Potential Intermediate-term Signal: Stock Market Cycle Analysis

| February 1, 2018

The decline this week has caused both intermediate-term cycle oscillators to experience bearish crossovers. A weekly close below 2,798 on the S&P 500 index on Friday would generate a cycle high signal and indicate that the second half cycle high (HCH) of the current intermediate-term cycle likely formed during the week ending January 26. Even if a confirmed cycle high signal is not generated tomorrow, given that the HCH is overdue, it is likely that the second decline phase of the current cycle is now in progress. Only a strong advance tomorrow that returns the S&P 500 index to recent highs would suggest that the second rally phase of the current cycle is still in progress.

The magnitude and duration of the current rally phase reconfirms the current bullish translation and favors additional intermediate-term strength during the next cycle.

Category: Signals, Stocks

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