Short-term Forecast for August 11, 2017

| August 11, 2017

S&P 500 Index Daily Chart Analyses

The following technical and cycle analyses provide short-term forecasts for the S&P 500 index. For intermediate-term outlooks see the latest intermediate-term forecast and for long-term outlooks see the latest long-term forecast.

Technical Analysis

The index closed slightly higher today, holding near recent short-term lows above support at the lower boundary of the uptrend from November. Technical indicators are moderately bearish overall, favoring a continuation of the decline from the beginning of the week.

Cycle Analysis

We are 12 sessions into the alpha phase decline of the cycle following the short-term cycle low (STCL) on July 6. Cycle translation is in question. A quick rebound followed by an extended beta phase rally that moves up to new highs would reconfirm the current bullish translation and favor additional short-term strength. Alternatively, an extended alpha phase decline that moves well below the last STCL at 2,410 would signal the likely transition to a bearish translation. The window during which the next STCL is likely to occur is from August 16 to September 6, with our best estimate being in the August 28 to September 1 range.

  • Last STCL: July 6, 2017
  • Cycle Duration: 25 sessions
  • Cycle Translation: Bullish
  • Next STCL Window: August 16 to September 6; best estimate in the August 28 to September 1 range.
  • Setup Status: No active setups.
  • Trigger Status: No pending triggers.
  • Signal Status: No active signals.
  • Stop Level: None active.

Short-term Outlook

  • Bullish Scenario: A rebound and close well above the previous short-term high at 2,483 would reconfirm the long-term uptrend and forecast additional gains.
  • Bearish Scenario: A close well below current levels would predict a return to uptrend support near 2,423.

The bearish scenario is more likely (~70% probable).

US 10-year Treasury Note Yield Daily Chart Analyses

The following technical and cycle analyses provide short-term forecasts for the 10-year Treasury note yield. For intermediate-term outlooks see the latest intermediate-term forecast and for long-term outlooks see the latest long-term forecast.

Technical Analysis

Yields closed moderately lower today, moving down toward previous lows of the downtrend from March. Technical indicators are bearish overall, strongly favoring a return to previous lows of the decline.

Cycle Analysis

We are 11 sessions into the decline phase of the cycle following the short-term cycle high (STCH) on July 28. Cycle translation is in question. An extended decline phase that moves below the second alpha low (AL) in June at 2.12% would reconfirm the current bearish translation and favor additional short-term weakness. Alternatively, a quick rebound followed by an extended rally phase that moves well above the STCH in early July at 2.39% would signal the likely transition to a bullish translation. The window during which the next STCH is likely to occur is from August 18 to September 11, with our best estimate being in the August 24 to August 30 range.

  • Last STCH: July 28, 2017
  • Cycle Duration: 11 sessions
  • Cycle Translation: Bearish
  • Next STCH Window: August 18 to September 11; best estimate in the August 24 to August 30 range.
  • Setup Status: No active setups.
  • Trigger Status: No pending triggers.
  • Signal Status: No active signals.
  • Stop Level: None active.

Short-term Outlook

  • Bullish Scenario: A rebound and close above the previous short-term high at 2.39% would reconfirm the uptrend from June and forecast additional gains.
  • Bearish Scenario: A close below current levels would predict a return to the previous short-term low at 2.13%.

The bearish scenario is more likely (~70% probable).

US Dollar Index Daily Chart Analyses

The following technical and cycle analyses provide short-term forecasts for the US dollar index. For intermediate-term outlooks see the latest intermediate-term forecast and for long-term outlooks see the latest long-term forecast.

Technical Analysis

The index closed moderately lower today, moving down toward previous lows of the downtrend from January. Technical indicators are moderately bearish overall, favoring a continuation of the decline.

