Intermediate-term Forecast for April 15, 2017

| April 15, 2017

S&P 500 Index Weekly Chart Analyses

The following technical and cycle analyses provide intermediate-term forecasts for the S&P 500 index. For short-term outlooks see the latest short-term forecast and for long-term outlooks see the latest long-term forecast.

Technical Analysis

The index closed moderately lower this week, retreating further from previous highs of the cyclical bull market from 2009. Although the index has moved up to new nominal all-time highs, it remains likely that we are currently in the speculative blow-off phase of a long-term top that has been forming since late 2014. Technical indicators are slightly bullish overall, tentatively favoring a continuation of the uptrend from early 2016.

Cycle Analysis

We are 6 weeks into the second decline phase of the cycle following the intermediate-term cycle low (ITCL) that occurred during the week ending November 4. The magnitude and duration of the last rally phase reconfirms the current bullish translation and favors additional intermediate-term strength. The window during which the next ITCL is likely to occur is now through April 28.

  • Last ITCL: November 4, 2016
  • Cycle Duration: 23 weeks
  • Cycle Translation: Bullish
  • Next ITCL Window: Now through April 28.
  • Setup Status: No active setups.
  • Trigger Status: No pending triggers.
  • Signal Status: No active signals.
  • Stop Level: None active.

Intermediate-term Outlook

  • Bullish Scenario: A rebound and weekly close above the recent high at 2,383 would reconfirm the long-term uptrend and forecast additional gains.
  • Bearish Scenario: A close well below the middle of the Bollinger bands at 2,309 would predict a move down toward uptrend support near 2,240.

The bullish scenario is slightly more likely (~60% probable).

US 10-year Treasury Note Yield Weekly Chart Analyses

The following technical and cycle analyses provide intermediate-term forecasts for the US 10-year Treasury note yield. For short-term outlooks see the latest short-term forecast and for long-term outlooks see the latest long-term forecast.

Technical Analysis

Yields closed sharply lower this week, retreating further from previous highs of the uptrend from July. Technical indicators are slightly bearish overall, tentatively favoring a continuation of the decline from December.

Cycle Analysis

We are 5 weeks into the decline phase of the cycle following the intermediate-term cycle high (ITCH) that occurred during the week ending March 24. A quick rebound and move up to new highs would reconfirm the current bullish translation and favor additional intermediate-term strength. Alternatively, an extended decline phase that moves well below the last intermediate-term cycle low (ITCL) at 2.31% would signal the likely transition to a bearish translation. The window during which the next ITCH is likely to occur is from June 2 to June 30.

  • Last ITCH: March 24, 2017
  • Cycle Duration: 5 weeks
  • Cycle Translation: Bullish
  • Next ITCH Window: June 2 to June 30.
  • Setup Status: No active setups.
  • Trigger Status: No pending triggers.
  • Signal Status: No active signals.
  • Stop Level: None active.

Intermediate-term Outlook

  • Bullish Scenario: A rebound and weekly close above the previous short-term high at 2.60% would reconfirm the uptrend from July and forecast additional gains.
  • Bearish Scenario: A close below current levels would reconfirm the downtrend from December and predict additional losses.

The bearish scenario is slightly more likely (~60% probable).

US Dollar Index Weekly Chart Analyses

The following technical and cycle analyses provide intermediate-term forecasts for the US dollar index. For short-term outlooks see the latest short-term forecast and for long-term outlooks see the latest long-term forecast.

Technical Analysis

The index closed moderately lower this week, moving down toward recent lows of the downtrend from December near congestion support in the 100 area. Technical indicators are neutral to slightly bullish overall, suggesting that direction is in question with a slight upward bias.

Cycle Analysis

We are 3 weeks into the second rally phase of the cycle following the intermediate-term cycle low (ITCL) that occurred during the week ending February 3. Cycle translation is in question. An extended rally phase that moves up to new long-term highs would reconfirm the current bullish translation and favor additional intermediate-term strength. Alternatively, a quick reversal followed by an extended decline phase that moves well below the last ITCL at 99.76 would signal the likely transition to a bearish translation. The window during which the next ITCL is likely to occur is from June 9 to July 28, with our best estimate being in the June 16 to July 14 range.

