Potential Short-term Signal: 10-year Treasury Note Yield Cycle Analysis

| September 1, 2017

The advance today has caused both short-term cycle oscillators to experience bullish crossovers and a bullish engulf pattern has formed on the daily chart. A close above 2.14% today would generate a cycle low signal and indicate that the alpha low (AL) of the current short-term cycle likely formed on August 29.

Cycle translation is in question. A quick reversal followed by an extended decline phase that moves below the developing AL at 2.09% would reconfirm the current bearish translation and favor additional short-term weakness. Alternatively, an extended rally phase that moves well above the last short-term cycle high (STCH) at 2.28% would signal the likely transition to a bullish translation.

Category: Signals, Treasuries


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