Short-term Forecast for September 5, 2013

| September 5, 2013

S&P 500 Index Daily Chart Analyses

The following technical and cycle analyses provide short-term forecasts for the S&P 500 index. For intermediate-term outlooks see the latest intermediate-term forecast and for long-term outlooks see the latest long-term forecast.

Technical Analysis

The index closed slightly higher today, reacting further off of recent short-term lows above the lower boundary of the uptrend from late 2012. Technical indicators are neutral to slightly bearish overall, suggesting that direction is in question with a slight downward bias.

Cycle Analysis

We are 6 sessions into the alpha phase rally of the cycle following the short-term cycle low (STCL) on August 27. An extended alpha phase rally of more than 10 sessions in duration that moves well above the last beta high (BH) near 1,710 would reconfirm the current bullish translation and favor additional short-term strength. Alternatively, a quick reversal followed by an extended alpha phase decline of more than 8 sessions in duration that moves well below the last STCL near 1,630 would signal the likely transition to a bearish translation. The window during which the next STCL is likely to occur is from October 8 to October 28, with our best estimate being in the October 18 to October 24 range.

  • Last STCL: August 27, 2013
  • Cycle Duration: 6 sessions
  • Cycle Translation: Bullish
  • Next STCL Window: October 8 to October 28; best estimate in the October 18 to October 24 range.
  • Setup Status: No active setups.
  • Trigger Status: No pending triggers.
  • Signal Status: No active signals.
  • Stop Level: None active.

Short-term Outlook

  • Bullish Scenario: A close well above the 50-day moving average near 1,664 would forecast a move up toward the previous long-term high of the cyclical bull market near 1,710.
  • Bearish Scenario: A reversal and close below the recent short-term low near 1,630 would predict a move down to uptrend support near 1,611.

The bullish scenario is slightly more likely (~60% probable).

US 10-year Treasury Note Yield Daily Chart Analyses

The following technical and cycle analyses provide short-term forecasts for the 10-year Treasury note yield. For intermediate-term outlooks see the latest intermediate-term forecast and for long-term outlooks see the latest long-term forecast.

Technical Analysis

Yields closed sharply higher today, moving up to a new high for the uptrend from May. Technical indicators are bullish overall, strongly favoring a continuation of the advance.

Cycle Analysis

We are 3 sessions into the rally phase of the cycle following the short-term cycle high (STCH) on August 22. An extended rally phase of more than 9 sessions in duration that moves well above the last STCH near 2.92% would reconfirm the current bullish translation and favor additional short-term strength. Alternatively, a brief, weak rally phase of less than 8 sessions in duration followed by an extended decline phase that moves well below the last alpha low (AL) near 2.75% would signal the likely transition to a bearish translation. The window during which the next STCH is likely to occur is from September 13 to October 4, with our best estimate being in the September 17 to September 23 range.

  • Last STCH: August 22, 2013
  • Cycle Duration: 9 sessions
  • Cycle Translation: Bullish
  • Next STCH Window: September 13 to October 4; best estimate in the September 17 to September 23 range.
  • Setup Status: No active setups.
  • Trigger Status: No pending triggers.
  • Signal Status: No active signals.
  • Stop Level: None active.

Short-term Outlook

  • Bullish Scenario: A close above current levels would reconfirm the uptrend from May and forecast additional gains.
  • Bearish Scenario: A reversal and close well below congestion support in the 2.73% area would confirm a break below uptrend support and predict a return to congestion support at the 2.48% level.

The bullish scenario is highly likely (>80% probable).

US Dollar Index Daily Chart Analyses

The following technical and cycle analyses provide short-term forecasts for the US dollar index. For intermediate-term outlooks see the latest intermediate-term forecast and for long-term outlooks see the latest long-term forecast.

Technical Analysis

The index closed sharply higher today, reacting further off of support at the lower boundary of the uptrend from February. Technical indicators are moderately bullish overall, favoring a continuation of the rebound from late August.

Cycle Analysis

We are 11 sessions into the alpha phase rally of the cycle following the short-term cycle low (STCL) on August 20. The alpha high (AH) is imminent and it could form at any time. The magnitude and duration of the alpha phase rally suggests that cycle translation is in question. A quick reversal followed by an extended alpha phase decline of more than 6 sessions in duration that moves below the last STCL at 80.77 would reconfirm the current bearish translation and favor additional short-term weakness. Alternatively, an extended alpha phase rally that moves well above the previous AH at 82.61 would signal the likely transition to a bullish translation. The window during which the next STCL is likely to occur is from September 16 to September 30, with our best estimate being in the September 19 to September 25 range.

  • Last STCL: August 20, 2013
  • Cycle Duration: 11 sessions
  • Cycle Translation: Bearish
  • Next STCL Window: September 16 to September 30; best estimate in the September 19 to September 25 range.
  • Setup Status: No active setups.
  • Trigger Status: No pending triggers.
  • Signal Status: No active signals.
  • Stop Level: None active.

