Short-term Forecast for January 20, 2017

| January 20, 2017

S&P 500 Index Daily Chart Analyses

The following technical and cycle analyses provide short-term forecasts for the S&P 500 index. For intermediate-term outlooks see the latest intermediate-term forecast and for long-term outlooks see the latest long-term forecast.

Technical Analysis

The index closed moderately higher today, moving up toward previous highs of the long-term uptrend. Technical indicators are neutral to slightly bullish overall, suggesting that direction is in question with a slight upward bias.

Cycle Analysis

We are 4 sessions into the alpha phase decline of the cycle following the short-term cycle low (STCL) on December 30. Cycle translation is in question. A quick rebound followed by an extended beta phase rally that moves above the last AH at 2,279 would reconfirm the current bullish translation and favor additional short-term strength. Alternatively, an extended alpha phase decline that moves well below the last STCL at 2,239 would signal the likely transition to a bearish translation. The window during which the next STCL is likely to occur is from February 13 to March 6, with our best estimate being in the February 24 to March 2 range.

  • Last STCL: December 30, 2016
  • Cycle Duration: 13 sessions
  • Cycle Translation: Bullish
  • Next STCL Window: February 13 to March 6; best estimate in the February 24 to March 2 range.
  • Setup Status: No active setups.
  • Trigger Status: No pending triggers.
  • Signal Status: No active signals.
  • Stop Level: None active.

Short-term Outlook

  • Bullish Scenario: A rebound and close well above the recent short-term high at 2,277 would reconfirm the long-term uptrend and forecast additional gains.
  • Bearish Scenario: A close below the previous short-term low at 2,239 would predict a move down toward congestion support in the 2,190 area.

Both scenarios are equally likely.

US 10-year Treasury Note Yield Daily Chart Analyses

The following technical and cycle analyses provide short-term forecasts for the 10-year Treasury note yield. For intermediate-term outlooks see the latest intermediate-term forecast and for long-term outlooks see the latest long-term forecast.

Technical Analysis

Yields closed slightly higher today, holding below previous highs of the uptrend from July. Technical indicators are neutral to slightly bullish overall, suggesting that direction is in question with a slight upward bias.

Cycle Analysis

We are 3 sessions into the rally phase of the cycle following the short-term cycle high (STCH) on December 15. An extended rally phase that moves above the last STCH at 2.62% would reconfirm the current bullish translation and favor additional short-term strength. Alternatively, a quick reversal followed by an extended decline phase that moves well below the last alpha low (AL) at 2.33% would signal the likely transition to a bearish translation. The window during which the next STCH is likely to occur is now through January 27.

  • Last STCH: December 15, 2016
  • Cycle Duration: 24 sessions
  • Cycle Translation: Bullish
  • Next STCH Window: Now through January 27.
  • Setup Status: No active setups.
  • Trigger Status: No pending triggers.
  • Signal Status: No active signals.
  • Stop Level: None active.

Short-term Outlook

  • Bullish Scenario: A close above the previous short-term high at 2.62% would reconfirm the uptrend from July and forecast additional gains.
  • Bearish Scenario: A reversal and close well below power uptrend support near 2.36% would reconfirm the downtrend from December and predict additional losses.

The bullish scenario is slightly more likely (~60% probable).

US Dollar Index Daily Chart Analyses

The following technical and cycle analyses provide short-term forecasts for the US dollar index. For intermediate-term outlooks see the latest intermediate-term forecast and for long-term outlooks see the latest long-term forecast.

Technical Analysis

The index closed moderately lower today, moving down toward recent short-term lows below previous highs of the uptrend from August. Technical indicators are moderately bearish overall, favoring a continuation of the decline from December.

Cycle Analysis

We are 13 sessions into the beta phase decline of the cycle following the short-term cycle low (STCL) on December 8. Cycle translation is in question. A quick rebound followed by an extended alpha phase rally that moves up to new short-term highs would reconfirm the current bullish translation and favors additional short-term strength. Alternatively, an extended beta phase decline that moves well below the last STCL would signal the likely transition to a bearish translation. The window during which the next STCL is likely to occur is now through January 20. The latest STCL may have formed on January 17, although we would need to see additional strength during the next session to confirm that development.

