Short-term Forecast for November 30, 2016

| November 30, 2016

S&P 500 Index Daily Chart Analyses

The following technical and cycle analyses provide short-term forecasts for the S&P 500 index. For intermediate-term outlooks see the latest intermediate-term forecast and for long-term outlooks see the latest long-term forecast.

Technical Analysis

The index closed moderately lower today, retreating from previous highs of the long-term uptrend. Technical indicators are moderately bullish overall, favoring a continuation of the advance.

Cycle Analysis

We are 17 sessions into the alpha phase rally of the cycle following the short-term cycle low (STCL) on November 4. The alpha high (AH) is imminent and it could form at any time, if it has not already occurred on November 25. A cycle high setup occurred on November 28, and a close below 2,198 during the next session would generate a cycle high signal and indicate that the alpha phase decline is likely in progress. The magnitude and duration of the current alpha phase rally signals the likely transition to a bullish translation and favors additional short-term strength. The window during which the next STCL is likely to occur is from December 16 to January 9, with our best estimate being in the December 29 to January 4 range.

  • Last STCL: November 4, 2016
  • Cycle Duration: 17 sessions
  • Cycle Translation: Bullish
  • Next STCL Window: December 16 to January 9; best estimate in the December 29 to January 4.
  • Setup Status: Cycle high setup occurred on November 28.
  • Trigger Status: Cycle high trigger is pending from November 28, requiring a close below 2,198 during the next session to generate a cycle high signal.
  • Signal Status: No active signals.
  • Stop Level: None active.

Short-term Outlook

  • Bullish Scenario: A close above the recent short-term high at 2,213 would reconfirm the long-term uptrend and forecast additional gains.
  • Bearish Scenario: A reversal and close well below the middle of the Bollinger bands at 2,168 would predict a move down toward the 200-day moving average at 2,108.

The bullish scenario is more likely (~70% probable).

US 10-year Treasury Note Yield Daily Chart Analyses

The following technical and cycle analyses provide short-term forecasts for the 10-year Treasury note yield. For intermediate-term outlooks see the latest intermediate-term forecast and for long-term outlooks see the latest long-term forecast.

Technical Analysis

Yields closed moderately higher today, returning to previous highs of the uptrend from July. Technical indicators are moderately bullish overall, favoring a continuation of the advance.

Cycle Analysis

We are 3 sessions into the decline phase of the cycle following the short-term cycle high (STCH) on November 25. The magnitude and duration of the last rally phase reconfirms the current bullish translation and favors additional short-term strength. The window during which the next STCH is likely to occur is from December 16 to January 9, with our best estimate being in the December 22 to December 29 range.

  • Last STCH: November 25, 2016
  • Cycle Duration: 3 sessions
  • Cycle Translation: Bullish
  • Next STCH Window: December 16 to January 9; best estimate in the December 22 to December 29.
  • Setup Status: No active setups.
  • Trigger Status: No pending triggers.
  • Signal Status: No active signals.
  • Stop Level: None active.

Short-term Outlook

  • Bullish Scenario: A close well above the recent short-term high at 2.38% would reconfirm the uptrend from July and forecast additional gains.
  • Bearish Scenario: A reversal and close well below power uptrend support near 1.94% would predict a move down toward uptrend support near 1.72%.

The bullish scenario is highly likely (>80% probable).

US Dollar Index Daily Chart Analyses

The following technical and cycle analyses provide short-term forecasts for the US dollar index. For intermediate-term outlooks see the latest intermediate-term forecast and for long-term outlooks see the latest long-term forecast.

Technical Analysis

The index closed moderately higher today, moving up toward previous highs of the uptrend from August. Technical indicators are moderately bullish overall, favoring a continuation of the advance.

Cycle Analysis

We are 4 sessions into the beta phase decline of the cycle following the short-term cycle low (STCL) on November 4. The magnitude and duration of the last alpha phase rally reconfirms the current bullish translation and favors additional short-term strength. The window during which the next STCL is likely to occur is from December 1 to December 15, with our best estimate being in the December 1 to December 7 range.

