Short-term Forecast for November 1, 2016

| November 1, 2016

S&P 500 Index Daily Chart Analyses

The following technical and cycle analyses provide short-term forecasts for the S&P 500 index. For intermediate-term outlooks see the latest intermediate-term forecast and for long-term outlooks see the latest long-term forecast.

Technical Analysis

The index closed moderately lower today, moving down to a new low for the downtrend from August and beginning a test of congestion support in the 2,100 area. Technical indicators are extremely bearish overall, strongly favoring a continuation of the decline.

Cycle Analysis

We are 6 sessions into the alpha phase decline of the cycle following the short-term cycle low (STCL) on October 17. The magnitude and duration of the current alpha phase decline reconfirms the current bearish translation and favors additional short-term weakness. The window during which the next STCL is likely to occur is from November 28 to December 16, with our best estimate being in the December 8 to December 14 range.

  • Last STCL: October 17, 2016
  • Cycle Duration: 11 sessions
  • Cycle Translation: Bearish
  • Next STCL Window: November 28 to December 16; best estimate in the December 8 to December 14 range.
  • Setup Status: No active setups.
  • Trigger Status: No pending triggers.
  • Signal Status: No active signals.
  • Stop Level: None active.

Short-term Outlook

  • Bullish Scenario: A rebound and close well above the top of the Bollinger bands at 2,166 would predict a move up toward the previous short-term high at 2,190.
  • Bearish Scenario: A close below current levels would forecast a return to congestion support at the 2,100 level.

The bearish scenario is highly likely (>80% probable).

US 10-year Treasury Note Yield Daily Chart Analyses

The following technical and cycle analyses provide short-term forecasts for the 10-year Treasury note yield. For intermediate-term outlooks see the latest intermediate-term forecast and for long-term outlooks see the latest long-term forecast.

Technical Analysis

Yields closed moderately lower today, retreating from previous highs of the uptrend from July. Technical indicators are moderately bullish overall, favoring a continuation of the advance.

Cycle Analysis

We are 7 sessions into the rally phase of the cycle following the short-term cycle high (STCH) on October 12. The magnitude of the current rally phase reconfirms the current bullish translation and favors additional short-term strength. The window during which the next STCH is likely to occur is from November 2 to November 23, with our best estimate being in the November 4 to November 10 range.

  • Last STCH: October 12, 2016
  • Cycle Duration: 14 sessions
  • Cycle Translation: Bullish
  • Next STCH Window: November 2 to November 23; best estimate in the November 4 to November 10 range.
  • Setup Status: No active setups.
  • Trigger Status: No pending triggers.
  • Signal Status: No active signals.
  • Stop Level: None active.

Short-term Outlook

  • Bullish Scenario: A close above the recent short-term high at 1.87% would reconfirm the uptrend from July and forecast additional gains.
  • Bearish Scenario: A reversal and close below the middle of the Bollinger bands at 1.77% would predict a move down toward uptrend support near 1.63%.

The bullish scenario is more likely (~70% probable).

US Dollar Index Daily Chart Analyses

The following technical and cycle analyses provide short-term forecasts for the US dollar index. For intermediate-term outlooks see the latest intermediate-term forecast and for long-term outlooks see the latest long-term forecast.

Technical Analysis

The index closed sharply lower today, retreating further from previous highs of the uptrend from August. Technical indicators are neutral to slightly bearish overall, suggesting that direction is in question with a slight downward bias.

Cycle Analysis

We are 6 sessions into the beta phase decline of the cycle following the short-term cycle low (STCL) on September 26. The magnitude and duration of the last alpha phase rally reconfirms the current bullish translation and favors additional short-term strength. The window during which the next STCL is likely to occur is now through November 3.

  • Last STCL: September 26, 2016
  • Cycle Duration: 26 sessions
  • Cycle Translation: Bullish
  • Next STCL Window: Now through November 3.
  • Setup Status: No active setups.
  • Trigger Status: No pending triggers.
  • Signal Status: No active signals.
  • Stop Level: None active.

Short-term Outlook

  • Bullish Scenario: A rebound and close well above the previous short-term high at 98.90 would reconfirm the uptrend from August and forecast additional gains.
  • Bearish Scenario: A close below current levels would predict a return to uptrend support near 96.30.

Both scenarios are equally likely.

Gold Daily Chart Analyses

The following technical and cycle analyses provide short-term forecasts for the gold market. For intermediate-term outlooks see the latest intermediate-term forecast and for long-term outlooks see the latest long-term forecast.

Technical Analysis

Gold closed sharply higher today, moving up to a new high for the uptrend from October. Technical indicators are slightly bullish overall, tentatively favoring a continuation of the advance.

We are 6 sessions into the alpha phase rally of the cycle following the short-term cycle low (STCL) on October 24. The quick move above the last beta high (BH) during the current alpha phase rally signals the likely transition to a bullish translation and favors additional short-term weakness. The window during which the next STCL is likely to occur is from November 9 to November 21, with our best estimate being in the November 10 to November 16 range.

  • Last STCL: October 7, 2016
  • Cycle Duration: 6 sessions
  • Cycle Translation: Bullish
  • Next STCL Window: November 9 to November 21; best estimate in the November 10 to November 16 range.
  • Setup Status: No active setups.
  • Trigger Status: No pending triggers.
  • Signal Status: No active signals.
  • Stop Level: None active.

Short-term Outlook

  • Bullish Scenario: A close above current levels would reconfirm the uptrend from October and predict a move up toward congestion resistance in the 1,310 area.
  • Bearish Scenario: A reversal and close below the previous short-term low at 1,252 would reconfirm the downtrend from August and forecast additional losses.

The bullish scenario is slightly more likely (~60% probable).

Oil Daily Chart Analyses

The following technical and cycle analyses provide short-term forecasts for the oil market. For intermediate-term outlooks see the latest intermediate-term forecast and for long-term outlooks see the latest long-term forecast.

Technical Analysis

Oil closed slightly lower today, holding at recent short-term lows below support at the lower boundary of the uptrend from August. Technical indicators are moderately bearish overall, favoring a continuation of the decline from October.

Cycle Analysis

We are 9 sessions into the beta phase decline of the cycle following the short-term cycle low (STCL) on September 27. The magnitude and duration of the last alpha phase rally signals the likely transition to a bullish translation and favors additional short-term strength. The window during which the next STCL is likely to occur is now through November 3.

  • Last STCL: September 27, 2016
  • Cycle Duration: 25 sessions
  • Cycle Translation: Bullish
  • Next STCL Window: Now through November 3.
  • Setup Status: No active setups.
  • Trigger Status: No pending triggers.
  • Signal Status: No active signals.
  • Stop Level: None active.

Short-term Outlook

  • Bullish Scenario: A rebound and close above the previous short-term high at 51.82 would reconfirm the uptrend from August and forecast additional gains.
  • Bearish Scenario: A close below current levels would predict a move down toward congestion support in the 43 area.

The bearish scenario is slightly more likely (~60% probable).

Category: Forecasts, Short-term Forecasts


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