Potential Intermediate-term Signal: Stock Market Cycle Analysis

| March 22, 2018

The decline this week has caused both intermediate-term cycle oscillators to experience bearish crossovers, and a bearish engulf pattern has formed on the weekly chart. A weekly close below 2,681 on the S&P 500 index on Friday would generate a cycle high signal and indicate that a half cycle high (HCH) of the current intermediate-term cycle likely formed during the week ending March 16.

The confirmed formation of the latest intermediate-term high below the previous high in January coupled with a subsequent weekly close well below the last intermediate-term cycle low (ITCL) at 2,532 would be a significant bearish development favoring additional weakness heading into the next meaningful low in June or July. Therefore, it will be important to monitor market behavior closely during the next few weeks.

Category: Signals, Stocks

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