  • Last STCL: November 4, 2016
  • Cycle Duration: 17 sessions
  • Cycle Translation: Bullish
  • Next STCL Window: December 1 to December 15; best estimate in the December 1 to December 7 range.
  • Setup Status: No active setups.
  • Trigger Status: No pending triggers.
  • Signal Status: No active signals.
  • Stop Level: None active.

Short-term Outlook

  • Bullish Scenario: A close above the recent short-term high at 101.84 would reconfirm the uptrend from August and forecast additional gains.
  • Bearish Scenario: A reversal and close below the middle of the Bollinger bands at 99.80 would predict a move down toward uptrend support near 97.20.

The bullish scenario is more likely (~70% probable).

Gold Daily Chart Analyses

The following technical and cycle analyses provide short-term forecasts for the gold market. For intermediate-term outlooks see the latest intermediate-term forecast and for long-term outlooks see the latest long-term forecast.

Technical Analysis

Gold closed sharply lower today, moving down to a new low for the downtrend from August. Technical indicators are bearish overall, strongly favoring a continuation of the decline.

The sharp decline today indicates that the beta phase decline is likely in progress. We are 1 session into the beta phase decline of the cycle following the short-term cycle low (STCL) on November 14. The magnitude and duration of the last alpha phase decline reconfirms the current bearish translation and favors additional short-term weakness. The window during which the next STCL is likely to occur is from December 1 to December 13, with our best estimate being in the December 5 to December 9 range.

  • Last STCL: November 14, 2016
  • Cycle Duration: 11 sessions
  • Cycle Translation: Bearish
  • Next STCL Window: December 1 to December 13; best estimate in the December 5 to December 9 range.
  • Setup Status: No active setups.
  • Trigger Status: No pending triggers.
  • Signal Status: No active signals.
  • Stop Level: None active.

Short-term Outlook

  • Bullish Scenario: A rebound and close well above the middle of the Bollinger bands at 1,234 would predict a move up toward downtrend resistance near 1,282.
  • Bearish Scenario: A close below current levels would reconfirm the downtrend from August and forecast additional losses.

The bearish scenario is highly likely (>80% probable).

Oil Daily Chart Analyses

The following technical and cycle analyses provide short-term forecasts for the oil market. For intermediate-term outlooks see the latest intermediate-term forecast and for long-term outlooks see the latest long-term forecast.

Technical Analysis

Oil closed sharply higher today, moving up toward previous highs of the uptrend from August. Technical indicators are moderately bullish overall, favoring a return to previous highs of the advance.

Cycle Analysis

A cycle low signal was generated today, indicating that the latest short-term cycle low (STCL) likely formed on November 29. We are 1 session into the alpha phase rally of the cycle following the STCL on November 29. Cycle translation is in question. An extended alpha phase rally that moves above the beta high (BH) in October at 51.82 would reconfirm the current bullish translation and favor additional short-term strength. Alternatively, a quick reversal followed by an extended alpha phase decline that moves well below the STCL in early September at 43.16 would signal the likely transition to a bearish translation. The window during which the next STCL is likely to occur is from December 16 to January 3, with our best estimate being in the December 21 to December 28 range.

  • Last STCL: November 29, 2016
  • Cycle Duration: 1 session
  • Cycle Translation: Bullish
  • Next STCL Window: December 16 to January 3; best estimate in the December 21 to December 28 range.
  • Setup Status: Cycle low setup occurred today.
  • Trigger Status: Cycle low trigger occurred today.
  • Signal Status: Cycle low signal was generated today.
  • Stop Level: None active.

Short-term Outlook

  • Bullish Scenario: A close above congestion resistance in the 50 area would predict a return to the previous high of the uptrend from August at 51.82.
  • Bearish Scenario: A reversal and close below congestion support in the 43 area would reconfirm the downtrend from October and forecast additional losses.

The bullish scenario is more likely (~70% probable).

Category: Forecasts, Short-term Forecasts


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