Short-term Forecast for March 20, 2017

| March 20, 2017

S&P 500 Index Daily Chart Analyses

The following technical and cycle analyses provide short-term forecasts for the S&P 500 index. For intermediate-term outlooks see the latest intermediate-term forecast and for long-term outlooks see the latest long-term forecast.

Technical Analysis

The index closed slightly lower today, holding below previous highs of the uptrend from November. Technical indicators are slightly bullish overall, tentatively favoring a continuation of the advance.

Cycle Analysis

We are 8 sessions into the alpha phase rally of the cycle following the short-term cycle low (STCL) on March 9. A cycle high setup occurred today, suggesting that the alpha high (AH) may have formed on March 15. A close below 2,365 during the next session would generate a cycle high signal and indicate that the alpha phase decline is likely in progress. Cycle translation is in question. An extended alpha phase rally that moves above the last beta high (BH) at 2,396 would reconfirm the current bullish translation and favor additional short-term strength. Alternatively, an extended alpha phase decline that moves well below the last STCL at 2,354 would signal the likely transition to a bearish translation. The window during which the next STCL is likely to occur is from April 20 to May 10, with our best estimate being in the May 2 to May 8 range.

  • Last STCL: March 9, 2017
  • Cycle Duration: 8 sessions
  • Cycle Translation: Bullish
  • Next STCL Window: April 20 to May 10; best estimate in the May 2 to May 8 range.
  • Setup Status: Cycle high setup occurred today.
  • Trigger Status: Cycle high trigger is pending from today, requiring a close below 2,365 during the next session to generate a cycle high signal.
  • Signal Status: No active signals.
  • Stop Level: None active.

Short-term Outlook

  • Bullish Scenario: A rebound and close above the recent short-term high at 2,396 would reconfirm the long-term uptrend and forecast additional gains.
  • Bearish Scenario: A close well below the middle of the Bollinger bands at 2,373 would predict a move down toward uptrend support near 2,332.

Both scenarios are equally likely.

US 10-year Treasury Note Yield Daily Chart Analyses

The following technical and cycle analyses provide short-term forecasts for the 10-year Treasury note yield. For intermediate-term outlooks see the latest intermediate-term forecast and for long-term outlooks see the latest long-term forecast.

Technical Analysis

Yields closed moderately lower today, retreating further from previous highs of the uptrend from July. Technical indicators are effectively neutral overall, suggesting that direction is in question.

Cycle Analysis

We are 5 sessions into the decline phase of the cycle following the short-term cycle high (STCH) on March 13. Cycle translation is in question. A quick rebound followed by an extended rally phase that moves well above the last STCH at 2.61% would reconfirm the current bullish translation and favor additional short-term strength. Alternatively, an extended decline phase that moves well below the last alpha low (AL) at 2.31% would signal the likely transition to a bearish translation. The window during which the next STCL is likely to occur is from April 3 to April 24, with our best estimate being in the April 10 to April 14 range.

  • Last STCH: March 13, 2017
  • Cycle Duration: 5 sessions
  • Cycle Translation: Bullish
  • Next STCH Window: April 3 to April 24; best estimate in the April 10 to April 14 range.
  • Setup Status: No active setups.
  • Trigger Status: No pending triggers.
  • Signal Status: No active signals.
  • Stop Level: None active.

Short-term Outlook

  • Bullish Scenario: A rebound and close well above the previous short-term high at 2.62% would reconfirm the uptrend from July and forecast additional gains.
  • Bearish Scenario: A close well below congestion support in the 2.30% area would confirm the start of a new downtrend and predict additional losses.

The bullish scenario is slightly more likely (~60% probable).

US Dollar Index Daily Chart Analyses

The following technical and cycle analyses provide short-term forecasts for the US dollar index. For intermediate-term outlooks see the latest intermediate-term forecast and for long-term outlooks see the latest long-term forecast.

Technical Analysis

The index closed slightly higher today, holding near recent short-term lows below support at the lower boundary of the uptrend from August. Technical indicators are moderately bearish overall, favoring a continuation of the decline from early March.

