Potential Short-term Signal: Stock Market Cycle Analysis

| April 20, 2018

The decline today has caused both short-term cycle oscillators to experience bearish crossovers, and a bearish engulf pattern has nearly formed on the daily chart. A close below 2,670 on the S&P 500 index today would generate a cycle high signal and indicate that the alpha high (AH) of the current short-term cycle likely formed on April 18.

Cycle translation is in question. An extended alpha phase decline that moves below the short-term cycle low (STCL) in February at 2,532 would reconfirm the current bearish translation and favor additional short-term weakness. Alternatively, a quick rebound followed by an extended beta phase rally that moves well above the last beta high (BH) at 2,792 would signal the likely transition to a bullish translation.

Category: Signals, Stocks

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