. With respect to cycle analysis, our [...]

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