Short-term Forecast for April 28, 2017

| April 28, 2017

S&P 500 Index Daily Chart Analyses

The following technical and cycle analyses provide short-term forecasts for the S&P 500 index. For intermediate-term outlooks see the latest intermediate-term forecast and for long-term outlooks see the latest long-term forecast.

Technical Analysis

The index closed slightly lower today, holding near previous highs of the uptrend from November. Technical indicators are moderately bullish overall, favoring a continuation of the advance.

Cycle Analysis

We are 10 sessions into the alpha phase rally of the cycle following the short-term cycle low (STCL) on April 13. Cycle translation is in question. An extended alpha phase rally that moves above the beta high (BH) in March at 2,396 would reconfirm the current bullish translation and favor additional short-term strength. Alternatively, a quick reversal followed by an extended alpha phase decline that moves well below the last beta low (BL) at 2,322 would signal the likely transition to a bearish translation. The window during which the next STCL is likely to occur is from May 25 to June 15, with our best estimate being in the June 7 to June 13 range.

  • Last STCL: April 13, 2017
  • Cycle Duration: 10 sessions
  • Cycle Translation: Bullish
  • Next STCL Window: May 25 to June 15; best estimate in the June 7 to June 13 range.
  • Setup Status: No active setups.
  • Trigger Status: No pending triggers.
  • Signal Status: No active signals.
  • Stop Level: None active.

Short-term Outlook

  • Bullish Scenario: A close above the previous short-term high at 2,396 would reconfirm the long-term uptrend and forecast additional gains.
  • Bearish Scenario: A reversal and close below the recent short-term low at 2,329 would reconfirm the downtrend from early March and predict additional losses.

The bullish scenario is more likely (~70% probable).

US 10-year Treasury Note Yield Daily Chart Analyses

The following technical and cycle analyses provide short-term forecasts for the 10-year Treasury note yield. For intermediate-term outlooks see the latest intermediate-term forecast and for long-term outlooks see the latest long-term forecast.

Technical Analysis

Yields closed moderately lower today, retreating further from recent short-term highs above resistance at the upper boundary of the downtrend from March. Technical indicators are slightly bearish overall, tentatively favoring a continuation of the decline.

Cycle Analysis

We are 8 sessions into the rally phase of the cycle following the short-term cycle high (STCH) on March 30. The magnitude and duration of the previous decline phase signals the likely transition to a bearish translation and favors additional short-term weakness. The window during which the next STCH is likely to occur is now through May 15, with our best estimate being in the May 1 and May 5 range. The latest STCH may have formed on April 26, although we would need to see additional weakness to confirm that development.

  • Last STCH: March 30, 2017
  • Cycle Duration: 20 sessions
  • Cycle Translation: Bearish
  • Next STCH Window: Now through May 15; best estimate in the May 1 and May 5 range.
  • Setup Status: No active setups.
  • Trigger Status: No pending triggers.
  • Signal Status: No active signals.
  • Stop Level: None active.

Short-term Outlook

  • Bullish Scenario: A rebound and close well above the previous short-term high at 2.62% would reconfirm the uptrend from July and forecast additional gains.
  • Bearish Scenario: A close below the recent short-term low at 2.18% would reconfirm the downtrend from March and predict additional losses.

The bearish scenario is slightly more likely (~60% probable).

US Dollar Index Daily Chart Analyses

The following technical and cycle analyses provide short-term forecasts for the US dollar index. For intermediate-term outlooks see the latest intermediate-term forecast and for long-term outlooks see the latest long-term forecast.

Technical Analysis

The index closed slightly lower today, holding above recent lows of the downtrend from January. Technical indicators are moderately bearish overall, favoring a continuation of the decline.

Cycle Analysis

We are 5 sessions into the beta phase decline of the cycle following the short-term cycle low (STCL) on March 27. Cycle translation is in question. A quick rebound followed by an extended alpha phase rally that moves up to new short-term highs would reconfirm the current bullish translation and favors additional short-term strength. Alternatively, an extended beta phase decline that moves well below the last STCL at 98.67 would signal the likely transition to a bearish translation. The window during which the next STCL is likely to occur is now through May 5, with our best estimate being now through May 1. The latest STCL may have formed on April 25, although we would need to see additional strength during the next session to confirm that development.

