Short-term Forecast for September 11, 2017

| September 11, 2017

S&P 500 Index Daily Chart Analyses

The following technical and cycle analyses provide short-term forecasts for the S&P 500 index. For intermediate-term outlooks see the latest intermediate-term forecast and for long-term outlooks see the latest long-term forecast.

Technical Analysis

The index closed sharply higher today, moving up to a new high for the uptrend from 2016. Technical indicators are moderately bullish overall, favoring a continuation of the advance.

Cycle Analysis

A cycle low signal was generated today, indicating that the beta low (BL) of the current cycle likely formed on September 8. We are 1 session into the beta phase rally of the cycle following the short-term cycle low (STCL) on August 21. An extended beta phase rally that moves well above the alpha high (AH) in July at 2,483 would reconfirm the current bullish translation and favor additional short-term strength. Alternatively, a quick reversal followed by an extended beta phase decline that moves well below the STCL in early July at 2,408 would signal the likely transition to a bearish translation. The window during which the next STCL is likely to occur is from September 29 to October 19, with our best estimate being in the October 5 to October 11 range.

  • Last STCL: August 21, 2017
  • Cycle Duration: 15 sessions
  • Cycle Translation: Bullish
  • Next STCL Window: September 29 to October 19; best estimate in the October 5 to October 11.
  • Setup Status: Cycle low setup occurred today.
  • Trigger Status: Cycle low trigger occurred today.
  • Signal Status: Cycle low signal was generated today.
  • Stop Level: None active.

Short-term Outlook

  • Bullish Scenario: A close above current levels would reconfirm the long-term uptrend and forecast additional gains.
  • Bearish Scenario: A reversal and close well below uptrend support near 2,442 would signal the likely start of a new downtrend and predict a move down toward congestion support in the 2,400 area.

The bullish scenario is more likely (~70% probable).

US 10-year Treasury Note Yield Daily Chart Analyses

The following technical and cycle analyses provide short-term forecasts for the 10-year Treasury note yield. For intermediate-term outlooks see the latest intermediate-term forecast and for long-term outlooks see the latest long-term forecast.

Technical Analysis

Yields closed sharply higher today, reacting off of recent lows of the downtrend from December. Technical indicators are slightly bearish overall, tentatively favoring a continuation of the decline.

Cycle Analysis

A cycle low signal was generated today, indicating that the alpha low (AL) of the current cycle likely formed on September 8. We are 2 sessions into the rally phase of the cycle following the short-term cycle high (STCH) on August 16. The magnitude and duration of the last decline phase reconfirms the current bearish translation and favors additional short-term weakness. The window during which the next STCH is likely to occur is now through September 27, with our best estimate being in the September 15 to September 21 range.

  • Last STCH: August 16, 2017
  • Cycle Duration: 18 sessions
  • Cycle Translation: Bearish
  • Next STCH Window: Now through September 27; best estimate in the September 15 to September 21 range.
  • Setup Status: Cycle low setup occurred today.
  • Trigger Status: Cycle low trigger occurred today.
  • Signal Status: Cycle low signal was generated today.
  • Stop Level: None active.

Short-term Outlook

  • Bullish Scenario: A close well above the middle of the Bollinger bands at 2.16% would predict a move up toward the top of the Bollinger bands at 2.27%.
  • Bearish Scenario: A reversal and close below the recent short-term low at 2.04% would reconfirm the downtrend from December and forecast additional losses.

The bearish scenario is slightly more likely (~60% probable).

US Dollar Index Daily Chart Analyses

The following technical and cycle analyses provide short-term forecasts for the US dollar index. For intermediate-term outlooks see the latest intermediate-term forecast and for long-term outlooks see the latest long-term forecast.

Technical Analysis

The index closed moderately higher today, reacting off of recent lows of the downtrend from January. Technical indicators are moderately bearish overall, favoring a continuation of the decline.

Cycle Analysis

A cycle low signal was generated today, indicating that the beta low (BL) of the current cycle likely formed on September 8. We are 1 session into the beta phase rally of the cycle following the short-term cycle low (STCL) on August 29. The magnitude and duration of the last alpha phase decline reconfirms the current bearish translation and favors additional short-term weakness. The window during which the next STCL is likely to occur is from September 25 to October 9, with our best estimate being in the September 25 to September 29 range.

