Short-term Forecast for September 5, 2017

| September 5, 2017

S&P 500 Index Daily Chart Analyses

The following technical and cycle analyses provide short-term forecasts for the S&P 500 index. For intermediate-term outlooks see the latest intermediate-term forecast and for long-term outlooks see the latest long-term forecast.

Technical Analysis

The index closed moderately lower today, retreating from previous highs of the uptrend from 2016. Technical indicators are effectively neutral overall, suggesting that direction is in question.

Cycle Analysis

We are 11 sessions into the alpha phase rally of the cycle following the short-term cycle low (STCL) on August 21. Cycle translation is in question. An extended alpha phase rally that moves above the last alpha high (AH) at 2,483 would reconfirm the current bullish translation and favor additional short-term strength. Alternatively, a quick reversal followed by an extended alpha phase decline that moves well below the STCL in early July at 2,408 would signal the likely transition to a bearish translation. The window during which the next STCL is likely to occur is from September 29 to October 19, with our best estimate being in the October 11 to October 17 range.

  • Last STCL: August 21, 2017
  • Cycle Duration: 11 sessions
  • Cycle Translation: Bullish
  • Next STCL Window: September 29 to October 19; best estimate in the October 11 to October 17.
  • Setup Status: No active setups.
  • Trigger Status: No pending triggers.
  • Signal Status: No active signals.
  • Stop Level: None active.

Short-term Outlook

  • Bullish Scenario: A rebound and close well above the previous short-term high at 2,483 would reconfirm the long-term uptrend and forecast additional gains.
  • Bearish Scenario: A close well below uptrend support near 2,438 would signal the start of a new downtrend and predict a return to congestion support in the 2,400 area.

Both scenarios are equally likely.

US 10-year Treasury Note Yield Daily Chart Analyses

The following technical and cycle analyses provide short-term forecasts for the 10-year Treasury note yield. For intermediate-term outlooks see the latest intermediate-term forecast and for long-term outlooks see the latest long-term forecast.

Technical Analysis

Yields closed sharply lower today, moving down to a new low for the downtrend from December. Technical indicators are extremely bearish overall, strongly favoring a continuation of the decline.

Cycle Analysis

The sharp decline today indicates that the decline phase of the current cycle is likely still in progress. We are 14 sessions into the decline phase of the cycle following the short-term cycle high (STCH) on August 16. The alpha low (AL) will likely form sometime during the next 3 sessions. The magnitude and duration of the current decline phase reconfirms the current bearish translation and favors additional short-term weakness. The window during which the next STCH is likely to occur is from September 6 to September 27, with our best estimate being in the September 12 to September 18 range.

  • Last STCH: August 16, 2017
  • Cycle Duration: 14 sessions
  • Cycle Translation: Bearish
  • Next STCH Window: September 6 to September 27; best estimate in the September 12 to September 18 range.
  • Setup Status: No active setups.
  • Trigger Status: No pending triggers.
  • Signal Status: No active signals.
  • Stop Level: None active.

Short-term Outlook

  • Bullish Scenario: A rebound and close well above the middle of the Bollinger bands at 2.19% would predict a move up toward the previous short-term high at 2.39%.
  • Bearish Scenario: A close below current levels would reconfirm the downtrend from December and forecast additional losses.

The bearish scenario is highly likely (>80% probable).

US Dollar Index Daily Chart Analyses

The following technical and cycle analyses provide short-term forecasts for the US dollar index. For intermediate-term outlooks see the latest intermediate-term forecast and for long-term outlooks see the latest long-term forecast.

Technical Analysis

The index closed moderately lower today, moving down toward previous lows of the downtrend from January. Technical indicators are moderately bearish overall, favoring a continuation of the decline.

Cycle Analysis

We are 3 sessions into the alpha phase rally of the cycle following the short-term cycle low (STCL) on August 29. A cycle high signal was nearly generated today, suggesting that the alpha high (AH) of the current cycle may have formed on August 31. A close below current levels during the next session would generate a cycle high signal and indicate that the alpha phase decline of the current cycle is likely in progress. An extended alpha phase decline that moves well below the last STCL at 92.18 would reconfirm the current bearish translation and favor additional short-term weakness. Alternatively, a quick rebound followed by an extended beta phase rally that moves well above the last beta high (BH) at 94.06 would signal the likely transition to a bullish translation. The window during which the next STCL is likely to occur is from September 25 to October 9, with our best estimate being in the September 28 to October 4 range.

