RSSCategory: Commentary

Stock Market on Verge of Major Breakdown

Stock Market on Verge of Major Breakdown

| June 29, 2015

In early June, we noted that the historic stock market bubble had begun to exhibit early signs of weakness, suggesting that the bull market from 2009 was becoming susceptible to a long-term reversal. Two days later, the short-term uptrend experienced a meaningful breakdown when the S&P 500 index closed well below support at the lower [...]

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Stock Market Cyclical Bull Begins Important Test

Stock Market Cyclical Bull Begins Important Test

| June 21, 2015

In early June, we noted that the historic stock market bubble had begun to exhibit early signs of weakness. At the time, our computer model predicted the imminent formation of the latest short-term cycle low (STCL) and intermediate-term cycle low (ITCL). As expected, the STCL formed on June 9 and the ITCL formed during the [...]

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Excessive Debt Continues to Constrain Economic Growth

Excessive Debt Continues to Constrain Economic Growth

| June 19, 2015

The negative economic impact of excessive debt on the US economy has been carefully researched and studied for many years. In 2009, economists Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff published their seminal analysis of the excessive debt phenomenon, This Time is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly, demonstrating clearly that, once the excessive threshold is exceeded, [...]

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Stock Market Secular Bear Remains in Control

Stock Market Secular Bear Remains in Control

| June 15, 2015

The secular bear market in stocks that began in 2000 has now been in progress for 15 years. Our Secular Trend Score (STS), which analyzes a large basket of fundamental, internal, technical and sentiment data, issued a long-term sell signal in December 1999. At the time, our computer models predicted that stocks would enter a [...]

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Stock Market Experiences Meaningful Short-term Breakdown

Stock Market Experiences Meaningful Short-term Breakdown

| June 8, 2015

The S&P 500 index closed moderately lower today, moving further below support at the lower boundary of the uptrend from 2014. Additionally, a bearish rising wedge formation had been developing since late 2014 and the close well below formation support is a meaningful technical breakdown from a short-term perspective. With respect to cycle analysis, our [...]

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Historic Stock Market Bubble Exhibits Signs of Weakness

Historic Stock Market Bubble Exhibits Signs of Weakness

| June 6, 2015

Context plays a vital role in the development of reliable market forecasts. Short-term price behavior only has meaning when analyzed in the proper context afforded by the long-term view, so all investing and trading strategies should begin with a thorough understanding of the current secular environment. There have been five secular trends in the stock [...]

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Oil Attempts to Form Intermediate-term Low

Oil Attempts to Form Intermediate-term Low

| December 20, 2014

Oil has experienced a true market crash, declining 47 percent following the peak in June. However, the downtrend is declining at an unsustainable rate and the market has become extremely oversold across intermediate-term and short-term time frames. As a result, the decline will almost certainly be followed by a violent oversold reaction, and the large [...]

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Potential Cyclical Trend Sell Signal is Defined

Potential Cyclical Trend Sell Signal is Defined

| December 18, 2014

On Tuesday, we noted the development of a potential cyclical trend sell signal and indicated that the latest short-term cycle low (STCL) would need to form before the sell signal could be fully defined. As expected, the latest STCL formed on December 16 as confirmed by the cycle low signal that was generated today. Due [...]

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Potential Cyclical Top Forming in Stock Market

Potential Cyclical Top Forming in Stock Market

| December 16, 2014

Fueled by a historic amount of direct stimulus from the Federal Reserve, the cyclical bull market in stocks that began in 2009 accelerated into an unsustainable advance, creating a massive equity bubble and causing investment risk to increase to one of the three highest readings during the past 85 years. The latest cyclical top is [...]

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Stock Market Investment Risk Holds Near All-time High

Stock Market Investment Risk Holds Near All-time High

| April 28, 2014

Our Secular Trend Score (STS) and Cyclical Trend Score (CTS) are calculated using a large basket of fundamental, technical, internal and sentiment data. The historical data used by our models extend back to the market crash in 1929 and have enabled our STS to correctly identify every secular inflection point and our CTS to correctly [...]

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