Archive for July 1st, 2010

Gold Breaks Down

| July 1, 2010

Both the Gold Currency Index (GCI) and gold in US dollar terms closed sharply lower today, breaking well below support at the lower boundaries of their respective uptrends. We had observed a slight negative divergence between the GCI and gold during recent weeks, and the lack of meaningful price progress throughout June suggested that the […]

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Weekly Unemployment Claims Remain at Elevated Levels

| July 1, 2010

The Department of Labor reported that there were 472,000 initial unemployment claims last week, well above consensus expectations once again. The four-week moving average is now at 466,500 and continues to exhibit bottoming behavior as shown on the following graph from Calculated Risk. Our analysis suggests that a return to economic contraction in the US […]

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Manufacturing PMI Weaker than Expected

| July 1, 2010

The trend of weaker than expected economic data continued today with the release of the June Manufacturing Report from the Institute for Supply Management. The manufacturing index dropped to 56.2% from 59.7% in May. Of course, one data point does not constitute a confirmed trend reversal, but it will be important to monitor the next […]

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Short-term Forecast for July 1, 2010

| July 1, 2010

Stock Chart Analysis Synopsis: The S&P 500 index closed moderately lower today, moving further below key support at the previous lows of the cyclical uptrend from early 2009 and reconfirming the downtrend from April. A weekly close at current levels or lower would confirm the start of a new cyclical downtrend. Technical Analysis: Technical indicators […]

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