  • Last STCL: March 27, 2017
  • Cycle Duration: 22 sessions
  • Cycle Translation: Bullish
  • Next STCL Window: Now through May 5; best estimate now through May 1.
  • Setup Status: No active setups.
  • Trigger Status: No pending triggers.
  • Signal Status: No active signals.
  • Stop Level: None active.

Short-term Outlook

  • Bullish Scenario: A rebound and close above the recent short-term high at 102.20 would predict a return to the previous short-term high at 103.29.
  • Bearish Scenario: A close well below the recent short-term low at 98.65 would reconfirm the downtrend from January and predict additional losses.

The bearish scenario is more likely (~70% probable).

Gold Daily Chart Analyses

The following technical and cycle analyses provide short-term forecasts for the gold market. For intermediate-term outlooks see the latest intermediate-term forecast and for long-term outlooks see the latest long-term forecast.

Technical Analysis

Gold closed slightly higher today, holding below previous highs of the uptrend from December. Technical indicators are neutral to slightly bullish overall, suggesting that direction is in question with a slight upward bias.

Cycle Analysis

We are 8 sessions into the beta phase decline of the cycle following the short-term cycle low (STCL) on March 31. The magnitude and duration of the last beta phase rally reconfirms the current bullish translation and favors additional short-term strength. The window during which the next STCL is likely to occur is now through May 1. The latest STCL may have formed on April 26, although we would need to see additional strength during the next session to confirm that development.

  • Last STCL: March 31, 2017
  • Cycle Duration: 20 sessions
  • Cycle Translation: Bullish
  • Next STCL Window: Now through May 1.
  • Setup Status: No active setups.
  • Trigger Status: No pending triggers.
  • Signal Status: No active signals.
  • Stop Level: None active.

Short-term Outlook

  • Bullish Scenario: A rebound and close above the recent short-term high at 1,292 would reconfirm the uptrend from December and forecast additional gains.
  • Bearish Scenario: A close below the recent short-term low at 1,200 would predict a move down toward the previous short-term low at 1,131.

The bullish scenario is slightly more likely (~60% probable).

Oil Daily Chart Analyses

The following technical and cycle analyses provide short-term forecasts for the oil market. For intermediate-term outlooks see the latest intermediate-term forecast and for long-term outlooks see the latest long-term forecast.

Technical Analysis

Oil closed moderately higher today, reacting off of recent short-term lows above previous lows of the downtrend from February. Technical indicators are moderately bearish overall, favoring a return to previous lows of the decline.

Cycle Analysis

We are 12 sessions into the beta phase decline of the cycle following the short-term cycle low (STCL) on March 14. Cycle translation is in question. An extended beta phase decline that moves below the last STCL at 47.09 would reconfirm the current bearish translation and favor additional short-term weakness. Alternatively, a quick rebound followed by an extended alpha phase rally that moves well above the beta high (BH) in March at 54.45 would signal the likely transition to a bullish translation. The window during which the next STCL is likely to occur is now through May 1. The latest STCL may have formed on April 27, although we would need to see additional strength during the next session to confirm that development.

  • Last STCL: March 14, 2017
  • Cycle Duration: 32 sessions
  • Cycle Translation: Bearish
  • Next STCL Window: Now through May 1.
  • Setup Status: No active setups.
  • Trigger Status: No pending triggers.
  • Signal Status: No active signals.
  • Stop Level: None active.

Short-term Outlook

  • Bullish Scenario: A rebound and close well above congestion resistance in the 54 area would reconfirm the uptrend from November and forecast additional gains.
  • Bearish Scenario: A close below the recent short-term low at 48.97 would predict a return to the previous short-term low at 47.67.

The bearish scenario is more likely (~70% probable).

Category: Forecasts, Short-term Forecasts


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