Short-term Forecast for November 11, 2016

| November 11, 2016

S&P 500 Index Daily Chart Analyses

The following technical and cycle analyses provide short-term forecasts for the S&P 500 index. For intermediate-term outlooks see the latest intermediate-term forecast and for long-term outlooks see the latest long-term forecast.

Technical Analysis

The index closed slightly lower today, holding near recent short-term highs above congestion resistance in the 2,160 area. Technical indicators are slightly bullish overall, tentatively favoring a return to previous highs of the long-term uptrend.

Cycle Analysis

We are 5 sessions into the alpha phase rally of the cycle following the short-term cycle low (STCL) on November 4. A quick reversal followed by a move below the last STCL at 2,085 would reconfirm the current bearish translation and favor additional short-term weakness. Alternatively, an extended alpha phase rally that moves well above the last beta high (BH) at 2,155 would suggest that cycle translation is in question. The window during which the next STCL is likely to occur is from December 16 to January 9, with our best estimate being in the December 29 to January 4 range.

  • Last STCL: November 4, 2016
  • Cycle Duration: 5 sessions
  • Cycle Translation: Bearish
  • Next STCL Window: December 16 to January 9; best estimate in the December 29 to January 4.
  • Setup Status: No active setups.
  • Trigger Status: No pending triggers.
  • Signal Status: No active signals.
  • Stop Level: None active.

Short-term Outlook

  • Bullish Scenario: A close above the recent short-term high at 2,167 would predict a move up to congestion resistance in the 2,190 area.
  • Bearish Scenario: A reversal and close well below the 200-day moving average at 2,090 would reconfirm the downtrend from August and forecast additional losses.

The bullish scenario is slightly more likely (~60% probable).

US 10-year Treasury Note Yield Daily Chart Analyses

The following technical and cycle analyses provide short-term forecasts for the 10-year Treasury note yield. For intermediate-term outlooks see the latest intermediate-term forecast and for long-term outlooks see the latest long-term forecast.

Technical Analysis

The Treasury market was closed today. Yields closed sharply higher on November 10, moving up to a new high for the uptrend from July. Technical indicators are extremely bullish overall, strongly favoring a continuation of the advance.

Cycle Analysis

We are 4 sessions into the rally phase of the cycle following the short-term cycle high (STCH) on October 28. The magnitude of the current rally phase reconfirms the current bullish translation and favors additional short-term strength. The window during which the next STCH is likely to occur is from November 18 to December 12, with our best estimate being in the November 21 to November 28 range.

  • Last STCH: October 28, 2016
  • Cycle Duration: 9 sessions
  • Cycle Translation: Bullish
  • Next STCH Window: November 18 to December 12; best estimate in the November 21 to November 28 range.
  • Setup Status: No active setups.
  • Trigger Status: No pending triggers.
  • Signal Status: No active signals.
  • Stop Level: None active.

Short-term Outlook

  • Bullish Scenario: A close above current levels would reconfirm the uptrend from July and forecast additional gains.
  • Bearish Scenario: A reversal and close well below the middle of the Bollinger bands at 1.82% would predict a move down toward uptrend support near 1.66%.

The bullish scenario is highly likely (>80% probable).

US Dollar Index Daily Chart Analyses

The following technical and cycle analyses provide short-term forecasts for the US dollar index. For intermediate-term outlooks see the latest intermediate-term forecast and for long-term outlooks see the latest long-term forecast.

Technical Analysis

The index closed moderately higher today, moving up to a new high for the uptrend from August. Technical indicators are bullish overall, strongly favoring a continuation of the advance.

Cycle Analysis

We are 5 sessions into the alpha phase rally of the cycle following the short-term cycle low (STCL) on November 4. The magnitude and duration of the previous alpha phase rally reconfirms the current bullish translation and favors additional short-term strength. The window during which the next STCL is likely to occur is from December 1 to December 15, with our best estimate being in the December 6 to December 12 range.

  • Last STCL: November 4, 2016
  • Cycle Duration: 5 sessions
  • Cycle Translation: Bullish
  • Next STCL Window: December 1 to December 15; best estimate in the December 6 to December 12 range.
  • Setup Status: No active setups.
  • Trigger Status: No pending triggers.
  • Signal Status: No active signals.
  • Stop Level: None active.

Short-term Outlook

  • Bullish Scenario: A close well above current levels would reconfirm the uptrend from August and forecast additional gains.
  • Bearish Scenario: A reversal and close below the middle of the Bollinger bands at 98.19 would predict a move down toward uptrend support near 96.65.

The bullish scenario is more likely (~70% probable).

Gold Daily Chart Analyses

The following technical and cycle analyses provide short-term forecasts for the gold market. For intermediate-term outlooks see the latest intermediate-term forecast and for long-term outlooks see the latest long-term forecast.

Technical Analysis

Gold closed sharply lower today, moving down to a new low for the downtrend from August. Technical indicators are bearish overall, strongly favoring a continuation of the decline.

We are 5 sessions into the beta phase decline of the cycle following the short-term cycle low (STCL) on October 24. The magnitude and duration of the beta phase decline signals the likely transition to a bearish translation and favors additional short-term weakness. The window during which the next STCL is likely to occur is now through November 21, with our best estimate being now through November 15.

  • Last STCL: October 7, 2016
  • Cycle Duration: 14 sessions
  • Cycle Translation: Bearish
  • Next STCL Window: Now through November 21; best estimate now through November 15.
  • Setup Status: No active setups.
  • Trigger Status: No pending triggers.
  • Signal Status: No active signals.
  • Stop Level: None active.

Short-term Outlook

  • Bullish Scenario: A rebound and close well above congestion resistance in the 1,310 area would reconfirm the uptrend from October and forecast additional gains.
  • Bearish Scenario: A close below congestion support in the 1,215 area would reconfirm the downtrend from August and predict additional losses.

The bearish scenario is highly likely (>80% probable).

Oil Daily Chart Analyses

The following technical and cycle analyses provide short-term forecasts for the oil market. For intermediate-term outlooks see the latest intermediate-term forecast and for long-term outlooks see the latest long-term forecast.

Technical Analysis

Oil closed sharply lower today, moving down to a new low for the downtrend from October. Technical indicators are bearish overall, strongly favoring a continuation of the decline.

Cycle Analysis

The sharp decline today indicates that the alpha high (AH) of the current cycle likely formed on November 9. We are 2 sessions into the alpha phase decline of the cycle following the short-term cycle low (STCL) on November 4. Cycle translation is in question. A quick rebound followed by an extended beta phase rally that moves above the last beta high (BH) at 51.82 would reconfirm the current bullish translation and favor additional short-term strength. Alternatively, an extended alpha phase decline that moves well below the STCL in early September at 43.16 would signal the likely transition to a bearish translation. The window during which the next STCL is likely to occur is from November 23 to December 9, with our best estimate being in the November 29 to December 5 range.

  • Last STCL: November 4, 2016
  • Cycle Duration: 5 sessions
  • Cycle Translation: Bullish
  • Next STCL Window: November 23 to December 9; best estimate in the November 29 to December 5 range.
  • Setup Status: No active setups.
  • Trigger Status: No pending triggers.
  • Signal Status: No active signals.
  • Stop Level: None active.

Short-term Outlook

  • Bullish Scenario: A rebound and close above the middle of the Bollinger bands at 47.64 would predict a move up toward the previous short-term high at 51.82.
  • Bearish Scenario: A close well below congestion support in the 43 area would reconfirm the downtrend from October and forecast additional losses.

The bearish scenario is more likely (~70% probable).

Category: Forecasts, Short-term Forecasts


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