Potential Short-term Signal: 10-year Treasury Note Yield Cycle Analysis

| October 18, 2017

The advance today has caused both short-term cycle oscillators to experience bullish crossovers and a bullish engulf pattern has formed on the daily chart. A close above 2.33% today would generate a cycle low signal and indicate that the alpha low (AL) of the current short-term cycle likely formed on October 13.

An extended rally phase that moves above the last short-term cycle high (STCH) at 2.40% would reconfirm the current bullish translation and favor additional short-term strength. Alternatively, a quick reversal followed by an extended decline phase that moves below the AL in late September at 2.22% would signal the likely transition to a bearish translation.

Category: Signals, Treasuries


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