  • Last STCL: December 8, 2016
  • Cycle Duration: 29 sessions
  • Cycle Translation: Bullish
  • Next STCL Window: Now through January 20.
  • Setup Status: No active setups.
  • Trigger Status: No pending triggers.
  • Signal Status: No active signals.
  • Stop Level: None active.

Short-term Outlook

  • Bullish Scenario: A rebound and close well above the previous short-term high at 103.29 would reconfirm the uptrend from August and forecast additional gains.
  • Bearish Scenario: A close well below the recent short-term low at 100.33 would predict a move down toward uptrend support near 98.45.

The bearish scenario is more likely (~70% probable).

Gold Daily Chart Analyses

The following technical and cycle analyses provide short-term forecasts for the gold market. For intermediate-term outlooks see the latest intermediate-term forecast and for long-term outlooks see the latest long-term forecast.

Technical Analysis

Gold closed slightly higher today, holding below recent short-term highs above previous lows of the downtrend from August. Technical indicators are moderately bullish overall, favoring a continuation of the advance.

We are 3 sessions into the beta phase decline of the cycle following the short-term cycle low (STCL) on December 22. The magnitude and duration of the last beta phase rally signals the likely transition to a bullish translation and favors additional short-term strength. The window during which the next STCL is likely to occur is now through January 25.

  • Last STCL: December 22, 2016
  • Cycle Duration: 19 sessions
  • Cycle Translation: Bullish
  • Next STCL Window: Now through January 25.
  • Setup Status: No active setups.
  • Trigger Status: No pending triggers.
  • Signal Status: No active signals.
  • Stop Level: None active.

Short-term Outlook

  • Bullish Scenario: A close above the recent short-term high at 1,217 would reconfirm the uptrend from December and predict a move up to downtrend resistance near 1,240.
  • Bearish Scenario: A reversal and close below the previous short-term low at 1,131 would reconfirm the downtrend from August and forecast additional losses.

The bullish scenario is more likely (~70% probable).

Oil Daily Chart Analyses

The following technical and cycle analyses provide short-term forecasts for the oil market. For intermediate-term outlooks see the latest intermediate-term forecast and for long-term outlooks see the latest long-term forecast.

Technical Analysis

Oil closed moderately higher today, moving up toward previous highs of the uptrend from August. Technical indicators are neutral to slightly bullish overall, suggesting that direction is in question with a slight upward bias.

Cycle Analysis

We are 7 sessions into the alpha phase rally of the cycle following the short-term cycle low (STCL) on January 10. The alpha high (AH) may have formed on January 17, although we would need to see additional weakness during the next session to confirm that development. Cycle translation is in question. An extended alpha phase rally would reconfirm the current bullish translation and favor additional short-term strength. Alternatively, a quick reversal followed by an extended alpha phase decline that moves well below the STCL in early September at 43.16 would signal the likely transition to a bearish translation. The window during which the next STCL is likely to occur is from January 30 to February 13, with our best estimate being in the February 2 to February 8 range.

  • Last STCL: January 10, 2017
  • Cycle Duration: 7 sessions
  • Cycle Translation: Bullish
  • Next STCL Window: January 30 to February 13; best estimate in the February 2 to February 8 range.
  • Setup Status: No active setups.
  • Trigger Status: No pending triggers.
  • Signal Status: No active signals.
  • Stop Level: None active.

Short-term Outlook

  • Bullish Scenario: A close well above the previous short-term high at 54.06 would reconfirm the uptrend from August and forecast additional gains.
  • Bearish Scenario: A reversal and close well congestion support at the 50 level would predict a move down toward congestion support in the 43 area.

The bullish scenario is slightly more likely (~60% probable).

Category: Forecasts, Short-term Forecasts


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