Archive for August, 2010

Weekly Unemployment Claims Fall But Remain at Elevated Level

| August 26, 2010

The Department of Labor reported that initial unemployment claims decreased to 473,000 last week from 504,000 the week before. However, the 4-week moving average is now at 486,750, the highest level since November 2009. As shown on the following graph from Calculated Risk, the moving average has been confined to a relatively narrow range since […]

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Short-term Forecast for August 26, 2010

| August 26, 2010

Stock Daily Chart Analyses The following daily chart analyses provide short-term forecasts for the stock markets that we monitor. For intermediate-term outlooks see the latest weekly review, and for long-term outlooks see the big picture update. The S&P 500 Index The index closed moderately lower today, moving down to a new low for the short-term […]

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Long-term Breakout in Gold is Likely

| August 25, 2010

We have been monitoring the development of bullish consolidation formations on the daily charts of the Gold Currency Index (GCI) and gold in US dollar terms during the past several weeks, and today the GCI finally broke well above congestion resistance in the 31 area, joining gold in forming a confirmed bullish setup that suggests […]

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Regional Manufacturing Surveys Project a Decline in August PMI

| August 25, 2010

The Institute for Supply Management will release its August PMI next week and regional manufacturing data suggest it will show another moderate drop, though it will likely remain above the 50 level. Given the August data that have been released already, the PMI should come in around 52 or 53, still indicating expansion but also […]

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Mortgage Purchase Applications Remain Near Long-term Lows

| August 25, 2010

The Mortgage Bankers Association reported that their Purchase Index increased 0.6% last week, continuing to hold near recent long-term lows. Refinancing activity continues to surge as existing homeowners seek to lock in historically low interest rates. However, the lack of demand for new mortgages suggests that the demand vacuum we have observed in the wake […]

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New Home Sales Fall to Record Low

| August 25, 2010

The Census Bureau reported that new homes sales decreased to 276,000 in July from a revised 315,000 in June. As shown on the following graph from Calculated Risk, this is the lowest number on record. As we discussed yesterday, the sharp drop in July reflects the removal of government stimuli from the residential housing market […]

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Short-term Forecast for August 25, 2010

| August 25, 2010

Stock Daily Chart Analyses The following daily chart analyses provide short-term forecasts for the stock markets that we monitor. For intermediate-term outlooks see the latest weekly review, and for long-term outlooks see the big picture update. The S&P 500 Index The index closed moderately higher today, reacting off of recent lows of the short-term downtrend […]

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Stocks Continue to Search for Latest Short-term Low

| August 24, 2010

Last week, we noted that the window during which the next short-term cycle low (STCL) in stocks is likely to occur was approaching and suggested that a “sell the rumor, buy the news” rally accompanying either the existing home sales report or the GDP revision report this week could potentially provide the necessary catalyst to […]

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Existing Home Sales Plunged in July

| August 24, 2010

Last week, we noted that regional data suggested the July existing home sales report from the National Association of Realtors would very likely be much worse than expected. It was. Existing home sales decreased 27.2% to 3.82 million in July from a downwardly revised 5.26 million in June. As shown on the following graph from […]

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Short-term Forecast for August 24, 2010

| August 24, 2010

Stock Daily Chart Analyses The following daily chart analyses provide short-term forecasts for the stock markets that we monitor. For intermediate-term outlooks see the latest weekly review, and for long-term outlooks see the big picture update. The S&P 500 Index The index closed sharply lower today, moving down to a new low for the short-term […]

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