Cycle Analysis

A cycle high signal was generated today, indicating that the alpha high (AH) of the current cycle likely formed on August 9. We are 2 sessions into the alpha phase decline of the cycle following the short-term cycle low (STCL) on August 3. The magnitude and duration of the last beta phase decline reconfirms the current bearish translation and favors additional short-term weakness. The window during which the next STCL is likely to occur is from August 29 to September 13, with our best estimate being in the September 1 to September 8 range.

  • Last STCL: August 3, 2017
  • Cycle Duration: 6 sessions
  • Cycle Translation: Bearish
  • Next STCL Window: August 29 to September 13; best estimate in the September 1 to September 8 range.
  • Setup Status: Cycle high setup occurred today.
  • Trigger Status: Cycle high trigger occurred today.
  • Signal Status: Cycle high signal was generated today.
  • Stop Level: None active.

Short-term Outlook

  • Bullish Scenario: A rebound and close well above downtrend resistance near 94.75 would predict a move up toward congestion resistance in the 97.50 area.
  • Bearish Scenario: A close below the recent short-term low at 92.61 would reconfirm the downtrend from January and predict additional losses.

The bearish scenario is more likely (~70% probable).

Gold Daily Chart Analyses

The following technical and cycle analyses provide short-term forecasts for the gold market. For intermediate-term outlooks see the latest intermediate-term forecast and for long-term outlooks see the latest long-term forecast.

Technical Analysis

Gold closed moderately higher today, moving up to a new high for the uptrend from early July. Technical indicators are bullish overall, strongly favoring a continuation of the advance.

Cycle Analysis

We are 3 sessions into the alpha phase rally of the cycle following the short-term cycle low (STCL) on August 8. The magnitude of the current alpha phase rally signals the likely transition to a bullish translation and favors additional short-term strength. The window during which the next STCL is likely to occur is from August 24 to September 6, with our best estimate being in the August 25 to August 31 range.

  • Last STCL: August 8, 2017
  • Cycle Duration: 3 sessions
  • Cycle Translation: Bullish
  • Next STCL Window: August 24 to September 6; best estimate in the August 25 to August 31 range.
  • Setup Status: No active setups.
  • Trigger Status: No pending triggers.
  • Signal Status: No active signals.
  • Stop Level: None active.

Short-term Outlook

  • Bullish Scenario: A close well above the previous short-term high in June at 1,298 would reconfirm the uptrend from July and forecast additional gains.
  • Bearish Scenario: A reversal and close below the middle of the Bollinger bands at 1,264 would predict a move down toward the previous short-term low at 1,210.

The bullish scenario is more likely (~70% probable).

Oil Daily Chart Analyses

The following technical and cycle analyses provide short-term forecasts for the oil market. For intermediate-term outlooks see the latest intermediate-term forecast and for long-term outlooks see the latest long-term forecast.

Technical Analysis

Oil closed slightly higher today, holding below previous highs of the uptrend from June. Technical indicators are slightly bullish overall, tentatively favoring a continuation of the advance.

Cycle Analysis

We are 9 sessions into the alpha phase decline of the cycle following the short-term cycle low (STCL) on July 21. The formation of the latest STCL well above the STCL in June signals the likely transition to a bullish translation and favors additional short-term strength. The window during which the next STCL is likely to occur is now through August 23, with our best estimate being in the August 14 to August 18 range.

  • Last STCL: July 21, 2017
  • Cycle Duration: 14 sessions
  • Cycle Translation: Bullish
  • Next STCL Window: Now through August 23; best estimate in the August 14 to August 18 range.
  • Setup Status: No active setups.
  • Trigger Status: No pending triggers.
  • Signal Status: No active signals.
  • Stop Level: None active.

Short-term Outlook

  • Bullish Scenario: A rebound and close well above congestion resistance in the 50 area would reconfirm the uptrend from June and forecast additional gains.
  • Bearish Scenario: A close below the middle of the Bollinger bands at 48.37 would predict a return to the previous short-term low at 42.53.

The bullish scenario is slightly more likely (~60% probable).

Category: Forecasts, Short-term Forecasts


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