  • Last STCL: August 29, 2017
  • Cycle Duration: 5 sessions
  • Cycle Translation: Bearish
  • Next STCL Window: September 25 to October 9; best estimate in the September 28 to October 4 range.
  • Setup Status: No active setups.
  • Trigger Status: No pending triggers.
  • Signal Status: No active signals.
  • Stop Level: None active.

Short-term Outlook

  • Bullish Scenario: A rebound and close well above downtrend resistance near 92.70 would predict a move up toward congestion resistance in the 97.50 area.
  • Bearish Scenario: A close below the recent short-term low at 92.18 would reconfirm the downtrend from January and predict additional losses.

The bearish scenario is more likely (~70% probable).

Gold Daily Chart Analyses

The following technical and cycle analyses provide short-term forecasts for the gold market. For intermediate-term outlooks see the latest intermediate-term forecast and for long-term outlooks see the latest long-term forecast.

Technical Analysis

Gold closed moderately higher today, moving up to a new high for the uptrend from July. Technical indicators are extremely bullish overall, strongly favoring a continuation of the advance.

Cycle Analysis

We are 7 sessions into the alpha phase rally of the cycle following the short-term cycle low (STCL) on August 25. The magnitude and duration of the current alpha phase rally reconfirms the current bullish translation and favors additional short-term strength. The window during which the next STCL is likely to occur is from September 13 to September 25, with our best estimate being in the September 14 to September 20 range.

  • Last STCL: August 25, 2017
  • Cycle Duration: 7 sessions
  • Cycle Translation: Bullish
  • Next STCL Window: September 13 to September 25; best estimate in the September 14 to September 20 range.
  • Setup Status: No active setups.
  • Trigger Status: No pending triggers.
  • Signal Status: No active signals.
  • Stop Level: None active.

Short-term Outlook

  • Bullish Scenario: A close above current levels would reconfirm the uptrend from July and forecast additional gains.
  • Bearish Scenario: A reversal and close well below the middle of the Bollinger bands at 1,299 would predict a move down toward the bottom of the Bollinger bands at 1,261.

The bullish scenario is highly likely (>80% probable).

Oil Daily Chart Analyses

The following technical and cycle analyses provide short-term forecasts for the oil market. For intermediate-term outlooks see the latest intermediate-term forecast and for long-term outlooks see the latest long-term forecast.

Technical Analysis

Oil closed sharply higher today, moving up toward previous highs of the uptrend from June. Technical indicators are neutral to slightly bullish overall, suggesting that direction is in question with a slight upward bias.

Cycle Analysis

We are 3 sessions into the beta phase rally of the cycle following the short-term cycle low (STCL) on August 16. Cycle translation is in question. An extended beta phase rally that moves above the alpha high (AH) in late July at 50.17 would reconfirm the current bullish translation and favor additional short-term strength. Alternatively, a quick reversal followed by an extended beta phase decline that moves well below the last beta low (BL) at 45.96 would signal the likely transition to a bearish translation. The window during which the next STCL is likely to occur is now through September 19, with our best estimate being in the September 8 to September 14 range.

  • Last STCL: August 16, 2017
  • Cycle Duration: 13 sessions
  • Cycle Translation: Bullish
  • Next STCL Window: Now through September 19; best estimate in the September 8 to September 14 range.
  • Setup Status: No active setups.
  • Trigger Status: No pending triggers.
  • Signal Status: No active signals.
  • Stop Level: None active.

Short-term Outlook

  • Bullish Scenario: A close well above congestion resistance in the 50 area would reconfirm the uptrend from June and forecast additional gains.
  • Bearish Scenario: A reversal and close below the recent short-term low at 45.96 would predict a move down toward the previous short-term low at 42.53.

Both scenarios are equally likely.

Category: Forecasts, Short-term Forecasts


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