Short-term Forecast for August 21, 2017

| August 21, 2017

S&P 500 Index Daily Chart Analyses

The following technical and cycle analyses provide short-term forecasts for the S&P 500 index. For intermediate-term outlooks see the latest intermediate-term forecast and for long-term outlooks see the latest long-term forecast.

Technical Analysis

The index closed slightly higher today, continuing a test of support at the lower boundary of the uptrend from November. Technical indicators are moderately bearish overall, favoring a continuation of the decline from early August.

Cycle Analysis

We are 3 sessions into the beta phase decline of the cycle following the short-term cycle low (STCL) on July 6. Cycle translation is in question. A quick rebound followed by an extended alpha phase rally that moves up to new highs would reconfirm the current bullish translation and favor additional short-term strength. Alternatively, an extended beta phase decline that moves well below the last STCL at 2,410 would signal the likely transition to a bearish translation. The window during which the next STCL is likely to occur is now through September 6, with our best estimate being in the August 24 to August 30 range.

  • Last STCL: July 6, 2017
  • Cycle Duration: 31 sessions
  • Cycle Translation: Bullish
  • Next STCL Window: Now through September 6; best estimate in the August 24 to August 30 range.
  • Setup Status: No active setups.
  • Trigger Status: No pending triggers.
  • Signal Status: No active signals.
  • Stop Level: None active.

Short-term Outlook

  • Bullish Scenario: A rebound and close well above the previous short-term high at 2,483 would reconfirm the long-term uptrend and forecast additional gains.
  • Bearish Scenario: A close well below uptrend support near 2,428 would signal the start of a new downtrend and predict a return to congestion support in the 2,400 area.

The bearish scenario is more likely (~70% probable).

US 10-year Treasury Note Yield Daily Chart Analyses

The following technical and cycle analyses provide short-term forecasts for the 10-year Treasury note yield. For intermediate-term outlooks see the latest intermediate-term forecast and for long-term outlooks see the latest long-term forecast.

Technical Analysis

Yields closed slightly lower today, holding above previous lows of the downtrend from December. Technical indicators are moderately bearish overall, favoring a return to previous lows of the decline.

Cycle Analysis

We are 6 sessions into the rally phase of the cycle following the short-term cycle high (STCH) on July 28. A cycle high signal was generated on August 18, indicating that the latest STCH likely formed on August 16. Only a quick move above the stop level at 2.28% would invalidate the signal and suggest that the cycle from July is still in progress. Cycle translation is in question. An extended decline phase that moves below the second alpha low (AL) in June at 2.12% would reconfirm the current bearish translation and favor additional short-term weakness. Alternatively, a quick rebound followed by an extended rally phase that moves well above the STCH in early July at 2.39% would signal the likely transition to a bullish translation. The window during which the next STCH is likely to occur is now through September 11, with our best estimate being in the August 24 to August 30 range.

  • Last STCH: July 28, 2017
  • Cycle Duration: 17 sessions
  • Cycle Translation: Bearish
  • Next STCH Window: August 18 to September 11; best estimate in the August 24 to August 30 range.
  • Setup Status: Cycle high setup occurred on August 17.
  • Trigger Status: Cycle high trigger occurred on August 18.
  • Signal Status: Cycle high signal was generated on August 18.
  • Stop Level: 2.28%

Short-term Outlook

  • Bullish Scenario: A rebound and close above the previous short-term high at 2.39% would reconfirm the uptrend from June and forecast additional gains.
  • Bearish Scenario: A close below the recent short-term low at 2.19% would predict a return to the previous short-term low at 2.13%.

The bearish scenario is more likely (~70% probable).

US Dollar Index Daily Chart Analyses

The following technical and cycle analyses provide short-term forecasts for the US dollar index. For intermediate-term outlooks see the latest intermediate-term forecast and for long-term outlooks see the latest long-term forecast.

Technical Analysis

The index closed moderately lower today, moving down toward previous lows of the downtrend from January. Technical indicators are moderately bearish overall, favoring a continuation of the decline.

