Short-term Forecast for March 1, 2016

| March 1, 2016

S&P 500 Index Daily Chart Analyses

The following technical and cycle analyses provide short-term forecasts for the S&P 500 index. For intermediate-term outlooks see the latest intermediate-term forecast and for long-term outlooks see the latest long-term forecast.

Technical Analysis

The index closed sharply higher today, moving up to a new high for the uptrend from February. Technical indicators are slightly bullish overall, tentatively favoring a continuation of the advance.

Cycle Analysis

We are 12 sessions into the beta phase rally of the cycle following the short-term cycle low (STCL) on January 20. The beta high (BH) is imminent and it could form at any time. Cycle translation is in question. A quick reversal followed by an extended beta phase decline that moves below the last beta low (BL) at 1,810 would reconfirm the current bearish translation and favor additional short-term weakness. Alternatively, an extended beta phase rally that moves well above the last alpha high (AH) at 1,947 would signal the likely transition to a bullish translation. The window during which the next STCL is likely to occur is from March 2 to March 22, with our best estimate being in the March 10 to March 16 range.

  • Last STCL: January 20, 2016
  • Cycle Duration: 28 sessions
  • Cycle Translation: Bearish
  • Next STCL Window: March 2 to March 22; best estimate in the March 10 to March 16 range.
  • Setup Status: No active setups.
  • Trigger Status: No pending triggers.
  • Signal Status: No active signals.
  • Stop Level: None active.

Short-term Outlook

  • Bullish Scenario: A close above current levels would predict a move up to congestion resistance in the 2,000 area.
  • Bearish Scenario: A reversal and close below the previous short-term low at 1,829 would reconfirm the downtrend from November and forecast additional losses.

The bullish scenario is slightly more likely (~60% probable).

US 10-year Treasury Note Yield Daily Chart Analyses

The following technical and cycle analyses provide short-term forecasts for the 10-year Treasury note yield. For intermediate-term outlooks see the latest intermediate-term forecast and for long-term outlooks see the latest long-term forecast.

Technical Analysis

Yields closed sharply higher today, moving above resistance at the upper boundary of the downtrend from November. Technical indicators are neutral to slightly bullish overall, suggesting that direction is in question with a slight upward bias.

Cycle Analysis

We are 5 sessions into the rally phase of the cycle following the short-term cycle high (STCH) on February 17. Cycle translation is in question. A quick reversal followed by an extended decline phase that moves below the alpha low (AL) in mid-February at 1.57% would reconfirm the current bearish translation and favor additional short-term weakness. Alternatively, an extended rally phase that moves well above the last STCH at 1.85% would signal the likely transition to a bullish translation. The window during which the next STCH is likely to occur is from March 9 to March 30, with our best estimate being in the March 10 to March 16 range.

  • Last STCH: February 17, 2016
  • Cycle Duration: 9 sessions
  • Cycle Translation: Bearish
  • Next STCH Window: March 9 to March 30; best estimate in the March 10 to March 16 range.
  • Setup Status: No active setups.
  • Trigger Status: No pending triggers.
  • Signal Status: No active signals.
  • Stop Level: None active.

Short-term Outlook

  • Bullish Scenario: A close above current levels would predict a move up to the top of the Bollinger bands at 1.89%.
  • Bearish Scenario: A reversal and close below the previous short-term low at 1.57% would reconfirm the downtrend from November and forecast additional losses.

The bullish scenario is slightly more likely (~60% probable).

US Dollar Index Daily Chart Analyses

The following technical and cycle analyses provide short-term forecasts for the US dollar index. For intermediate-term outlooks see the latest intermediate-term forecast and for long-term outlooks see the latest long-term forecast.

Technical Analysis

The index closed slightly higher today, moving up to a new short-term high above previous lows of the downtrend from December. Technical indicators are neutral to slightly bullish overall, suggesting that direction is in question with a slight upward bias.

Cycle Analysis

We are 12 sessions into the alpha phase rally of the cycle following the short-term cycle low (STCL) on February 11. The alpha high (AH) is imminent and it could form at any time. The magnitude and duration of the last beta phase decline signals the likely transition to a bearish translation and favors additional short-term weakness. The window during which the next STCL is likely to occur is from March 9 to March 23, with our best estimate being in the March 14 to March 18 range.

