Potential Short-term Signal: 10-year Treasury Note Yield Cycle Analysis

| September 12, 2013

The decline today has caused both short-term cycle oscillators to experience bearish crossovers and a bearish engulf pattern has formed on the daily chart. A close below 2.88% today would generate a cycle high signal and indicate that the latest short-term cycle high (STCH) likely formed on September 10.

A brief, shallow decline phase of less than 8 sessions in duration followed by an extended rally phase that moves well above the developing STCH near 2.96% would reconfirm the current bullish translation and favor additional short-term strength. Alternatively, an extended decline phase of more than 11 sessions in duration that moves well below the previous short-term low near 2.70% would signal the likely transition to a bearish translation.

Category: Signals, Treasuries

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