Short-term Outlook

  • Bullish Scenario: A close above current levels would predict a return to congestion resistance in the 83 area.
  • Bearish Scenario: A reversal and close below the recent short-term low at 80.94 would reconfirm the downtrend from July and forecast a move down to congestion support at the 80 level.

The bullish scenario is more likely (~70% probable).

Gold Daily Chart Analyses

The following technical and cycle analyses provide short-term forecasts for the gold market. For intermediate-term outlooks see the latest intermediate-term forecast and for long-term outlooks see the latest long-term forecast.

Technical Analysis

Gold closed moderately lower today, retreating further from recent highs and moving down toward support at the lower boundary of the uptrend from June. Technical indicators are neutral to slightly bullish overall, suggesting that direction is in question with a slight upward bias.

Cycle Analysis

We are 2 sessions into the beta phase decline of the cycle following the short-term cycle low (STCL) on August 22. A quick rebound followed by an extended alpha phase rally of more than 5 sessions in duration that moves well above the last alpha high (AH) near 1,434 would reconfirm the current bullish translation and favor additional short-term strength. Alternatively, an extended beta phase decline of more than 4 sessions in duration that returns to the last STCL near 1,355 would suggest that cycle translation is in question. The window during which the next STCL is likely to occur is from September 6 to September 20, with our best estimate being in the September 6 to September 12 range.

  • Last STCL: August 22, 2013
  • Cycle Duration: 9 sessions
  • Cycle Translation: Bullish
  • Next STCL Window: September 6 to September 20; best estimate in the September 6 to September 12 range.
  • Setup Status: No active setups.
  • Trigger Status: No pending triggers.
  • Signal Status: No active signals.
  • Stop Level: None active.

Short-term Outlook

  • Bullish Scenario: A rebound and close well above the recent short-term high near 1,418 would reconfirm the uptrend from June and forecast a move up to congestion resistance in the 1,475 area.
  • Bearish Scenario: A close below uptrend support near 1,345 would predict a move down toward congestion support in the 1,275 area.

The bullish scenario is slightly more likely (~60% probable).

Gold Currency Index Daily Chart Analysis

The Gold Currency Index (GCI) is a composite of gold prices in the currencies of 10 of the largest economies in the world as defined by GDP. It is therefore currency independent, reflecting the intrinsic value of gold as an international currency itself.

Technical Analysis

The GCI closed slightly lower today, retreating further from recent highs of the uptrend from June. Technical indicators are neutral to slightly bullish overall, suggesting that direction is in question with a slight upward bias.

Short-term Outlook

  • Bullish Scenario: A rebound and close well above congestion resistance in the 37.50 area would reconfirm the uptrend from June and forecast additional gains.
  • Bearish Scenario: A close below uptrend support near 34.75 would predict a move down toward the previous low of the downtrend from October at 31.15.

The bullish scenario is slightly more likely (~60% probable).

Oil Daily Chart Analyses

The following technical and cycle analyses provide short-term forecasts for the oil market. For intermediate-term outlooks see the latest intermediate-term forecast and for long-term outlooks see the latest long-term forecast.

Technical Analysis

Oil closed moderately higher today, moving up toward recent highs of the uptrend from April above the congestion zone at the 108 level. Technical indicators are slightly bullish overall, tentatively favoring a continuation of the advance.

Cycle Analysis

We are 3 sessions into the beta phase rally of the cycle following the short-term cycle low (STCL) on August 21. Cycle translation remains in question. An extended beta phase rally of more than 4 sessions in duration that moves well above the last alpha high (AH) at 112.24 would reconfirm the current bullish translation and favor additional short-term strength. Alternatively, a brief, weak beta phase rally of less than 4 sessions in duration followed by an extended beta phase decline that returns to the last STCL at 103.50 would suggest that cycle translation is in question. The window during which the next STCL is likely to occur is from September 10 to September 24, with our best estimate being in the September 11 to September 17 range.

  • Last STCL: August 21, 2013
  • Cycle Duration: 10 sessions
  • Cycle Translation: Bullish
  • Next STCL Window: September 10 to September 24; best estimate in the September 11 to September 17 range.
  • Setup Status: No active setups.
  • Trigger Status: No pending triggers.
  • Signal Status: No active signals.
  • Stop Level: None active.

Short-term Outlook

  • Bullish Scenario: A close above the recent short-term high at 109.53 would reconfirm the uptrend from April and forecast additional gains.
  • Bearish Scenario: A close below the recent short-term low at 103.15 would predict a move down to uptrend support near 102.70.

The bullish scenario is slightly more likely (~60% probable).

Category: Forecasts, Short-term Forecasts


Comments are closed.