Potential Short-term Signal: 10-year Treasury Note Yield Cycle Analysis

| September 25, 2017

The decline today has caused both short-term cycle oscillators to experience bearish crossovers and a bearish engulf pattern has formed on the daily chart. A close below 2.23% today would generate a cycle high signal and indicate that the latest short-term cycle high (STCH) likely formed on September 21.

Cycle translation is in question. An extended decline phase that moves below the last alpha low (AL) at 2.03% would reconfirm the current bearish translation and favor additional short-term weakness. Alternatively, a quick rebound followed by an extended rally phase that moves well above the developing STCH at 2.28% would signal the likely transition to a bullish translation.

Category: Signals, Treasuries


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