  • Last STCL: February 11, 2016
  • Cycle Duration: 12 sessions
  • Cycle Translation: Bearish
  • Next STCL Window: March 9 to March 23; best estimate in the March 14 to March 18 range.
  • Setup Status: No active setups.
  • Trigger Status: No pending triggers.
  • Signal Status: No active signals.
  • Stop Level: None active.

Short-term Outlook

  • Bullish Scenario: A close well above the top of the Bollinger bands at 98.78 would predict a move up toward the previous short-term high at 100.25.
  • Bearish Scenario: A reversal and close below the previous short-term low at 95.62 would reconfirm the downtrend from December and forecast additional losses.

Both scenarios are equally likely.

Gold Daily Chart Analyses

The following technical and cycle analyses provide short-term forecasts for the gold market. For intermediate-term outlooks see the latest intermediate-term forecast and for long-term outlooks see the latest long-term forecast.

Technical Analysis

Gold closed moderately lower today, retreating from previous highs of the uptrend from December. Technical indicators are moderately bullish overall, favoring a continuation of the advance.

Cycle Analysis

The character of price behavior during the last 2 sessions has caused a change to our preferred scenario and it is now likely that the beta phase rally of the current cycle is in progress. We are 6 sessions into the beta phase rally of the cycle following the short-term cycle low (STCL) on February 16. The magnitude and duration of the previous beta phase rally reconfirms the current bullish translation and favors additional short-term strength. The window during which the next STCL is likely to occur is from March 2 to March 15, with our best estimate being in the March 2 to March 8 range.

  • Last STCL: February 16, 2016
  • Cycle Duration: 10 sessions
  • Cycle Translation: Bullish
  • Next STCL Window: March 2 to March 15; best estimate in the March 2 to March 8 range.
  • Setup Status: No active setups.
  • Trigger Status: No pending triggers.
  • Signal Status: No active signals.
  • Stop Level: None active.

Short-term Outlook

  • Bullish Scenario: A close above the previous short-term high at 1,247 would reconfirm the uptrend from December and forecast additional gains.
  • Bearish Scenario: A close well below congestion support in the 1,185 area would predict a return to congestion support at the 1,150 level.

The bullish scenario is more likely (~70% probable).

Oil Daily Chart Analyses

The following technical and cycle analyses provide short-term forecasts for the oil market. For intermediate-term outlooks see the latest intermediate-term forecast and for long-term outlooks see the latest long-term forecast.

Technical Analysis

Oil closed near unchanged today, holding near recent short-term highs above previous lows of the long-term downtrend. Technical indicators are slightly bullish overall, tentatively favoring a continuation of the rebound from mid-February.

Cycle Analysis

We are 12 sessions into the alpha phase rally of the cycle following the short-term cycle low (STCL) on February 11. The alpha high (AH) is imminent and it could form at any time. Cycle translation is in question. A quick reversal followed by an extended alpha phase decline that moves below the last STCL at 26.05 would reconfirm the current bearish translation and favor additional short-term weakness. Alternatively, an extended alpha phase rally that moves well above the previous AH at 33.74 would signal the likely transition to a bullish translation. The window during which the next STCL is likely to occur is from March 2 to March 16, with our best estimate being in the March 10 to March 16 range.

  • Last STCL: February 11, 2016
  • Cycle Duration: 12 sessions
  • Cycle Translation: Bearish
  • Next STCL Window: March 2 to March 16; best estimate in the March 10 to March 16 range.
  • Setup Status: No active setups.
  • Trigger Status: No pending triggers.
  • Signal Status: No active signals.
  • Stop Level: None active.

Short-term Outlook

  • Bullish Scenario: A close well above congestion resistance in the 34 area would predict a move up toward congestion resistance at the 38 level.
  • Bearish Scenario: A reversal and close below the previous short-term low at 27.30 would reconfirm the long-term downtrend and forecast additional losses.

Both scenarios are equally likely.

Category: Forecasts, Short-term Forecasts


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