Archive for 2011

Intermediate-term Forecast for December 31, 2011

| December 31, 2011

S&P 500 Index Weekly Chart Analyses The following technical and cycle analyses provide intermediate-term forecasts for the S&P 500 index. For short-term outlooks see the latest short-term forecast and for long-term outlooks see the latest long-term forecast. Technical Analysis The index closed slightly lower this week, holding below previous highs of the reaction from August […]

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Treasuries Continue to Negatively Diverge from Stocks

| December 30, 2011

The S&P 500 index closed moderately lower today, continuing a test of strong congestion resistance in the 1,260 area. Stocks have failed to move meaningfully higher following the breakout from the symmetrical triangle formation last week and the rally from early October continues to struggle at the congestion zone that served as support for the […]

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Short-term Forecast for December 30, 2011

| December 30, 2011

Treasuries Continue to Negatively Diverge from Stocks The S&P 500 index closed moderately lower today, continuing a test of strong congestion resistance in the 1,260 area. Stocks have failed to move meaningfully higher following the breakout from the symmetrical triangle formation last week and the rally from early October continues to struggle at the congestion […]

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Potential Short-term Signal: US Dollar Index Cycle Analysis

| December 30, 2011

Both price oscillators experienced bearish crossovers today, creating a cycle high setup. A subsequent close below current levels would generate a confirmed cycle high signal that indicates the beta high (BH) likely formed yesterday. A strong move above the alpha high (AH) during the beta phase rally would reconfirm right translation and favor additional short-term […]

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Confirmed Short-term Signal: Gold Market Cycle Analysis

| December 30, 2011

The rebound today generated a cycle low signal, confirming that the beta low (BL) formed yesterday. A brief beta phase rally followed by a move below the BL would reconfirm left translation and favor additional short-term weakness. Alternatively, a strong advance that approaches the alpha high (AH) would suggest that cycle translation is in question.

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Short-term Forecast for December 29, 2011

| December 29, 2011

S&P 500 Index Daily Chart Analyses The following technical and cycle analyses provide short-term forecasts for the S&P 500 index. For intermediate-term outlooks see the latest intermediate-term forecast and for long-term outlooks see the latest long-term forecast. Technical Analysis The index closed sharply higher today, returning to recent short-term highs at strong congestion resistance in […]

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Confirmed Short-term Signal: 10-year Treasury Note Yield Cycle Analysis

| December 29, 2011

A cycle high signal was generated today, reconfirming that the latest short-term cycle high (STCH) formed on December 23. A move below the previous alpha low (AL) during the corrective phase of the current cycle would reconfirm left translation and favor additional short-term weakness. Alternatively, a shallow decline followed by a move above the last […]

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Stocks Retreat from Strong Resistance Level

| December 28, 2011

The S&P 500 index closed sharply lower today, retreating from strong congestion resistance in the 1,260 area. Technical indicators are slightly bullish overall on the daily chart, tentatively supporting a continuation of the advance. However, this is the third time the uptrend from early October has attempted to break above this key resistance level and […]

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Short-term Forecast for December 28, 2011

| December 28, 2011

Stocks Retreat from Strong Resistance Level The S&P 500 index closed sharply lower today, retreating from strong congestion resistance in the 1,260 area. Technical indicators are slightly bullish overall on the daily chart, tentatively supporting a continuation of the advance. However, this is the third time the uptrend from early October has attempted to break […]

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Confirmed Short-term Signal: US Dollar Index Cycle Analysis

| December 28, 2011

The sharp advance generated a cycle low signal today, indicating that the beta low (BL) likely formed yesterday. A strong move above the alpha high (AH) during the beta phase rally would reconfirm right translation and favor additional short-term strength. Alternatively, a failure to move well above the AH followed by a move below the […]

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