Cycle Analysis

We are 4 sessions into the beta phase decline of the cycle following the short-term cycle low (STCL) on August 3. Cycle translation is in question. An extended beta phase decline that moves below the last STCL at 92.61 would reconfirm the current bearish translation and favor additional short-term weakness. Alternatively, a quick rebound followed by an extended alpha phase rally that moves well above the last alpha high (AH) at 93.52 would signal the likely transition to a bullish translation. The window during which the next STCL is likely to occur is now through September 13, with our best estimate being in the August 22 to August 28 range.

  • Last STCL: August 3, 2017
  • Cycle Duration: 11 sessions
  • Cycle Translation: Bearish
  • Next STCL Window: Now through September 13; best estimate in the¬†August 22 to August 28 range.
  • Setup Status: No active setups.
  • Trigger Status: No pending triggers.
  • Signal Status: No active signals.
  • Stop Level: None active.

Short-term Outlook

  • Bullish Scenario: A rebound and close well above downtrend resistance near 94.85 would predict a move up toward congestion resistance in the 97.50 area.
  • Bearish Scenario: A close below the recent short-term low at 92.61 would reconfirm the downtrend from January and predict additional losses.

The bearish scenario is more likely (~70% probable).

Gold Daily Chart Analyses

The following technical and cycle analyses provide short-term forecasts for the gold market. For intermediate-term outlooks see the latest intermediate-term forecast and for long-term outlooks see the latest long-term forecast.

Technical Analysis

Gold closed moderately higher today, returning to previous highs of the uptrend from early July. Technical indicators are bullish overall, strongly favoring a continuation of the advance.

Cycle Analysis

We are 4 sessions into the beta phase rally of the cycle following the short-term cycle low (STCL) on August 8. The magnitude of the last alpha phase rally signals the likely transition to a bullish translation and favors additional short-term strength. The window during which the next STCL is likely to occur is from August 24 to September 6, with our best estimate being in the August 25 to August 31 range.

  • Last STCL: August 8, 2017
  • Cycle Duration: 9 sessions
  • Cycle Translation: Bullish
  • Next STCL Window: August 24 to September 6; best estimate in the August 25 to August 31 range.
  • Setup Status: No active setups.
  • Trigger Status: No pending triggers.
  • Signal Status: No active signals.
  • Stop Level: None active.

Short-term Outlook

  • Bullish Scenario: A close well above the previous short-term high in June at 1,298 would reconfirm the uptrend from July and forecast additional gains.
  • Bearish Scenario: A reversal and close well below the middle of the Bollinger bands at 1,277 would predict a move down toward the previous short-term low at 1,210.

The bullish scenario is more likely (~70% probable).

Oil Daily Chart Analyses

The following technical and cycle analyses provide short-term forecasts for the oil market. For intermediate-term outlooks see the latest intermediate-term forecast and for long-term outlooks see the latest long-term forecast.

Technical Analysis

Oil closed sharply lower today, retreating from previous highs of the uptrend from June. Technical indicators are neutral to slightly bearish overall, suggesting that direction is in question with a slight downward bias.

Cycle Analysis

We are 3 sessions into the alpha phase rally of the cycle following the short-term cycle low (STCL) on August 16. An extended alpha phase rally that moves above the last alpha high (AH) at 50.17 would reconfirm the current bullish translation and favor additional short-term strength. Alternatively, a quick reversal followed by an extended alpha phase decline that approaches the previous STCL at 45.62 would suggest that cycle translation is in question. The window during which the next STCL is likely to occur is from September 5 to September 19, with our best estimate being in the September 8 to September 14 range.

  • Last STCL: August 16, 2017
  • Cycle Duration: 3 sessions
  • Cycle Translation: Bullish
  • Next STCL Window: September 5 to September 19; best estimate in the September 8 to September 14 range.
  • Setup Status: No active setups.
  • Trigger Status: No pending triggers.
  • Signal Status: No active signals.
  • Stop Level: None active.

Short-term Outlook

  • Bullish Scenario: A rebound and close well above congestion resistance in the 50 area would reconfirm the uptrend from June and forecast additional gains.
  • Bearish Scenario: A close below the recent short-term low at 46.78 would predict a move down toward the previous short-term low at 42.53.

Both scenarios are equally likely.

Category: Forecasts, Short-term Forecasts


Comments are closed.