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Stock Market Continues Test of Critical Support Level

Stock Market Continues Test of Critical Support Level

| January 30, 2016

Chart analysis is one of the most widely misunderstood forms of financial market forecasting. It has been around for centuries, and Charles Dow, the founder of The Wall Street Journal and creator of the Dow Jones Industrial Average, was the first prominent chart analyst in North America during the late 19th century. He realized that [...]

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Dow Jones Industrial Average Confirms Long-term Breakdown

Dow Jones Industrial Average Confirms Long-term Breakdown

| August 7, 2015

For two months, we have been monitoring developing weakness in the historic stock market bubble that has suggested the bull market from 2009 is becoming susceptible to a long-term reversal. In late July, we noted the formation of negative divergences between the major stock market indices and this week the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) [...]

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Stock Market Closes Below Key Long-term Support Level

Stock Market Closes Below Key Long-term Support Level

| July 8, 2015

Since early June, we have been monitoring developing weakness in the historic stock market bubble that has suggested the bull market from 2009 was becoming susceptible to a long-term reversal. The confirmed breakdown of the bearish rising wedge formation on June 8 was followed by a quick move down to the 200-day moving average, and [...]

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Stock Market on Verge of Major Breakdown

Stock Market on Verge of Major Breakdown

| June 29, 2015

In early June, we noted that the historic stock market bubble had begun to exhibit early signs of weakness, suggesting that the bull market from 2009 was becoming susceptible to a long-term reversal. Two days later, the short-term uptrend experienced a meaningful breakdown when the S&P 500 index closed well below support at the lower [...]

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Historic Stock Market Bubble Exhibits Signs of Weakness

Historic Stock Market Bubble Exhibits Signs of Weakness

| June 6, 2015

Context plays a vital role in the development of reliable market forecasts. Short-term price behavior only has meaning when analyzed in the proper context afforded by the long-term view, so all investing and trading strategies should begin with a thorough understanding of the current secular environment. There have been five secular trends in the stock [...]

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Stock Market Cyclical Bull Faces Important Test

Stock Market Cyclical Bull Faces Important Test

| April 13, 2014

Fueled by a historic amount of stimulus from the Federal Reserve, the cyclical bull market in stocks that began in 2009 has accelerated into an unsustainable advance, causing investment risk to increase to one of the three highest readings during the past 85 years. Following the low in 2010, the stock market rally has exhibited [...]

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Has the Stock Market Bubble Burst?

Has the Stock Market Bubble Burst?

| February 9, 2014

For the past four years, the stock market has exhibited the classic characteristics of a bubble as defined by a log periodic advance. Fueled by a historic amount of stimulus from the Federal Reserve, the cyclical bull market from 2009 has accelerated into an unsustainable advance and the next long-term top will almost certainly be [...]

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Historic Sentiment Extreme Suggests Stock Market Bubble on Verge of Collapse

Historic Sentiment Extreme Suggests Stock Market Bubble on Verge of Collapse

| January 8, 2014

At a current duration of 58 months, the cyclical bull market in stocks that began in early 2009 is long overdue for termination and the character of market behavior during the last 12 months suggests that we are in the final, speculative blow-off phase of the rally. Additionally, since early last year, stock market investment [...]

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Stock Market Risk Surges to Another Historic Extreme

Stock Market Risk Surges to Another Historic Extreme

| November 16, 2013

In early November, our cycle analysis predicted the formation of the latest short-term low in the stock market. Since the last short-term cycle low (STCL) occurred on November 7, the S&P 500 index has moved sharply higher, confirming that a new short-term cycle is in progress. An extended alpha phase rally that moves well above [...]

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Gold Attempts to Form Cyclical Bottom

Gold Attempts to Form Cyclical Bottom

| October 24, 2013

In September 2011, our cycle analysis predicted the formation of a long-term top in the gold market. Following the development of a consolidation formation from late 2011 until early 2013, prices moved below congestion support in the 1,550 area. As expected, the breakdown was followed by a severe decline of 24 percent from April to [...]

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