  • Last ITCL: February 3, 2017
  • Cycle Duration: 10 weeks
  • Cycle Translation: Bullish
  • Next ITCL Window: June 9 to July 28; best estimate in the June 16 to July 14 range.
  • Setup Status: No active setups.
  • Trigger Status: No pending triggers.
  • Signal Status: No active signals.
  • Stop Level: None active.

Intermediate-term Outlook

  • Bullish Scenario: A rebound and weekly close well above the previous high at 103.06 would reconfirm the long-term uptrend and forecast additional gains.
  • Bearish Scenario: A close well below congestion support in the 100 area would predict a move down toward congestion support at the 93 level.

Both scenarios are equally likely.

Gold Weekly Chart Analyses

The following technical and cycle analyses provide intermediate-term forecasts for the US dollar index. For short-term outlooks see the latest short-term forecast and for long-term outlooks see the latest long-term forecast.

Technical Analysis

Gold closed sharply higher this week, moving up to a new high for the uptrend from December. Technical indicators are moderately bullish overall, favoring a continuation of the advance.

Cycle Analysis

We are 5 weeks into the second rally phase of the cycle following the intermediate-term cycle low (ITCL) that occurred during the week ending December 23. The magnitude of the second rally phase of the current cycle signals the likely transition to a bullish translation and favors additional intermediate-term strength. The window during which the next ITCL is likely to occur is now through June 2, with our best estimate being in the May 5 to June 2 range.

  • Last ITCL: December 23, 2016
  • Cycle Duration: 16 weeks
  • Cycle Translation: Bullish
  • Next ITCL Window: Now through June 2; best estimate in the May 5 to June 2 range.
  • Setup Status: No active setups.
  • Trigger Status: No pending triggers.
  • Signal Status: No active signals.
  • Stop Level: None active.

Intermediate-term Outlook

  • Bullish Scenario: A weekly close well above congestion resistance in the 1,300 area would reconfirm the uptrend from December and forecast additional gains.
  • Bearish Scenario: A reversal and close below congestion support at the 1,200 level would predict a return to the previous short-term low at 1,134.

The bullish scenario is more likely (~70% probable).

Oil Weekly Chart Analyses

The following technical and cycle analyses provide intermediate-term forecasts for the US dollar index. For short-term outlooks see the latest short-term forecast and for long-term outlooks see the latest long-term forecast.

Technical Analysis

Oil closed slightly higher this week, holding near previous highs of the uptrend from 2016. Technical indicators are slightly bullish overall, tentatively favoring a continuation of the advance.

Cycle Analysis

A cycle low signal was generated this week, indicating that the latest intermediate-term cycle low (ITCL) likely formed during the week ending March 24. We are 3 weeks into the rally phase of the cycle following the ITCL that occurred during the week ending March 24. The formation of the latest ITCL well above the ITCL in August signals the likely transition to a bullish translation and favors additional intermediate-term strength. The window during which the next ITCL is likely to occur is from July 7 to November 24, with our best estimate being in the September 1 to September 29 range.

  • Last ITCL: March 24, 2017
  • Cycle Duration: 3 weeks
  • Cycle Translation: Bullish
  • Next ITCL Window: July 7 to November 24; best estimate in the September 1 to September 29 range.
  • Setup Status: Cycle low setup occurred this week.
  • Trigger Status: Cycle low trigger occurred this week.
  • Signal Status: Cycle low signal was generated this week.
  • Stop Level: None active.

Intermediate-term Outlook

  • Bullish Scenario: A weekly close well above the previous intermediate-term high at 53.99 would reconfirm the uptrend from 2016 and forecast additional gains.
  • Bearish Scenario: A reversal and close below congestion support in the 45 area would predict a move down to congestion support at the 40 level.

The bullish scenario is more likely (~70% probable).

Category: Forecasts, Intermediate-term Forecasts


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