Potential Short-term Signal: 10-year Treasury Note Yield Cycle Analysis

| October 17, 2013

The decline today has caused both short-term cycle oscillators to experience bearish crossovers and a bearish engulf pattern has formed on the daily chart. In the absence of a strong rebound into the close today that returns to 2.67%, a cycle high signal will be generated, confirming that the latest short-term cycle high (STCH) formed on October 16.

An extended decline phase that moves well below the last alpha low (AL) near 2.61% would reconfirm the current bearish translation and favor additional short-term weakness. Alternatively, a brief, shallow decline phase of less than 7 sessions in duration followed by an extended rally phase that moves well above the last STCH near 2.74% would signal the likely transition to a bullish translation.

Category: Signals, Treasuries


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