Short-term Forecast for September 30, 2016

| September 30, 2016

S&P 500 Index Daily Chart Analyses

The following technical and cycle analyses provide short-term forecasts for the S&P 500 index. For intermediate-term outlooks see the latest intermediate-term forecast and for long-term outlooks see the latest long-term forecast.

Technical Analysis

The index closed moderately higher today, moving up toward recent short-term highs below previous highs of the uptrend from February. Technical indicators are effectively neutral overall, suggesting that direction is in question.

Cycle Analysis

We are 12 sessions into the beta phase rally of the cycle following the short-term cycle low (STCL) on September 1. The beta high (BH) may have formed on September 22, although we would need to see additional weakness to confirm that development. Cycle translation is in question. An extended beta phase decline that moves below the last beta low (BL) at 2,120 would reconfirm the current bearish translation and favor additional short-term weakness. Alternatively, an extended beta phase rally that moves well above the last beta high (BH) at 2,193 would signal the likely transition to a bullish translation. The window during which the next STCL is likely to occur is from October 13 to November 1, with our best estimate being in the October 13 to October 19 range.

  • Last STCL: September 1, 2016
  • Cycle Duration: 20 sessions
  • Cycle Translation: Bearish
  • Next STCL Window: October 13 to November 1; best estimate in the October 13 to October 19 range.
  • Setup Status: No active setups.
  • Trigger Status: No pending triggers.
  • Signal Status: No active signals.
  • Stop Level: None active.

Short-term Outlook

  • Bullish Scenario: A rebound and close well above the previous short-term high at 2,190 would reconfirm the uptrend from February and forecast additional gains.
  • Bearish Scenario: A close below the previous short-term low at 2,121 would predict a return to congestion support at the 2,100 level.

Both scenarios are equally likely.

US 10-year Treasury Note Yield Daily Chart Analyses

The following technical and cycle analyses provide short-term forecasts for the 10-year Treasury note yield. For intermediate-term outlooks see the latest intermediate-term forecast and for long-term outlooks see the latest long-term forecast.

Technical Analysis

Yields closed sharply higher today, reacting off of recent short-term lows below support at the lower boundary of the uptrend from July. Technical indicators are effectively neutral overall, suggesting that direction is in question.

Cycle Analysis

A cycle low signal was nearly generated today, indicating that the alpha low (AL) of the current cycle likely formed on September 27. We are 3 sessions into the rally phase of the cycle following the short-term cycle high (STCH) on September 13. Cycle translation is in question. An extended rally phase that moves above the last STCH at 1.75% would reconfirm the current bullish translation and favor additional short-term strength. Alternatively, a quick reversal followed by an extended decline phase that moves well below the previous AL at 1.52% would signal the likely transition to a bearish translation. The window during which the next STCH is likely to occur is from October 4 to October 25, with our best estimate being in the October 10 to October 14 range.

  • Last STCH: September 13, 2016
  • Cycle Duration: 13 sessions
  • Cycle Translation: Bullish
  • Next STCH Window: October 4 to October 25; best estimate in the October 10 to October 14 range.
  • Setup Status: No active setups.
  • Trigger Status: No pending triggers.
  • Signal Status: No active signals.
  • Stop Level: None active.

Short-term Outlook

  • Bullish Scenario: A rebound and close above the previous short-term high at 1.73% would reconfirm the uptrend from July and forecast additional gains.
  • Bearish Scenario: A close well below the recent short-term low at 1.56% would predict a move down toward the previous short-term low at 1.46%.

Both scenarios are equally likely.

US Dollar Index Daily Chart Analyses

The following technical and cycle analyses provide short-term forecasts for the US dollar index. For intermediate-term outlooks see the latest intermediate-term forecast and for long-term outlooks see the latest long-term forecast.

Technical Analysis

The index closed slightly lower today, holding below previous highs of the rebound from August. Technical indicators are effectively neutral overall, suggesting that direction is in question.

Cycle Analysis

The advance during the last 4 sessions indicates that the latest short-term cycle low (STCL) likely formed on September 26. We are 4 sessions into the alpha phase rally of the cycle following the STCL on September 26. Cycle translation is in question. A quick reversal followed by an extended alpha phase decline that moves below the STCL in August at 94.14 would reconfirm the current bearish translation and favor additional short-term weakness. Alternatively, an extended alpha phase rally that moves well above the last alpha high (AH) at 96.25 would signal the likely transition to a bullish translation. The window during which the next STCL is likely to occur is from October 20 to November 3, with our best estimate being in the October 25 to October 31 range.

