RSSCategory: Commentary

Stocks Approach Intermediate-term High as Market Internals Signal Caution

Stocks Approach Intermediate-term High as Market Internals Signal Caution

| February 11, 2017

As we observed recently, the current stock market bubble is one of the largest of the past 100 years. Further, at a current duration of nearly eight years, the cyclical uptrend from 2009 is long overdue for termination. Although the S&P 500 index has moved up to new all-time highs, the advance from 2016 is [...]

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Stock Market Bubble Now Second Largest of Past 100 Years

Stock Market Bubble Now Second Largest of Past 100 Years

| January 21, 2017

Context plays a vital role in the development of reliable market forecasts. Short-term price behavior only has meaning when analyzed in the proper context afforded by the long-term view, so all investing and trading strategies should begin with a thorough understanding of the big picture. The cyclical bull market in stocks that began in early [...]

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Stock Market Bull Faces Important Test

Stock Market Bull Faces Important Test

| January 14, 2017

On January 3, our computer models identified the likely formation of a short-term low in the stock market. The latest short-term cycle low (STCL) developed as predicted, but the initial rally phase of the new cycle has struggled to advance since the last week, suggesting that a short-term reversal has become more likely. A quick [...]

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Stock Market Continues Consolidation near Bull Market Highs

Stock Market Continues Consolidation near Bull Market Highs

| June 23, 2016

On June 17, our computer models identified the potential formation of the beta low (BL) of the current short-term cycle. A cycle low signal was then generated early this week, confirming that the second rally phase of the current cycle is in progress. The stock market has been moving sideways since early April, suggesting that [...]

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Stock Market Tests Long-term High

Stock Market Tests Long-term High

| June 6, 2016

On May 24, our computer models predicted the formation of the latest short-term cycle low (STCL). Since then, the S&P 500 index has moved higher, approaching previous long-term highs of the cyclical bull market from 2009. The stock market has been moving sideways since the previous cycle began in early April, suggesting that short-term direction [...]

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Stock Market Retreats from Bull Market Highs

Stock Market Retreats from Bull Market Highs

| April 29, 2016

Last week, our computer models predicted the likely formation of the alpha high (AH) of the current short-term cycle in the stock market. Since then, the S&P 500 index has moved lower, approaching the short-term cycle low (STCL) that formed in early April. The move down toward the previous STCL during the last 7 sessions [...]

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Stock Market Continues Rebound off of Intermediate-term Low

Stock Market Continues Rebound off of Intermediate-term Low

| March 5, 2016

In January, our computer models predicted the likely formation of an intermediate-term low in the stock market. After retesting that low in February, the S&P 500 index has advanced strongly during the last 3 weeks, confirming that the latest intermediate-term rally is in progress. Following the transition to a bearish translation in August of last [...]

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NASDAQ Breakdown Confirms Start of Bear Market

NASDAQ Breakdown Confirms Start of Bear Market

| February 6, 2016

Since June of last year, we have been monitoring the development of a massive topping formation in the stock market that signals the likely termination of the speculative cyclical bull market that began in 2009. One week ago, we observed that the developing cyclical top had entered an important phase and noted that a weekly [...]

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Stock Market Continues Test of Critical Support Level

Stock Market Continues Test of Critical Support Level

| January 30, 2016

Chart analysis is one of the most widely misunderstood forms of financial market forecasting. It has been around for centuries, and Charles Dow, the founder of The Wall Street Journal and creator of the Dow Jones Industrial Average, was the first prominent chart analyst in North America during the late 19th century. He realized that [...]

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Stock Market on Verge of Crash

Stock Market on Verge of Crash

| January 27, 2016

Last weekend, we noted that the cyclical top in the stock market had entered an important phase of its development. The massive distribution pattern that has been forming since 2014 indicates that the cyclical bull market from 2009 likely terminated in July of last year. The potential cyclical downtrend from July is testing critical support [...]

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