Short-term Forecast for April 1, 2016

| April 1, 2016

S&P 500 Index Daily Chart Analyses

The following technical and cycle analyses provide short-term forecasts for the S&P 500 index. For intermediate-term outlooks see the latest intermediate-term forecast and for long-term outlooks see the latest long-term forecast.

Technical Analysis

The index closed moderately higher today, moving up to a new high for the uptrend from February. Technical indicators are moderately bullish overall, favoring a continuation of the advance. However, the uptrend has moved higher at an unsustainable rate and it will likely be followed by a violent overbought correction.

Cycle Analysis

We are 17 sessions into the beta phase rally of the cycle following the short-term cycle low (STCL) on February 11. The beta high (BH) is overdue and it could form at any time. The magnitude and duration of the current beta phase rally signals the likely transition to a bullish translation and favors additional short-term strength. The window during which the next STCL is likely to occur is now through April 14, with our best estimate being in the April 7 to April 13 range.

  • Last STCL: February 11, 2016
  • Cycle Duration: 33 sessions
  • Cycle Translation: Bullish
  • Next STCL Window: Now through April 14; best estimate in the April 7 to April 13 range.
  • Setup Status: No active setups.
  • Trigger Status: No pending triggers.
  • Signal Status: No active signals.
  • Stop Level: None active.

Short-term Outlook

  • Bullish Scenario: A close above current levels would reconfirm the uptrend from February and forecast a return to congestion resistance at the 2,100 level.
  • Bearish Scenario: A reversal and close well below uptrend support near 2,048 would predict a return to congestion support in the 2,000 area.

The bullish scenario is more likely (~70% probable).

US 10-year Treasury Note Yield Daily Chart Analyses

The following technical and cycle analyses provide short-term forecasts for the 10-year Treasury note yield. For intermediate-term outlooks see the latest intermediate-term forecast and for long-term outlooks see the latest long-term forecast.

Technical Analysis

Yields closed slightly higher today, holding near recent short-term lows below support at the lower boundary of the uptrend from February. Technical indicators are moderately bearish overall, favoring a return to previous lows of the downtrend from December.

Cycle Analysis

We are 14 sessions into the decline phase of the cycle following the short-term cycle high (STCH) on March 11. The alpha low (AL) will likely form sometime during the next 2 sessions. A quick rebound followed by an extended rally phase that moves above the last STCH at 1.98% would reconfirm the current bullish translation and favor additional short-term strength. Alternatively, an extended decline phase that approaches the previous AL at 1.65% would suggest that cycle translation is in question. The window during which the next STCH is likely to occur is from April 5 to April 25, with our best estimate being in the April 8 to April 14 range.

  • Last STCH: March 11, 2016
  • Cycle Duration: 14 sessions
  • Cycle Translation: Bullish
  • Next STCH Window: April 5 to April 25; best estimate in the April 8 to April 14 range.
  • Setup Status: No active setups.
  • Trigger Status: No pending triggers.
  • Signal Status: No active signals.
  • Stop Level: None active.

Short-term Outlook

  • Bullish Scenario: A rebound and close above congestion resistance in the 1.98% area would reconfirm the uptrend from February and forecast additional gains.
  • Bearish Scenario: A close below the recent short-term low at 1.78% would predict a move down to congestion support at the 1.70% level.

The bearish scenario is slightly more likely (~60% probable).

US Dollar Index Daily Chart Analyses

The following technical and cycle analyses provide short-term forecasts for the US dollar index. For intermediate-term outlooks see the latest intermediate-term forecast and for long-term outlooks see the latest long-term forecast.

Technical Analysis

The index closed near unchanged today, holding near recent lows of the downtrend from December. Technical indicators are bearish overall, strongly favoring a continuation of the decline.

Cycle Analysis

We are 5 sessions into the alpha phase decline of the cycle following the short-term cycle low (STCL) on March 18. The magnitude of the last beta phase decline reconfirms the current bearish translation and favors additional short-term weakness. The window during which the next STCL is likely to occur is from April 13 to April 27, with our best estimate being in the April 18 to April 22 range.

