Short-term Forecast for September 1, 2017

| September 1, 2017

S&P 500 Index Daily Chart Analyses

The following technical and cycle analyses provide short-term forecasts for the S&P 500 index. For intermediate-term outlooks see the latest intermediate-term forecast and for long-term outlooks see the latest long-term forecast.

Technical Analysis

The index closed slightly higher today, holding near previous highs of the uptrend from 2016. Technical indicators are slightly bullish overall, tentatively favoring a continuation of the advance.

Cycle Analysis

We are 10 sessions into the alpha phase rally of the cycle following the short-term cycle low (STCL) on August 21. Cycle translation is in question. An extended alpha phase rally that moves above the last alpha high (AH) at 2,483 would reconfirm the current bullish translation and favor additional short-term strength. Alternatively, a quick reversal followed by an extended alpha phase decline that moves well below the STCL in early July at 2,408 would signal the likely transition to a bearish translation. The window during which the next STCL is likely to occur is from September 29 to October 19, with our best estimate being in the October 11 to October 17 range.

  • Last STCL: August 21, 2017
  • Cycle Duration: 10 sessions
  • Cycle Translation: Bullish
  • Next STCL Window: September 29 to October 19; best estimate in the October 11 to October 17.
  • Setup Status: No active setups.
  • Trigger Status: No pending triggers.
  • Signal Status: No active signals.
  • Stop Level: None active.

Short-term Outlook

  • Bullish Scenario: A close well above the previous short-term high at 2,483 would reconfirm the long-term uptrend and forecast additional gains.
  • Bearish Scenario: A reversal and close well below uptrend support near 2,437 would signal the start of a new downtrend and predict a return to congestion support in the 2,400 area.

The bullish scenario is slightly more likely (~60% probable).

US 10-year Treasury Note Yield Daily Chart Analyses

The following technical and cycle analyses provide short-term forecasts for the 10-year Treasury note yield. For intermediate-term outlooks see the latest intermediate-term forecast and for long-term outlooks see the latest long-term forecast.

Technical Analysis

Yields closed moderately higher today, reacting off of previous lows of the downtrend from December. Technical indicators are moderately bearish overall, favoring a continuation of the decline.

Cycle Analysis

A cycle low signal was generated today, indicating that the alpha low (AL) of the current cycle likely formed on August 29. We are 4 sessions into the rally phase of the cycle following the short-term cycle high (STCH) on August 16. Cycle translation is in question. A quick reversal followed by an extended decline phase that moves below the last AL at 2.09% would reconfirm the current bearish translation and favor additional short-term weakness. Alternatively, an extended rally phase that moves well above the last STCH at 2.28% would signal the likely transition to a bullish translation. The window during which the next STCH is likely to occur is from September 6 to September 27, with our best estimate being in the September 12 to September 18 range.

  • Last STCH: August 16, 2017
  • Cycle Duration: 13 sessions
  • Cycle Translation: Bearish
  • Next STCH Window: September 6 to September 27; best estimate in the September 12 to September 18 range.
  • Setup Status: No active setups.
  • Trigger Status: No pending triggers.
  • Signal Status: No active signals.
  • Stop Level: None active.

Short-term Outlook

  • Bullish Scenario: A close well above the middle of the Bollinger bands at 2.20% would predict a move up toward the previous short-term high at 2.39%.
  • Bearish Scenario: A reversal and close below the previous short-term low at 2.11% would reconfirm the downtrend from December and forecast additional losses.

The bearish scenario is more likely (~70% probable).

US Dollar Index Daily Chart Analyses

The following technical and cycle analyses provide short-term forecasts for the US dollar index. For intermediate-term outlooks see the latest intermediate-term forecast and for long-term outlooks see the latest long-term forecast.

Technical Analysis

The index closed slightly higher today, holding above previous lows of the downtrend from January. Technical indicators are neutral to slightly bearish overall, suggesting that direction is in question with a slight downward bias.

