Potential Short-term Signal: 10-year Treasury Note Yield Cycle Analysis

| January 23, 2017

The decline today has caused both short-term cycle oscillators to experience bearish crossovers and a bearish engulf pattern has formed on the daily chart. A close below 2.40% today would generate a cycle high signal and indicate that the latest short-term cycle high (STCH) likely formed on January 20.

Cycle translation is in question. A quick rebound followed by an extended rally phase that moves above the STCH in December at 2.62% would reconfirm the current bullish translation and favor additional short-term strength. Alternatively, an extended decline phase that moves well below the last alpha low (AL) at 2.33% would signal the likely transition to a bearish translation.

Category: Signals, Treasuries

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