Short-term Forecast for April 13, 2017

| April 13, 2017

S&P 500 Index Daily Chart Analyses

The following technical and cycle analyses provide short-term forecasts for the S&P 500 index. For intermediate-term outlooks see the latest intermediate-term forecast and for long-term outlooks see the latest long-term forecast.

Technical Analysis

The index closed moderately lower today, moving further below support at the lower boundary of the uptrend from November. Technical indicators are slightly bearish overall, tentatively favoring a continuation of the decline from March.

Cycle Analysis

We are 10 sessions into the beta phase decline of the cycle following the short-term cycle low (STCL) on March 9. Cycle translation is in question. A quick rebound followed by an extended alpha phase rally that moves above the beta high (BH) in March at 2,396 would reconfirm the current bullish translation and favor additional short-term strength. Alternatively, an extended beta phase decline that moves well below the last beta low (BL) at 2,322 would signal the likely transition to a bearish translation. The window during which the next STCL is likely to occur is from April 17 to May 10, with our best estimate being in the April 17 to April 21 range.

  • Last STCL: March 9, 2017
  • Cycle Duration: 25 sessions
  • Cycle Translation: Bullish
  • Next STCL Window: April 17 to May 10; best estimate in the April 17 to April 21 range.
  • Setup Status: No active setups.
  • Trigger Status: No pending triggers.
  • Signal Status: No active signals.
  • Stop Level: None active.

Short-term Outlook

  • Bullish Scenario: A rebound and close above the previous short-term high at 2,396 would reconfirm the long-term uptrend and forecast additional gains.
  • Bearish Scenario: A close below current levels would reconfirm the downtrend from early March and predict additional losses.

The bearish scenario is more likely (~70% probable).

US 10-year Treasury Note Yield Daily Chart Analyses

The following technical and cycle analyses provide short-term forecasts for the 10-year Treasury note yield. For intermediate-term outlooks see the latest intermediate-term forecast and for long-term outlooks see the latest long-term forecast.

Technical Analysis

Yields closed sharply lower today, moving below congestion support in the 2.30% area below previous highs of the uptrend from July. Technical indicators are bearish overall, strongly favoring a continuation of the downtrend from March.

Cycle Analysis

The character of the decline during the last 4 sessions has caused a change to our preferred scenario and it is now likely that the latest short-term cycle high (STCH) occurred on March 30. We are 10 sessions into the decline phase of the cycle following the STCH on March 30. The magnitude and duration of the current decline phase signals the likely transition to a bearish translation and favors additional short-term weakness. The window during which the next STCH is likely to occur is from April 25 to May 15, with our best estimate being in the May 1 and May 5 range.

  • Last STCH: March 30, 2017
  • Cycle Duration: 10 sessions
  • Cycle Translation: Bearish
  • Next STCH Window: April 25 to May 15; best estimate in the May 1 and May 5 range.
  • Setup Status: No active setups.
  • Trigger Status: No pending triggers.
  • Signal Status: No active signals.
  • Stop Level: None active.

Short-term Outlook

  • Bullish Scenario: A rebound and close well above the previous short-term high at 2.62% would reconfirm the uptrend from July and forecast additional gains.
  • Bearish Scenario: A close below current levels would reconfirm the downtrend from March and predict additional losses.

The bearish scenario is highly likely (>80% probable).

US Dollar Index Daily Chart Analyses

The following technical and cycle analyses provide short-term forecasts for the US dollar index. For intermediate-term outlooks see the latest intermediate-term forecast and for long-term outlooks see the latest long-term forecast.

Technical Analysis

The index closed moderately lower today, retreating further from recent short-term highs below resistance at the upper boundary of the downtrend from January. Technical indicators are effectively neutral overall, suggesting that direction is in question.

