RSSCategory: Commentary

Potential Cyclical Top Forming in Stock Market

Potential Cyclical Top Forming in Stock Market

| December 16, 2014

Fueled by a historic amount of direct stimulus from the Federal Reserve, the cyclical bull market in stocks that began in 2009 accelerated into an unsustainable advance, creating a massive equity bubble and causing investment risk to increase to one of the three highest readings during the past 85 years. The latest cyclical top is [...]

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Stock Market Investment Risk Holds Near All-time High

Stock Market Investment Risk Holds Near All-time High

| April 28, 2014

Our Secular Trend Score (STS) and Cyclical Trend Score (CTS) are calculated using a large basket of fundamental, technical, internal and sentiment data. The historical data used by our models extend back to the market crash in 1929 and have enabled our STS to correctly identify every secular inflection point and our CTS to correctly [...]

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Stock Market Cyclical Bull Faces Important Test

Stock Market Cyclical Bull Faces Important Test

| April 13, 2014

Fueled by a historic amount of stimulus from the Federal Reserve, the cyclical bull market in stocks that began in 2009 has accelerated into an unsustainable advance, causing investment risk to increase to one of the three highest readings during the past 85 years. Following the low in 2010, the stock market rally has exhibited [...]

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Stock Market Secular Trend Review

Stock Market Secular Trend Review

| March 23, 2014

Context plays a vital role in the development of reliable market forecasts. Short-term price behavior only has meaning when analyzed in the proper context afforded by the long-term view, so all investing and trading strategies should begin with a thorough understanding of the current secular environment. There have been five secular trends in the stock [...]

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Potential Cyclical Topping Pattern

Potential Cyclical Topping Pattern

| February 17, 2014

During the past year we have been tracking the development of a log periodic bubble in the stock market, and the recent breakdown in January suggests that the bubble may have finally popped. As we often stress, a long-term top is a process, not an event, so it is too soon to conclude with a [...]

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Has the Stock Market Bubble Burst?

Has the Stock Market Bubble Burst?

| February 9, 2014

For the past four years, the stock market has exhibited the classic characteristics of a bubble as defined by a log periodic advance. Fueled by a historic amount of stimulus from the Federal Reserve, the cyclical bull market from 2009 has accelerated into an unsustainable advance and the next long-term top will almost certainly be [...]

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Annual Performance Review for 2013

Annual Performance Review for 2013

| January 25, 2014

Every January, we conduct a comprehensive review of our forecasting and signal performance during the previous year. Accountability is very important to us and this performance review is another way for us to demonstrate our commitment to providing you with a highly reliable service. The audit process itself is admittedly tedious and time-consuming, but we [...]

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Historic Sentiment Extreme Suggests Stock Market Bubble on Verge of Collapse

Historic Sentiment Extreme Suggests Stock Market Bubble on Verge of Collapse

| January 8, 2014

At a current duration of 58 months, the cyclical bull market in stocks that began in early 2009 is long overdue for termination and the character of market behavior during the last 12 months suggests that we are in the final, speculative blow-off phase of the rally. Additionally, since early last year, stock market investment [...]

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The Big Picture View of a Challenging Economic Environment

The Big Picture View of a Challenging Economic Environment

| November 27, 2013

One of our favorite fund managers is John Hussman of Hussman Funds. In his latest weekly commentary, he wrote an open letter to the Federal Open Market Committee that does an excellent job of detailing the current challenges facing our economy. We have reprinted an excerpt from his letter below, but we highly recommend that [...]

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Stock Market Risk Surges to Another Historic Extreme

Stock Market Risk Surges to Another Historic Extreme

| November 16, 2013

In early November, our cycle analysis predicted the formation of the latest short-term low in the stock market. Since the last short-term cycle low (STCL) occurred on November 7, the S&P 500 index has moved sharply higher, confirming that a new short-term cycle is in progress. An extended alpha phase rally that moves well above [...]

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