Short-term Forecast for December 1, 2016

| December 1, 2016

S&P 500 Index Daily Chart Analyses

The following technical and cycle analyses provide short-term forecasts for the S&P 500 index. For intermediate-term outlooks see the latest intermediate-term forecast and for long-term outlooks see the latest long-term forecast.

Technical Analysis

The index closed moderately lower today, retreating further from previous highs of the long-term uptrend. Technical indicators are slightly bullish overall, tentatively favoring a continuation of the advance.

Cycle Analysis

A cycle high signal was generated today, indicating that the alpha high (AH) likely formed on November 25. We are 4 sessions into the alpha phase decline of the cycle following the short-term cycle low (STCL) on November 4. The magnitude and duration of the last alpha phase rally signals the likely transition to a bullish translation and favors additional short-term strength. The window during which the next STCL is likely to occur is from December 16 to January 9, with our best estimate being in the December 29 to January 4 range.

  • Last STCL: November 4, 2016
  • Cycle Duration: 18 sessions
  • Cycle Translation: Bullish
  • Next STCL Window: December 16 to January 9; best estimate in the December 29 to January 4.
  • Setup Status: Cycle high setup occurred on November 28.
  • Trigger Status: Cycle high trigger occurred today.
  • Signal Status: Cycle high signal was generated today.
  • Stop Level: None active.

Short-term Outlook

  • Bullish Scenario: A rebound and close above the recent short-term high at 2,213 would reconfirm the long-term uptrend and forecast additional gains.
  • Bearish Scenario: A close well below the middle of the Bollinger bands at 2,172 would predict a move down toward the 200-day moving average at 2,109.

The bullish scenario is slightly more likely (~60% probable).

US 10-year Treasury Note Yield Daily Chart Analyses

The following technical and cycle analyses provide short-term forecasts for the 10-year Treasury note yield. For intermediate-term outlooks see the latest intermediate-term forecast and for long-term outlooks see the latest long-term forecast.

Technical Analysis

Yields closed moderately higher today, moving up to a new high for the uptrend from July. Technical indicators are bullish overall, strongly favoring a continuation of the advance.

Cycle Analysis

The strong advance today indicates that the alpha low (AL) of the current cycle likely formed on November 29. We are 2 sessions into the rally phase of the cycle following the short-term cycle high (STCH) on November 25. The magnitude and duration of the last rally phase reconfirms the current bullish translation and favors additional short-term strength. The window during which the next STCH is likely to occur is from December 15 to January 9, with our best estimate being in the December 15 to December 21 range.

  • Last STCH: November 25, 2016
  • Cycle Duration: 4 sessions
  • Cycle Translation: Bullish
  • Next STCH Window: December 15 to January 9; best estimate in the December 15 to December 21.
  • Setup Status: No active setups.
  • Trigger Status: No pending triggers.
  • Signal Status: No active signals.
  • Stop Level: None active.

Short-term Outlook

  • Bullish Scenario: A close above current levels would reconfirm the uptrend from July and forecast additional gains.
  • Bearish Scenario: A reversal and close well below power uptrend support near 1.94% would predict a move down toward uptrend support near 1.72%.

The bullish scenario is highly likely (>80% probable).

US Dollar Index Daily Chart Analyses

The following technical and cycle analyses provide short-term forecasts for the US dollar index. For intermediate-term outlooks see the latest intermediate-term forecast and for long-term outlooks see the latest long-term forecast.

Technical Analysis

The index closed moderately lower today, retreating from previous highs of the uptrend from August. Technical indicators are slightly bullish overall, tentatively favoring a continuation of the advance.

Cycle Analysis

We are 5 sessions into the beta phase decline of the cycle following the short-term cycle low (STCL) on November 4. The magnitude and duration of the last alpha phase rally reconfirms the current bullish translation and favors additional short-term strength. The window during which the next STCL is likely to occur is now through December 15, with our best estimate being now through December 7.

  • Last STCL: November 4, 2016
  • Cycle Duration: 18 sessions
  • Cycle Translation: Bullish
  • Next STCL Window: Now through December 15; best estimate now through December 7.
  • Setup Status: No active setups.
  • Trigger Status: No pending triggers.
  • Signal Status: No active signals.
  • Stop Level: None active.

Short-term Outlook

  • Bullish Scenario: A close above the recent short-term high at 101.84 would reconfirm the uptrend from August and forecast additional gains.
  • Bearish Scenario: A reversal and close below the middle of the Bollinger bands at 99.98 would predict a move down toward uptrend support near 97.25.

The bullish scenario is more likely (~70% probable).

Gold Daily Chart Analyses

The following technical and cycle analyses provide short-term forecasts for the gold market. For intermediate-term outlooks see the latest intermediate-term forecast and for long-term outlooks see the latest long-term forecast.

Technical Analysis

Gold closed moderately lower today, moving down to a new low for the downtrend from August. Technical indicators are bearish overall, strongly favoring a continuation of the decline.

We are 2 sessions into the beta phase decline of the cycle following the short-term cycle low (STCL) on November 14. The magnitude and duration of the last alpha phase decline reconfirms the current bearish translation and favors additional short-term weakness. The window during which the next STCL is likely to occur is now through December 13, with our best estimate being in the December 5 to December 9 range.

  • Last STCL: November 14, 2016
  • Cycle Duration: 12 sessions
  • Cycle Translation: Bearish
  • Next STCL Window: Now through December 13; best estimate in the December 5 to December 9 range.
  • Setup Status: No active setups.
  • Trigger Status: No pending triggers.
  • Signal Status: No active signals.
  • Stop Level: None active.

Short-term Outlook

  • Bullish Scenario: A rebound and close well above the middle of the Bollinger bands at 1,227 would predict a move up toward downtrend resistance near 1,280.
  • Bearish Scenario: A close below current levels would reconfirm the downtrend from August and forecast additional losses.

The bearish scenario is highly likely (>80% probable).

Oil Daily Chart Analyses

The following technical and cycle analyses provide short-term forecasts for the oil market. For intermediate-term outlooks see the latest intermediate-term forecast and for long-term outlooks see the latest long-term forecast.

Technical Analysis

Oil closed sharply higher today, returning to previous highs of the uptrend from August. Technical indicators are bullish overall, strongly favoring a continuation of the advance.

Cycle Analysis

We are 2 sessions into the alpha phase rally of the cycle following the short-term cycle low (STCL) on November 29. Cycle translation is in question. An extended alpha phase rally that moves above the beta high (BH) in October at 51.82 would reconfirm the current bullish translation and favor additional short-term strength. Alternatively, a quick reversal followed by an extended alpha phase decline that moves well below the STCL in early September at 43.16 would signal the likely transition to a bearish translation. The window during which the next STCL is likely to occur is from December 16 to January 3, with our best estimate being in the December 21 to December 28 range.

  • Last STCL: November 29, 2016
  • Cycle Duration: 2 sessions
  • Cycle Translation: Bullish
  • Next STCL Window: December 16 to January 3; best estimate in the December 21 to December 28 range.
  • Setup Status: No active setups.
  • Trigger Status: No pending triggers.
  • Signal Status: No active signals.
  • Stop Level: None active.

Short-term Outlook

  • Bullish Scenario: A close above the previous short-term high at 51.82 would reconfirm the uptrend from August and forecast additional gains.
  • Bearish Scenario: A reversal and close below the middle of the Bollinger bands at 46.10 would predict a return to congestion support in the 43 area.

The bullish scenario is more likely (~70% probable).

Category: Forecasts, Short-term Forecasts


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