Cycle Analysis

We are 4 sessions into the alpha phase decline of the cycle following the short-term cycle low (STCL) on March 27. Cycle translation is in question. A quick rebound followed by an extended beta phase rally that moves up to new short-term highs would reconfirm the current bullish translation and favors additional short-term strength. Alternatively, an extended alpha phase decline that moves well below the last STCL at 98.67 would signal the likely transition to a bearish translation. The window during which the next STCL is likely to occur is from April 21 to May 5, with our best estimate being in the April 26 to May 2 range.

  • Last STCL: March 27, 2017
  • Cycle Duration: 13 sessions
  • Cycle Translation: Bullish
  • Next STCL Window: April 21 to May 5; best estimate in the April 26 to May 2 range.
  • Setup Status: No active setups.
  • Trigger Status: No pending triggers.
  • Signal Status: No active signals.
  • Stop Level: None active.

Short-term Outlook

  • Bullish Scenario: A rebound and close above the recent short-term high at 102.20 would predict a return to the previous short-term high at 103.29.
  • Bearish Scenario: A close below the previous short-term low at 99.44 would reconfirm the downtrend from January and predict additional losses.

Both scenarios are equally likely.

Gold Daily Chart Analyses

The following technical and cycle analyses provide short-term forecasts for the gold market. For intermediate-term outlooks see the latest intermediate-term forecast and for long-term outlooks see the latest long-term forecast.

Technical Analysis

Gold closed moderately higher today, moving up to a new high for the uptrend from December. Technical indicators are bullish overall, strongly favoring a continuation of the advance.

Cycle Analysis

The strong advance during the last 3 sessions indicates that the beta phase rally of the current cycle is likely in progress. We are 3 sessions into the beta phase rally of the cycle following the short-term cycle low (STCL) on March 31. The formation of the latest STCL well above the previous STCL signals the likely transition to a bullish translation and favors additional short-term strength. The window during which the next STCL is likely to occur is from April 18 to April 27, with our best estimate being in the April 19 to April 25 range.

  • Last STCL: March 31, 2017
  • Cycle Duration: 10 sessions
  • Cycle Translation: Bullish
  • Next STCL Window: April 18 to April 27; best estimate in the April 19 to April 25 range.
  • Setup Status: No active setups.
  • Trigger Status: No pending triggers.
  • Signal Status: No active signals.
  • Stop Level: None active.

Short-term Outlook

  • Bullish Scenario: A close above current levels would reconfirm the uptrend from December and forecast additional gains.
  • Bearish Scenario: A reversal and close below the recent short-term low at 1,200 would predict a move down toward the previous short-term low at 1,131.

The bullish scenario is highly likely (>80% probable).

Oil Daily Chart Analyses

The following technical and cycle analyses provide short-term forecasts for the oil market. For intermediate-term outlooks see the latest intermediate-term forecast and for long-term outlooks see the latest long-term forecast.

Technical Analysis

Oil closed slightly higher today, holding below previous highs of the uptrend from November. Technical indicators are moderately bullish overall, favoring a return to previous highs of the advance.

Cycle Analysis

We are 2 sessions into the beta phase decline of the cycle following the short-term cycle low (STCL) on March 14. Cycle translation is in question. An extended beta phase decline that moves below the last STCL at 47.09 would reconfirm the current bearish translation and favor additional short-term weakness. Alternatively, a quick rebound followed by an extended alpha phase rally that moves well above the beta high (BH) in March at 54.45 would signal the likely transition to a bullish translation. The window during which the next STCL is likely to occur is now through April 20.

  • Last STCL: March 14, 2017
  • Cycle Duration: 22 sessions
  • Cycle Translation: Bearish
  • Next STCL Window: Now through April 20.
  • Setup Status: No active setups.
  • Trigger Status: No pending triggers.
  • Signal Status: No active signals.
  • Stop Level: None active.

Short-term Outlook

  • Bullish Scenario: A close well above congestion resistance in the 54 area would reconfirm the uptrend from November and forecast additional gains.
  • Bearish Scenario: A reversal and close below congestion support at the 50 level would predict a return to the previous short-term low at 47.67.

The bullish scenario is slightly more likely (~60% probable).

Category: Forecasts, Short-term Forecasts


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