The world of financial advice has always been a challenging one to navigate. Given that there is so much money involved in the industry, it can be difficult to trust any analysis that is offered. Is an analyst recommending a stock because he truly believes it will appreciate in price, or does he simply need buyers to support the liquidation of a large position? Perhaps the analyst has been compensated by the company he is touting in the form of stock. In that case, how objective can any subsequent analysis truly be? Large Wall Street firms also have their reasons for slanting their recommendations a certain way. It is in their best interests to remain perpetually bullish, as they maximize their revenues when the public is in a buying mood. Because bear markets tend to hit their bottom lines hard, many firms all but disbelieve them.
Given that there are so many potential conflicts of interest in the financial advice industry, how can the best sources be identified? Part of the answer is contained within the question: one should only consider sources that have been designed to eliminate potential conflicts of interest. Once you can be sure that the analysis and research provided by a given source are truly objective, you can evaluate it further based on performance. Therefore, the important characteristics of an effective service are designed integrity and demonstrated performance. At PMI, it is our mission to provide both.
When this service was created, a great deal of thought was put into eliminating conflicts of interests. The goal was to align our interests with those of our subscribers as closely as possible, leaving absolutely no potential for us to ever profit at your expense. We designed this principle into our charter by setting forth the following rules:
PMI Codes of Conduct
In order to eliminate the possibility of our profiting at your expense, our model portfolio is restricted to investment vehicles whose performances are unaffected by our recommendations such as mutual funds and ETFs. Further, because our primary source of revenue is subscription fees, we only make money if our readers profit from our analysis and advice. Thus, we have eliminated any potential conflicts of interest by linking our success directly to yours. We sink or swim, together.
We have spent many years developing our investment and trading strategies, ultimately basing our methodologies on the work of financial market legends such as Charles Dow, Benjamin Graham and Warren Buffet, to name but a few. We take a scientific approach to market analysis that relies on statistical modeling and we have developed software that applies our analysis process in a highly efficient, well-defined manner. By our measures, the system that we use for characterizing the markets and shaping our investment and trading decisions has been very successful over the years.
- Market Forecasts
We provide daily market forecasts for stocks, Treasuries, the US dollar, gold and oil. Our forecasting process, based on statistical analysis of the most likely scenarios as identified by our proprietary integration of technical and cycle analysis, has produced reliable outlooks over the past decade, and some of the highlights are listed below.
In every market forecast we identify two scenarios, one bullish and one bearish, along with the approximate probability of the more likely scenario, providing there is one. Assigned probability distributions for the two identified scenarios fall into four broad categories.
We audit our forecasting process by evaluating the result of every single outlook. At the end of each year, we undergo a performance review and provide the results to our readers. The audit procedure has demonstrated that our forecasts produce consistently reliable outlooks over the long run as shown in the following table of predicted and actual scenario probabilities.
Click here to read a sample daily market forecast.
- Market Signals
Our cycle analysis methodology identifies turning points in all of the markets that we monitor across short-term, intermediate-term and long-term time frames. Custom indicators of our own design correctly identify 95 percent of all market turning points in real-time as they develop, while issuing false signals only 7 percent of the time. The following chart displays correctly identified turning points in the stock market during the second half of 2011.
- Stock Market Investment Outlook
The proprietary software that we created to analyze long-term trends in the stock market has successfully identified every secular trend change since the crash in 1929 and more than 90% of the cyclical trend changes since 1940. In other words, we have correctly predicted nearly every meaningful change in stock market direction during the past 80 years. The following chart displays the last four secular signals issued by our system.
Our model investment portfolio was created at the start of the secular bear market in 2000 and it has outperformed the S&P 500 index by a wide margin since then.
PMI Model Investment Portfolio Performance
|Inception Date:||January 3, 2000|
|Compound Annual Return Since Inception:||9%|
|S&P 500 Compound Annual Return Since 1/3/00:||3.1%|
Our cyclical trend trading system targets stock market cyclical trends and it has also performed exceptionally well. The trading system has been evaluated using historical market data going back to 1940 and it executed 30 total trades, producing profitable trades 83% of the time. The cumulative return of the trading system if all trades had been executed in succession–applying the highest capital gains rate at the close of each profitable trade–would have been 157,183%. In terms of portfolio assets, if you had started trading using this system in June 1942 with $10,000, you would now have approximately $15,728,296.
We also maintain a library of client testimonials that provides feedback from our existing subscribers.
What We Offer
At PMI, it is our goal to enable you to do the following:
$29.95 per month with automatic renewal following a 30-day free trial period.
All first-time subscribers are provided with a 30-day free trial, enabling you to try our service risk-free during the first month. We provide a minimum of 53 updates per month (26 market commentaries, 22 short-term forecasts, four intermediate-term forecasts and one long-term forecast) with proven, reliable outlooks and actionable information. We believe that if you try our service for a month, you will find it is worth every penny.
Click here to begin your free trial subscription.