Unemployment Claims Turn Higher in April

| April 19, 2012

The Department of Labor reported that there were 386,000 initial unemployment claims last week, well above consensus expectations for a second straight week.

In the week ending April 14, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 386,000, a decrease of 2,000 from the previous week’s revised figure of 388,000. The 4-week moving average was 374,750, an increase of 5,500 from the previous week’s revised average of 369,250.

The following graph displays the long-term trend in unemployment claims, along with the four-week moving average.

Although it is too early to conclude that the rebound off of recent lows in April is the start of a new uptrend, we have been expecting this turn higher, along with the slight deterioration that has occurred in other economic data during the last several weeks. If a cyclical top is indeed developing in the stock market, we would expect the recent deterioration in economic data to accelerate during May and June.

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Category: Commentary, Market Update


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