Cycle Analysis

We are 3 sessions into the alpha phase rally of the cycle following the short-term cycle low (STCL) on August 29. Cycle translation is in question. A quick reversal followed by an extended alpha phase decline that moves well below the last STCL at 92.18 would reconfirm the current bearish translation and favor additional short-term weakness. Alternatively, an extended alpha phase rally that moves well above the last beta high (BH) at 94.06 would signal the likely transition to a bullish translation. The window during which the next STCL is likely to occur is from September 25 to October 9, with our best estimate being in the September 28 to October 4 range.

  • Last STCL: August 29, 2017
  • Cycle Duration: 3 sessions
  • Cycle Translation: Bearish
  • Next STCL Window: September 25 to October 9; best estimate in the September 28 to October 4 range.
  • Setup Status: No active setups.
  • Trigger Status: No pending triggers.
  • Signal Status: No active signals.
  • Stop Level: None active.

Short-term Outlook

  • Bullish Scenario: A close well above downtrend resistance near 93.75 would predict a move up toward congestion resistance in the 97.50 area.
  • Bearish Scenario: A close below the recent short-term low at 92.18 would reconfirm the downtrend from January and predict additional losses.

Both scenarios are equally likely.

Gold Daily Chart Analyses

The following technical and cycle analyses provide short-term forecasts for the gold market. For intermediate-term outlooks see the latest intermediate-term forecast and for long-term outlooks see the latest long-term forecast.

Technical Analysis

Gold closed moderately higher today, moving up to a new high for the uptrend from July. Technical indicators are extremely bullish overall, strongly favoring a continuation of the advance.

Cycle Analysis

We are 6 sessions into the alpha phase rally of the cycle following the short-term cycle low (STCL) on August 25. The magnitude and duration of the current alpha phase rally reconfirms the current bullish translation and favors additional short-term strength. The window during which the next STCL is likely to occur is from September 13 to September 25, with our best estimate being in the September 14 to September 20 range.

  • Last STCL: August 25, 2017
  • Cycle Duration: 6 sessions
  • Cycle Translation: Bullish
  • Next STCL Window: September 13 to September 25; best estimate in the September 14 to September 20 range.
  • Setup Status: No active setups.
  • Trigger Status: No pending triggers.
  • Signal Status: No active signals.
  • Stop Level: None active.

Short-term Outlook

  • Bullish Scenario: A close above current levels would reconfirm the uptrend from July and forecast additional gains.
  • Bearish Scenario: A reversal and close well below the middle of the Bollinger bands at 1,295 would predict a move down toward the previous short-term low at 1,210.

The bullish scenario is highly likely (>80% probable).

Oil Daily Chart Analyses

The following technical and cycle analyses provide short-term forecasts for the oil market. For intermediate-term outlooks see the latest intermediate-term forecast and for long-term outlooks see the latest long-term forecast.

Technical Analysis

Oil closed slightly higher today, holding above congestion support at the 45.50 level. Technical indicators are neutral to slightly bearish overall, suggesting that direction is in question with a slight downward bias.

Cycle Analysis

We are 2 sessions into the beta phase rally of the cycle following the short-term cycle low (STCL) on August 16. Cycle translation is in question. An extended beta phase rally that moves above the alpha high (AH) in late July at 50.17 would reconfirm the current bullish translation and favor additional short-term strength. Alternatively, a quick reversal followed by an extended beta phase decline that moves well below the last beta low (BL) at 45.96 would signal the likely transition to a bearish translation. The window during which the next STCL is likely to occur is from September 5 to September 19, with our best estimate being in the September 8 to September 14 range.

  • Last STCL: August 16, 2017
  • Cycle Duration: 12 sessions
  • Cycle Translation: Bullish
  • Next STCL Window: September 5 to September 19; best estimate in the September 8 to September 14 range.
  • Setup Status: No active setups.
  • Trigger Status: No pending triggers.
  • Signal Status: No active signals.
  • Stop Level: None active.

Short-term Outlook

  • Bullish Scenario: A rebound and close well above congestion resistance in the 50 area would reconfirm the uptrend from June and forecast additional gains.
  • Bearish Scenario: A close below the recent short-term low at 45.96 would predict a move down toward the previous short-term low at 42.53.

Both scenarios are equally likely.

Category: Forecasts, Short-term Forecasts


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