  • Last STCL: September 26, 2016
  • Cycle Duration: 4 sessions
  • Cycle Translation: Bearish
  • Next STCL Window: October 20 to November 3; best estimate in the October 25 to October 31 range.
  • Setup Status: No active setups.
  • Trigger Status: No pending triggers.
  • Signal Status: No active signals.
  • Stop Level: None active.

Short-term Outlook

  • Bullish Scenario: A rebound and close above congestion resistance at the 96.50 level would reconfirm the uptrend from August and predict a move up to the previous short-term high at 97.52.
  • Bearish Scenario: A close below the previous short-term low at 94.14 would predict a move down to congestion support in the 93.50 area.

Both scenarios are equally likely.

Gold Daily Chart Analyses

The following technical and cycle analyses provide short-term forecasts for the gold market. For intermediate-term outlooks see the latest intermediate-term forecast and for long-term outlooks see the latest long-term forecast.

Technical Analysis

Gold closed moderately lower today, moving down toward recent short-term lows near congestion support in the 1,300 area. Technical indicators are slightly bearish overall, tentatively favoring a return to recent lows.

We are 4 sessions into the alpha phase decline of the cycle following the short-term cycle low (STCL) on September 16. Cycle translation is in question. An extended alpha phase decline that moves below the last STCL at 1,310 would reconfirm the current bearish translation and favor additional short-term weakness. Alternatively, a quick rebound followed by an extended beta phase rally that moves well above the alpha high (AH) in early September at 1,358 would signal the likely transition to a bullish translation. The window during which the next STCL is likely to occur is from October 4 to October 14, with our best estimate being in the October 5 to October 11 range.

  • Last STCL: September 16, 2016
  • Cycle Duration: 10 sessions
  • Cycle Translation: Bearish
  • Next STCL Window: October 4 to October 14; best estimate in the October 5 to October 11 range.
  • Setup Status: No active setups.
  • Trigger Status: No pending triggers.
  • Signal Status: No active signals.
  • Stop Level: None active.

Short-term Outlook

  • Bullish Scenario: A rebound and close above the previous short-term high at 1,373 would reconfirm the uptrend from June and forecast additional gains.
  • Bearish Scenario: A close below the recent short-term low at 1,310 would predict a move down to congestion support in the 1,300 area.

The bearish scenario is slightly more likely (~60% probable).

Oil Daily Chart Analyses

The following technical and cycle analyses provide short-term forecasts for the oil market. For intermediate-term outlooks see the latest intermediate-term forecast and for long-term outlooks see the latest long-term forecast.

Technical Analysis

Oil closed moderately higher today, moving up toward previous highs of the uptrend from August. Technical indicators are moderately bullish overall, favoring a return to previous highs of the advance.

Cycle Analysis

We are 3 sessions into the alpha phase rally of the cycle following the short-term cycle low (STCL) on September 27. Cycle translation is in question. A quick reversal followed by an extended alpha phase decline that moves below the STCL in August at 39.51 would reconfirm the current bearish translation and favor additional short-term weakness. Alternatively, an extended alpha phase rally that moves well above the alpha high (AH) in August at 49.11 would signal the likely transition to a bullish translation. The window during which the next STCL is likely to occur is from October 14 to October 28, with our best estimate being in the October 19 to October 25 range.

  • Last STCL: September 27, 2016
  • Cycle Duration: 3 sessions
  • Cycle Translation: Bearish
  • Next STCL Window: October 14 to October 28; best estimate in the October 19 to October 25 range.
  • Setup Status: No active setups.
  • Trigger Status: No pending triggers.
  • Signal Status: No active signals.
  • Stop Level: None active.

Short-term Outlook

  • Bullish Scenario: A close above the recent short-term high at 49.11 would predict a move up to the previous high of the uptrend from February at 51.53.
  • Bearish Scenario: A reversal and close well below congestion support in the 43 area would predict a move down to the previous short-term low at 39.51.

The bullish scenario is more likely (~70% probable).

Category: Forecasts, Short-term Forecasts


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