  • Last STCL: March 18, 2016
  • Cycle Duration: 10 sessions
  • Cycle Translation: Bearish
  • Next STCL Window: April 13 to April 27; best estimate in the April 18 to April 22 range.
  • Setup Status: No active setups.
  • Trigger Status: No pending triggers.
  • Signal Status: No active signals.
  • Stop Level: None active.

Short-term Outlook

  • Bullish Scenario: A rebound and close well above the middle of the Bollinger bands at 95.93 would predict a move up to downtrend resistance near 96.90.
  • Bearish Scenario: A close well below current levels would reconfirm the downtrend from December and forecast additional losses.

The bearish scenario is more likely (~70% probable).

Gold Daily Chart Analyses

The following technical and cycle analyses provide short-term forecasts for the gold market. For intermediate-term outlooks see the latest intermediate-term forecast and for long-term outlooks see the latest long-term forecast.

Technical Analysis

Gold closed moderately lower today, moving down toward recent short-term lows below previous highs of the uptrend from December. Technical indicators are neutral to slightly bearish overall, suggesting that direction is in question with a slight downward bias.

A cycle high signal was nearly generated today, indicating that the beta high (BH) of the current cycle likely formed on March 29. We are 3 sessions into the beta phase decline of the cycle following the short-term cycle low (STCL) on March 15. An extended beta phase decline that moves below the last beta low (BL) at 1,206 would reconfirm the current bearish translation and favor additional short-term weakness. Alternatively, a quick rebound followed by an extended alpha phase rally that moves well above the last alpha high (AH) at 1,272 would signal the likely transition to a bullish translation. The window during which the next STCL is likely to occur is now through April 13, with our best estimate being now through April 7.

  • Last STCL: March 15, 2016
  • Cycle Duration: 12 sessions
  • Cycle Translation: Bearish
  • Next STCL Window: Now through April 13; best estimate now through April 7.
  • Setup Status: No active setups.
  • Trigger Status: No pending triggers.
  • Signal Status: No active signals.
  • Stop Level: None active.

Short-term Outlook

  • Bullish Scenario: A rebound and close above the previous short-term high at 1,273 would reconfirm the uptrend from December and forecast additional gains.
  • Bearish Scenario: A close below the recent short-term low at 1,216 would predict a move down toward congestion support in the 1,185 area.

Both scenarios are equally likely.

Oil Daily Chart Analyses

The following technical and cycle analyses provide short-term forecasts for the oil market. For intermediate-term outlooks see the latest intermediate-term forecast and for long-term outlooks see the latest long-term forecast.

Technical Analysis

Oil closed sharply lower today, moving down to a new short-term low below congestion support in the 38. Technical indicators are slightly bearish overall, tentatively favoring a continuation of the decline from March.

Cycle Analysis

We are 10 sessions into the alpha phase decline of the cycle following the short-term cycle low (STCL) on March 14. The beta low (BL) is overdue and it could form at any time. The magnitude and duration of the current beta phase decline suggests that cycle translation is in question. A quick rebound followed by an extended beta phase rally that moves above the last alpha high (AH) at 42.49 would reconfirm the current bullish translation and favor additional short-term strength. Alternatively, an extended alpha phase decline that moves well below the last STCL at 36.68 would signal the likely transition to a bearish translation. The window during which the next STCL is likely to occur is from April 4 to April 18, with our best estimate being in the April 12 to April 18 range.

  • Last STCL: March 14, 2016
  • Cycle Duration: 13 sessions
  • Cycle Translation: Bullish
  • Next STCL Window: April 4 to April 18; best estimate in the April 12 to April 18 range.
  • Setup Status: No active setups.
  • Trigger Status: No pending triggers.
  • Signal Status: No active signals.
  • Stop Level: None active.

Short-term Outlook

  • Bullish Scenario: A rebound and close above the previous short-term high at 41.67 would reconfirm the uptrend from February and forecast additional gains.
  • Bearish Scenario: A close below current levels would predict a move down to the bottom of the Bollinger bands at 35.64.

The bearish scenario is slightly more likely (~60% probable).

Category: Forecasts, Short-term Forecasts


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