Cycle Analysis

We are 12 sessions into the beta phase decline of the cycle following the short-term cycle low (STCL) on January 31. Cycle translation is in question. A quick rebound followed by an extended alpha phase rally that moves up to new short-term highs would reconfirm the current bullish translation and favors additional short-term strength. Alternatively, an extended beta phase decline that moves well below the last STCL at 99.48 would signal the likely transition to a bearish translation. The window during which the next STCL is likely to occur is now through March 22.

  • Last STCL: January 31, 2016
  • Cycle Duration: 33 sessions
  • Cycle Translation: Bullish
  • Next STCL Window: Now through March 22.
  • Setup Status: No active setups.
  • Trigger Status: No pending triggers.
  • Signal Status: No active signals.
  • Stop Level: None active.

Short-term Outlook

  • Bullish Scenario: A rebound and close well above the previous short-term high at 103.29 would reconfirm the uptrend from August and forecast additional gains.
  • Bearish Scenario: A close well below current levels would predict a move down toward the previous short-term low at 99.48.

The bearish scenario is more likely (~70% probable).

Gold Daily Chart Analyses

The following technical and cycle analyses provide short-term forecasts for the gold market. For intermediate-term outlooks see the latest intermediate-term forecast and for long-term outlooks see the latest long-term forecast.

Technical Analysis

Gold closed moderately higher today, moving up toward previous highs of the uptrend from December. Technical indicators are neutral to slightly bullish overall, suggesting that direction is in question with a slight upward bias.

Cycle Analysis

We are 6 sessions into the alpha phase rally of the cycle following the short-term cycle low (STCL) on March 10. The magnitude and duration of the last beta phase decline signals the likely transition to a bearish translation and favors additional short-term weakness. The window during which the next STCL is likely to occur is from March 28 to April 7, with our best estimate being in the March 29 to April 4 range.

  • Last STCL: March 10, 2017
  • Cycle Duration: 6 sessions
  • Cycle Translation: Bearish
  • Next STCL Window: March 28 to April 7; best estimate in the March 29 to April 4 range.
  • Setup Status: No active setups.
  • Trigger Status: No pending triggers.
  • Signal Status: No active signals.
  • Stop Level: None active.

Short-term Outlook

  • Bullish Scenario: A close well above the previous short-term high at 1,268 would reconfirm the uptrend from December and forecast additional gains.
  • Bearish Scenario: A reversal and close below the recent short-term low at 1,200 would predict a move down toward the previous short-term low at 1,131.

The bearish scenario is slightly more likely (~60% probable).

Oil Daily Chart Analyses

The following technical and cycle analyses provide short-term forecasts for the oil market. For intermediate-term outlooks see the latest intermediate-term forecast and for long-term outlooks see the latest long-term forecast.

Technical Analysis

Oil closed moderately lower today, moving down toward recent lows of the downtrend from February. Technical indicators are moderately bearish overall, favoring a continuation of the decline from February.

Cycle Analysis

We are 4 sessions into the alpha phase rally of the cycle following the short-term cycle low (STCL) on March 14. The magnitude and duration of the last beta phase decline signals the likely transition to a bearish translation and favors additional short-term weakness. The window during which the next STCL is likely to occur is from March 31 to April 17, with our best estimate being in the April 5 to May 11 range.

  • Last STCL: March 14, 2017
  • Cycle Duration: 4 sessions
  • Cycle Translation: Bearish
  • Next STCL Window: March 31 to April 17; best estimate in the April 5 to May 11 range.
  • Setup Status: No active setups.
  • Trigger Status: No pending triggers.
  • Signal Status: No active signals.
  • Stop Level: None active.

Short-term Outlook

  • Bullish Scenario: A rebound and close well above the previous short-term high at 53.59 would reconfirm the uptrend from August and forecast additional gains.
  • Bearish Scenario: A close below the recent short-term low at 47.72 would reconfirm the downtrend from February and predict additional losses.

The bearish scenario is more likely (~70% probable).

Category: Forecasts, Short-term Forecasts


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