  • Last STCL: August 29, 2017
  • Cycle Duration: 9 sessions
  • Cycle Translation: Bearish
  • Next STCL Window: September 25 to October 9; best estimate in the┬áSeptember 25 to September 29 range.
  • Setup Status: Cycle low setup occurred today.
  • Trigger Status: Cycle low trigger occurred today.
  • Signal Status: Cycle low signal was generated today.
  • Stop Level: None active.

Short-term Outlook

  • Bullish Scenario: A close well above downtrend resistance near 92.30 would predict a move up to the top of the Bollinger bands at 94.07.
  • Bearish Scenario: A reversal and close below the recent short-term low at 91.33 would reconfirm the downtrend from January and predict additional losses.

The bearish scenario is slightly more likely (~60% probable).

Gold Daily Chart Analyses

The following technical and cycle analyses provide short-term forecasts for the gold market. For intermediate-term outlooks see the latest intermediate-term forecast and for long-term outlooks see the latest long-term forecast.

Technical Analysis

Gold closed sharply lower today, retreating from previous highs of the uptrend from July. Technical indicators are slightly bullish overall, tentatively favoring a continuation of the advance.

Cycle Analysis

A cycle high signal was generated today, indicating that the alpha high (AH) of the current cycle likely formed on September 8. We are 1 session into the alpha phase decline of the cycle following the short-term cycle low (STCL) on August 25. The magnitude and duration of the last alpha phase rally reconfirms the current bullish translation and favors additional short-term strength. The window during which the next STCL is likely to occur is from September 13 to September 25, with our best estimate being in the September 18 to September 22 range.

  • Last STCL: August 25, 2017
  • Cycle Duration: 11 sessions
  • Cycle Translation: Bullish
  • Next STCL Window: September 13 to September 25; best estimate in the September 18 to September 22 range.
  • Setup Status: Cycle high setup occurred today.
  • Trigger Status: Cycle high trigger occurred today.
  • Signal Status: Cycle high signal was generated today.
  • Stop Level: None active.

Short-term Outlook

  • Bullish Scenario: A rebound and close above the recent short-term high at 1,354 would reconfirm the uptrend from July and forecast additional gains.
  • Bearish Scenario: A close well below the middle of the Bollinger bands at 1,312 would predict a move down toward the bottom of the Bollinger bands at 1,266.

The bullish scenario is slightly more likely (~60% probable).

Oil Daily Chart Analyses

The following technical and cycle analyses provide short-term forecasts for the oil market. For intermediate-term outlooks see the latest intermediate-term forecast and for long-term outlooks see the latest long-term forecast.

Technical Analysis

Oil closed moderately higher today, moving up toward resistance at the upper boundary of the downtrend from February near 49. Technical indicators are effectively neutral overall, suggesting that direction is in question.

Cycle Analysis

We are 3 sessions into the beta phase decline of the cycle following the short-term cycle low (STCL) on August 16. Cycle translation is in question. A quick rebound followed by an extended alpha phase rally that moves above the alpha high (AH) in late July at 50.17 would reconfirm the current bullish translation and favor additional short-term strength. Alternatively, an extended beta phase decline that moves well below the last beta low (BL) at 45.96 would signal the likely transition to a bearish translation. The window during which the next STCL is likely to occur is now through September 19, with our best estimate being now through September 14.

  • Last STCL: August 16, 2017
  • Cycle Duration: 17 sessions
  • Cycle Translation: Bullish
  • Next STCL Window: Now through September 19; best estimate now through September 14.
  • Setup Status: No active setups.
  • Trigger Status: No pending triggers.
  • Signal Status: No active signals.
  • Stop Level: None active.

Short-term Outlook

  • Bullish Scenario: A close well above congestion resistance in the 50 area would reconfirm the uptrend from June and forecast additional gains.
  • Bearish Scenario: A reversal and close below the recent short-term low at 45.96 would predict a move down toward the previous short-term low at 42.53.

Both scenarios are equally likely.

Category: Forecasts, Short-term Forecasts


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